Americans’ view of GOP tax bill dim
Poll: Majority skeptical plan will help them, economy
“It’s fairly favorable to the highest earners and to corporations . ... What I think is likely to happen is you’re going to see higher dividends paid out to shareholders, who already are some of the wealthiest people in the country.”
Republican leaders champion the tax bill they’re hoping to pass before Christmas as a significant boon for most Americans that will drive the U.S. economy to new heights. Just one problem: Most Americans don’t seem to be buying it.
In a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, 48 percent of respondents opposed the tax code overhaul, and 53 percent said they didn’t expect their own families to pay any less if it passes. The same percentage predicted no major boost to the economy.
Republican voters were bullish on the legislation, the poll found, but political experts predict it could hurt the party at the ballot box in next year’s midterm elections, much as “Obamacare” contributed to Democrats’ losses in 2010.
Thomas Beline Washington lawyer who responded to the poll about the GOP tax overhaul plan
WASHINGTON – Congressional Republicans are poised to pass the biggest tax overhaul in a generation, but Americans remain unconvinced that the measure will cut their own taxes or significantly boost the economy.
A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds 32% support the GOP tax plan; 48% oppose it. That’s the lowest level of public support for any major piece of legislation enacted in the past three decades, including the Affordable Care Act in 2009.
Americans are skeptical of the fundamental arguments Republicans made in selling the bill: A 53% majority of those surveyed predict their own families won’t pay lower taxes as a result of the measure, and an equal 53% say it won’t help the economy in a major way.
A conference committee is trying to reconcile the House and Senate versions of the bill, and congressional leaders are optimistic that a final version will be on President Trump’s desk by Christmas.
“It’s fairly favorable to the highest earners and to corporations,” says Thomas Beline, 36, a lawyer in Washington, who was among those surveyed. “I have a dim view of the ability of corporations to take that money and hire people or invest in R&D (research and
development). What I think is likely to happen is you’re going to see higher dividends paid out to shareholders, who already are some of the wealthiest people in the country.”
The findings underscore the risk for Republicans even as they move toward achieving one of the party’s top policy priorities and delivering the first major legislative achievement of the Trump administration. Christopher Warshaw, a political scientist at the George Washington University, cautions that passage of the bill would make it more likely Democrats win control of the House in next year’s midterm elections, akin to the electoral price Democrats paid in the 2010 midterms for passing Obamacare.
“In recent decades, Congress has never passed a major bill this unpopular,” Warshaw says. “I think that passing this bill will substantially hurt the GOP brand — particularly among moderate, well-educated suburban voters and among the working-class white voters that switched over to support Trump in 2016. I think this will cost Republican members of Congress votes in the midterms, and it may hurt Trump in 2020. It makes it very hard for Trump or the GOP to claim that they have a populist agenda.”
One reason the GOP is moving ahead is that Republican voters are enthusiastic. In the survey, they back the tax bill by an overwhelming 71%-12%. Two-thirds of Republicans predict their own taxes will be cut, and nearly three-fourths say the bill will significantly boost the nation’s economy.
“I work for a small business ... and the owner has talked about the things he could do if we enact this tax bill,” says Chad Dunlap, 42, of Wapakoneta, Ohio, who was called in the poll. Dunlap, the business-development manager for a roofing company, was elected last month to the Wapakoneta City Council. “He could invest and have better equipment for our people, better income for our crews.”
Haven Gillispie, 37, a sales representative from Jamestown, N.Y., hears conflicting reports on the impact of the bill. “I don’t know exactly what’s in it,” she says. “But Trump is promising it’s going to help working families, so I’m relying on that.”
Overall, 35% say the bill will boost the economy, and 31% say their own families’ tax bills will be lowered as a result.
Negotiations between the House and Senate continued through the weekend. Both versions of the bill would cut taxes by about $1.5 trillion over the next decade, slashing the corporate tax rate and doubling the standard deduction used by most Americans. There are some significant differences, and Republicans are divided over whether and how to ameliorate the impact on residents of such high-tax states as New York, New Jersey and California.
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office and the non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation concluded in separate studies that the Republican proposals would help wealthier Americans the most.