Warmer weather worsens drought

The January 2018 Phoenix weather statistics by themselves aren’t particularly remarkable, but a look at the bigger picture will get your attention.

January 2018 was the third-warmest ever for Phoenix when you look at the average temperature of 61.2 degrees. Average daily temperature is determined by adding the daily highs and lows and dividing by two.

And it was the 34th driest month for the city with just 0.21 inch of rain recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, according to the National Weather Service in Phoenix.

When you consider that 2017 was the warmest year ever for Phoenix and the city had only 4.96 inches of rain (8.03 is normal), the January 2018 numbers take on additional significance.

The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50 percent probability of above-normal temperatures and a 40 percent probability (50 percent in the southeastern corner of the state) of below-normal rain and snowfall for the next three months, so it’s easy to see why there could be cause for concern.

The most recent map for Arizona from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the entire state is experiencing moderate drought conditions and about half is in the severe drought category. Parts of southeastern and east-central Arizona are in the extreme drought category.

A year ago, after a wet start to the

“I think drought is going to be a big story for Arizona this spring.” Mike Crimmins Associate professor and climate science extension specialist, University of Arizona

winter of 2016-17, most of Arizona was in the no drought or abnormally dry categories.

Mike Crimmins is an associate professor and climate science extension specialist at the University of Arizona. He also serves as a droughtmonitoring expert on the Governor’s Drought Task Force.

He explained that the Drought Monitor categories

Three high-temperature records were set in Phoenix in January.

roughly represent how frequently various levels of drought occur and they attempt to put current conditions into historical context.

“This is the first time Arizona has had (extreme) levels since 2015 or so,” Crimmins wrote in an email. “The outlook for February looks bleak. I think drought is going to be a big story for Arizona this spring.”

Three high-temperature records were set in Phoenix in January, according to National Weather Service statistics. Highs of 83 degrees on Jan. 29 and 82 degrees on Jan. 30 tied records for those dates. Both of the previous records were set in 1935.

Phoenix had high temperatures of at least 80 degrees on the last four days of January. That was the earliest in the year that has happened, according to meteorologist Paul Iñiguez via Twitter. The previous record was Jan. 31-Feb. 3, 1954.

The low of 56 degrees on Jan. 4 was the warmest low temperature recorded for that date.

Since Sept. 1, Phoenix has received 0.46 inch of rain. Normal for that period is 3.66 inches.

The average high temperature for the month was 73.9 degrees. That’s 6.7 degrees above normal and third on the all-time list. The record for that category is 74.6 degrees, set in 2003.

The average daily temperature was 61.2 degrees, 4.8 degrees above normal and third on the all-time list. The record is 62 degrees in 2003.

The average low temperature was 48.5 degrees. That’s the fifthwarmest in the category and 2.9 degrees above normal. The record is 49.8 degrees in 1993.

Phoenix saw 0.21 inch of rain for the month. That’s 0.7 inch below normal. The record for the category is no rain on several occasions.