Democrats won’t replace Trent Franks

Laurie Roberts

It’s official: Arizona’s Democrats have moved to fantasyland.

How else can you explain the party’s top dog predicting that a Democrat will be replacing Trent Franks in Congress?

That Democrat Hiral Tipirneni will defeat Republican Debbie Lesko in the April 24 election in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District?

“I believe, bottom line, we can win,” state party chairwoman Felecia Rotellini told CNN last week.

And I believe that Rotellini is either delusional or it’s just a part of the job description that she’s required to promote this pipe dream that Democrats can win in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.

This western Maricopa County district is so red it’s burgundy. This is Sun City turf, where 41 percent of all voters are Republicans and they turn out. (Consider the primary, when 71,320 Republicans voted, to Democrats’ 36,404.)

Donald Trump won Arizona by 4 percentage points. He won CD 8 by 20 points.

If Democrats believe that a backlash against Trump will lead to Democratic pickups in traditionally Republican districts, look for them to be sorely disappointed in Arizona next month.

Democrats point to Maricopa County as evidence that they can take the race.

“There is a huge shift going on right now ...,” county Democratic Party Chairman Steven Slugocki told CNN. “You can call it a blue wave. You can call it just momentum. But here in Maricopa County, we are rapidly changing.”

He points to Adrian Fontes, who in 2016 narrowly won a race for Maricopa County recorder. But Fontes was running against longtime Recorder Helen Purcell, who oversaw a string of screwups, including a badly botched 2016 presidential primary that had voters standing in line for up to five hours.

He points to Paul Penzone, who in 2016 won the race for Maricopa County sheriff.

But that race was against longtime Sheriff Joe Arpaio, whose support has been slipping for years and who was the only candidate with a criminal conviction on his record.

If Democrats really are looking to create a blue wave, they’d be better off putting their energy into the November election, when the state will select a replacement for Sen. Jeff Flake and decide whether to re-elect Gov. Doug Ducey.

They’ve got a real shot at the Senate seat, given that Republican Martha McSally has gone full-bore Trump in the primary campaign and will have to own that when she faces Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in the general. They’ve got a great chance to grab a congressional seat in Pima County, with McSally moving on.

But as for a blue wave next month in Sun City and surrounds? I’m thinking you’ll need rose-colored glasses to see it.