Pennsylvania vote signals more hope for Democrats

Democrats giddy as GOP argues race was unique

A Democrat’s apparent win Tuesday in a Pennsylvania congressional race is another sign of political unease for President Donald Trump and Republicans heading into this fall’s midterm elections.

WASHINGTON – As President Trump returned to the White House from California on Wednesday, he flew above a political landscape that looks increasingly dire for him and the Republicans after a setback in Pennsylvania.

A loss in a Republican-friendly House district, despite the president’s very public support of the GOP candidate, is more evidence that an anti-Trump backlash could carry the Democrats to a congressional majority in the November elections.

“Let it be known that the Blue Wave of 2018 began in Pennsylvania,” said Jack Hanna, that state’s Democratic chairman. “And this is only the beginning of the wave.”

While Republicans downplayed the declared victory of Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania, political analysts said things look good for Democrats as they try to wrest House and Senate majorities from the Republicans.

“The president is the lens through which people evaluate how things are going in the country,” political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said.

Trump backers cast the Pennsylvania race as a “one-off ” that won’t be replicated nationwide in November. Republicans also said the voter turnout strategies they used to help elect Trump in 2016 will enable them to keep control of the House and the Senate in 2018.

“I look at the big picture, not a one-off special election,” said Republican National Committee spokesman Rick Gorka. “We’re looking at protecting and expanding our majorities.”

Republicans said they have betterquality candidates running in November, and analysts like Rothenberg agreed that candidates’ performance is important — but, three months after Democrats won a Senate seat in ruby red Alabama, it’s hard to overlook a Democratic victory in a normally Republican district that Trump took by 20 points just 16 months ago.

“Candidates do matter, but they don’t matter 20 points’ worth,” Rothenberg said.

Democrats said the Pennsylvania result underscores how Trump’s unpopularity — his approval rating hovers around 40% — will drag down many a Republican this fall, tipping the balance of power in the House and Senate.

The Pennsylvania results suggest that one in five Trump voters in 2016 are prepared to desert the Republicans, Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson said. The GOP, he said, “just did a dress rehearsal of selling their agenda to an audience of their own family but still got bad reviews from them the next morning.”

In discounting Lamb’s election, Republicans cited what they called a number of unique factors. They criticized the Republican candidate, state legislator Rick Saccone, for being an uninspiring candidate (and for trying to act too much like Trump).

They noted that Lamb, the Democrat, took conservative positions, including support of gun rights and criticism of House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. They said most Democrats won’t be able to take that approach in the fall and keep their bases happy.

White House aides, meanwhile, said they always saw Saccone as an underdog, and credited Trump with making the contest as close as it was.

While Republicans believe they have financial and organizational advantages, there is one big difference from 2016. There is evidence of more Democratic enthusiasm, if only in opposition to Trump, as exhibited in Alabama and Pennsylvania.

Most Republicans also agree it is a bad political environment.

Scott Jennings, an adviser to President George W. Bush, estimated a “60% chance the Democrats will take back the House,” but Republicans have a good chance to keep the Senate because Democrats have to defend seats in so many Trump-friendly states.