Should the Republicans worry about losing CD8?

The Republican Party is acting like it could actually lose Trent Franks’ old seat in Congress.

Arizona’s Politics blogger Mitch Martinson reports this week that the national party has sunk an astounding $600,000 into Republican Debbie Lesko’s bid to replace Franks in Congressional District 8.

Meanwhile, national Democratic groups have thus far invested an equally astonishing amount into Democrat Hiral Tipirneni: $0.00.

This, with just 19 days until the election.

There’s a reason for that. While the national narrative continues on that upsets in Alabama and Pennsylvania could propel Democrats to next grab CD8, the local narrative – the one Democrats prefer not to talk about out loud – is that not even Jesus himself could win this district if he had a D after his name.

Sure, Pennsylvania went for Trump by 20 points, only to see Democrat Connor Lamb take away a Republican seat last month. But that Pennsylvania district, home of shuttered steel mills and closed coal mines, actually has a Democratic registration edge.

CD8 – which went for Trump by 21 points – is the home of golf courses and recreation centers chock full of white Republican retirees who never fail to cast a ballot. And Debbie Lesko is the longtime state legislator whose credits include changing the law in 2014 to allow Sun City and Sun City West residents to drive their golf carts on the streets without getting a ticket.

Still, Republicans, with a six-figure national investment in a historically safe district, can read the signs that Democrats are highly motivated after 15 months of President Donald Trump. They’ve invested $600,000 – and a coming fundraiser by House Speaker Paul Ryan – to ensure they won’t be suffer coast-to-coast embarrassment (again) when the votes are cast in CD8 later this month.

Certainly, Republican Rep. Martha McSally – running wildly to the right in her bid to win the August GOP primary election to replace Sen. Jeff Flake – should be worried. McSally’s rightward lurch could very well hand a plum Senate seat into Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema’s waiting hands this fall.

But CD8 on April 24? Not so much. Democrats turned out an impressive 38,463 voters in the Feb. 27 primary in CD8. But Republicans, with a smaller turnout, still swamped them 2-1, casting 76,451 votes. It helps when 41 percent of the district’s voters are Republicans to Democrats’ 24 percent.

According to the Secretary of State’s Office, more than 55,000 early ballots already have been cast in the April 24 election. Of those, 48 percent have come from Republicans, com-

pared to 28 percent from Democrats.

Despite the unfavorable numbers, Tipirneni, an emergency room doctor running her first political race, is all-in on the race — and the national narrative.

“If you look at that national wave of momentum, Arizona is no different,” she recently told The Guardian. “Our Democratic base is energized. And what’s amazing is that we didn’t realize how many Dems were there just waiting for somebody to step up and represent them.”

Clearly, it’s a horse race when the national Democratic Party decides to invest ... nothing?