Mexico’s Obrador would sow chaos
Americans could soon be hit by the political tsunami called Andrés Manuel López Obrador. And if that happens, we can thank President Donald Trump for it.
Mexicans have twice rejected the 64year-old leftist Obrador — better known as AMLO — for president, but this time is different. Trump’s incessant bashing of Mexico and “build the wall” rallying cry have propelled Obrador to a double-digit lead in the July 1 election. If he wins, Mexico will elect its first leftist president since the 1930s.
Why is that bad for the U.S.? Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor with a decades-long career in politics, has outsmarted candidates from the political elite, seizing on Trump’s antagonistic rhetoric to woo the masses. So:
Trump wants to build a wall with Mexico? Obrador says he would cooperate with the United States but its “racist attitude will not be tolerated.”
Trump wants to end the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada? To heck with the USA. Obrador says Mexicans can be self-sufficient.
Trump has sent the National Guard to the border and keeps threatening mass deportations? Don’t worry, Obrador says. Mexicans would have no need to cross the border, legally or otherwise.
So, if Trump wants Mexicans to stay in Mexico and Obrador can do it, what’s wrong with that?
A lot, actually.
Obrador’s populist agenda worries economic experts at home and abroad. They paint him as a Hugo Chávez-style authoritarian “tropical messiah” who could turn Mexico into another Venezuela.
He wants to:
Postpone NAFTA negotiations until after the election, adding uncertainty to economic markets already on edge over Trump’s insistence to end the trade deal. At stake are 14 million NAFTA-supported American jobs.
Make Mexico self-sufficient on staples like corn, beans and beef. Farmers and cattle ranchers in the United States would feel the brunt of it. In 2015, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico reached $17.7 billion, including other products such as soybeans, dairy, pork and beef, according to the Department of Agriculture.
Propose a referendum on energy re- form and has hinted at possibly canceling oil contracts with foreign companies. Financial markets tumbled, for instance, after he threatened to halt a landmark energy reform and end a $13.3 billion airport project, noted Marco Lopez, a Phoenix expert on Mexican political and business sectors.
Cut wages for high-ranking officials cut while increasing those of low-income workers.
Offer amnesty for criminals whose drug war has left more than 100,000 dead since 2006.
Eliminate college-admission exams and provide scholarships to all low-income students, and double senior citizens and retiree pensions.
Obrador’s “populism” speaks to Mexicans desperate for somebody to stand up to Trump’s bullying and fight government’s deep-rooted corruption that has plunged the country into economic and political turmoil. But he’s making unrealistic promises, and his Made in Mexico policies could further threaten economic trade between the two nations.
You think that’s good? Think again. The already volatile financial market would go into turmoil, almost certainly sending the Mexican currency, the peso, into a downward spiral. That means less money to pay for his policies, hurting the very people he wants to get out of poverty.
A President Obrador would stand up to Trump, yes. But in doing so he could isolate Mexico from much-needed economic trade with the United States and the world.
American industries — from oil to automobile manufacturing to farmers to cattle ranchers — should be worried about a President Obrador.
Obrador isn’t bluffing. He truly believes he can make Mexico self-sufficient on corn, beans, beef and a range of other current imports.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Mexico should become self-sufficient. But it should not be done so at the expense of the poor, who stand to lose the most if Obrador’s socialist agenda were to fail.
And if a President Obrador fails, as experts predict, that could mean only one thing: A wave of Mexicans heading north to cross to the United States — with or without Trump’s border wall.