1st-round history sides with Rosen playing in ’18

In the ongoing debate as to how many games and starts Josh Rosen might get this season with the Cardinals – and the same as it relates to the other four quarterbacks that were selected in the first round of last month’s draft – it’s important to revisit history when musing about rookie NFL signal callers and how much action they may or may not see.

That’s what azcentral sports did in trying to dissect the likelihood of Rosen’s playing time in 2018 as well as that of the other first-round, first-year QBs.

Research shows they all could end up playing a lot more than you might have thought.

Get in there, rookie

In the last 20 years, there have been 55 quarterbacks that ended up being

first-round picks and, all told, they combined to appear in an average of 9.9 games and start in an average of 8.3 games their rookie seasons. So in other words, if history holds true, you can probably expect Rosen to play at least half the season.

“I don’t really follow those numbers,” Rosen said, looking a bit surprised, after his first workout in the team’s rookie minicamp. “I’m just trying to get out on the field and do the best I can do. If the coaches think I’m ready, then I’m ready to go.”

That’s the same approach the three quarterbacks drafted in front of Rosen are taking as well, although fans in Cleveland are expecting Baker Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick, to overtake Tyrod Taylor and start sooner rather than later for the Browns. They’re 1-31 the past two seasons, and the crowd will be cheering for the replacement, not the retread.

Ditto in New York, where the Jets seem better served throwing Sam Darnold, the No. 3 pick, into the mix right away rather than sticking with 38-yearold incumbent Josh McCown.

Darnold may have to bide his time, but it probably won’t be for long. It shouldn’t be for Josh Allen in Buffalo, either, although the No. 7 overall pick will likely have to beat out A.J. McCarron for the privilege. If he doesn’t, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he assumes the starting role after three or four games.

The wait could be longer in Baltimore for Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, the last pick in the first round. It only makes sense for him to be the understudy behind Joe Flacco for now until the Ravens are ready to redesign their offense around the dual threat that Jackson offers as both a passer and a scrambler. Flacco’s days, however, are numbered to be sure.

In Arizona, meanwhile, Rosen could just be one play away from soaring up the depth chart.

Rosen watch

Cardinals coach Steve Wilks has been on record as saying veteran Sam Bradford will be his starting quarterback to open the year, which is what you’d expect him to say after the Cardinals lured Bradford to the Valley on a two-year deal that guarantees him at least $15 million this season.

But that was before the Cardinals knew they could procure a draft-day deal with the Raiders and jettison a third- and fifth-round pick to Oakland for the right to move up five spots and snag Rosen with the 10th overall selection. Rosen is now Arizona’s franchise quarterback of the future. Those types of players typically don’t spend very much time as a third-string, game-day inactive, especially when they are deemed by most in the know to be ready to start right away.

“Listen, there is no one in this draft that I would rather go play a game tomorrow with and believe we could win in the NFL than Rosen,” ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said. “He is the most NFL-ready, polished pure passer of the group.”

But like the compliments that always seem to be with Rosen, McShay’s evaluation comes with a caveat because of the quarterback’s outspoken, unique and occasionally quirky personality.

“You’ve got to know what you’re getting long-term,” McShay said of Rosen, “and if this is a guy that’s going to become a Jay Cutler for you, or is he someone that you can manage a little bit better.”

During interviews with Wilks, offensive coordinator Mike McCoy and General Manager Steve Keim, Rosen checked all of the boxes for the Cardinals. They have said they are enamored by his style and swag. But In a perfect world, Wilks has said, Bradford plays all 16 regular-season games and Rosen learns for a year behind him and backup Mike Glennon.

But life is never perfect.

And on Friday, after running firstand second-year players through the first day of rookie camp, Wilks repeated an interesting line he’s also used at least a few times already.

“When I say we’re going to play the best 11 guys,” he said, “it’s not lip service. Everybody has an opportunity coming in to really prove and show themselves why they deserve to be here. We continue to push guys in that direction.

“I told the veteran guys the other day, ‘There’s no entitlement. Everybody’s here trying to earn their way.’ We said the same thing with the rookies when they came in (Thursday night). They’ve got a great opportunity, and hopefully they take advantage of it.”

Given Bradford’s past injury issues and the fact he will be playing on a left knee that has already undergone two major reconstructive surgeries, it would seem doubtful that Bradford stays healthy for a full season. He’s only played an entire 16-game regular season twice in his eight years in the NFL since being drafted first overall by the Rams in 2010.

And although Rosen presently is third on the depth chart, it probably won’t surprise to anyone if the Cardinals turn to him ahead of Glennon should Bradford miss significant time. History, remember, already tells us that first-round rookies like Rosen are likely to see action in anywhere from eight to 10 games.

With Bradford’s strong accuracy and positive numbers when healthy, it would seem a stretch to think he would be replaced by Rosen for any other reason besides an injury-related scenario. Then again, Bradford only appeared in two games last season for the Vikings, and if he has trouble shaking off the rust and the Cardinals struggle out of the gate, a change at quarterback wouldn’t be a shock.

What would be a surprise is if Rosen doesn’t play a lick in 2018. Of the 55 quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the previous 20 years, that’s only happened twice.

Former Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer, selected first overall out of USC in 2003, didn’t appear in a single game for the Bengals his first season, instead sitting and learning for a year behind Jon Kitna. Jason Campbell, the 25th overall pick out of Auburn in 2005, also didn’t play a single down for the Redskins as a rookie. He sat and watched behind Mark Brunell and Patrick Ramsey.

If that happens to Rosen, so be it, he said. Rosen, though, found it more than just intriguing that Wilks keeps dropping that comment about using the best 11 players, regardless of who they are, where they came from, or how long they’ve been in the league.

It definitely serves as extra motivation, he said.

“I’d be excited if I was just a fan of the Cardinals and that was my head coach,” Rosen said. “That means the best 11 dudes are playing. There are no favorites, no nothing. But as a player, it’s awesome because I know I’ll get a fair shot at getting on the field.”

History pretty much guarantees it.

Reach McManaman at bob.mcmanaman@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on Twitter @azbobbymac and listen to him live every Wednesday night between 7-9 on Fox Sports 910-AM on The Freaks with Kenny and Crash.