Does Ducey benefit from high court nominee?

Make room, #RedforEd and immigration, there’s a hot new issue in town in the coming governor’s race. Abortion.

Oh, I know. Abortion is a hot old issue in Arizona, where just about every year our leaders dream up new and creative maneuvers designed to make it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion.

And just about every year, the U.S. Supreme Court tosses out many of those new and creative maneuvers.

With President Donald Trump’s appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, look for abortion to rocket to the top of voters’ minds.

The question is: Does that help or hurt Gov. Doug Ducey?

The pro-life governor has signed every bill sent to him to make it more difficult — and more physically painful — to get an abortion. I’m pretty sure the Center for Arizona Policy’s Cathi Herrod, the state’s top crusader against abortion, has the guy on speed dial.

Meanwhile, Ducey is likely to face Democrat David Garcia, a pro-choice Democrat who will position himself as the last line of defense to protect a woman’s right to an abortion should the Supreme Court kick the issue to the states. As the guy who would veto Herrod’s bills once the Legislature approves them.

Democratic strategist Barry Dill says abortion instantly became a top issue, one he thinks is bound to help Democrats.

“I don’t think it (abortion) overtakes education but it will certainly will be one of the top three issues that will be discussed and argued in November election, and will serve to generate a larger base of Democrats,” he told me. “But does that also energize the antiabortion people who maybe aren’t excited about voting this cycle to become more active? That’s the big question.”

Certainly, the Republicans could use a reason to get excited about this election.

Remember April, when Republican Debbie Lesko defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni by just 5 percent points? That was a rock-solid Republican district where Lesko should have glided into office with double that vote margin.

People who study these things tell me that the race was close because Republican women who always vote ... didn’t.

The abortion issue, Dill says, is likely to motivate them to vote.

How they would vote, however, is difficult to say. Dill says it might convince pro-choice Republican women to swing the Democrats’ way.

“I have to believe, of course, I’m biased, but I have to think that it helps Democrats more because of that Republican female vote problem, many of whom might be pro-choice,” Dill said.

Republican strategist Stan Barnes

has a different view. (Shocking, I know.) Barnes says advantage will go to Ducey, especially if he sells the abortion issue as a matter of states’ rights.

“It plays well for Ducey,” Barnes said. “I think he would love to have a new issue that is built around Arizonans’ sovereignty and our ability to make our own policies here and state’s rights.”

It seems clear to me that abortion — and the possibility of Roe vs. Wade being overturned or maimed — will energize Democrats.

But Democrats already are energized. They have Nov. 6 highlighted on their calenders. And circled in red. And set with an alert on their cellphones. Probably an alert with a ringtone that signals a cavalry charge.

The blue wave has been building for some time now. A Trump backlash and a teacher revolt ensures that it’ll surge this fall.

But a red wave in Arizona has seemed unlikely — to me, at least — since watching Lesko eke her way into Congress.

Martha McSally is the probable GOP nominee for the open Senate seat and she’s not likely to motivate die-hard Kelli Ward conservatives to go marching into the polls on her behalf.

So what would it take, I wonder, to whip up the turbulence needed to create a red wave in Arizona?

What issue might serve as a rallying call for Republicans who despise abortion and might sense a chance, even a slim one, to overturn a 45-year-old law that they believe has allowed the wholesale murder of millions?

Hmmm.