Record primary turnout projected

Voting might surpass 30% mark set in 2010

Voter turnout in Tuesday’s primary election was expected to shatter Arizona’s existing record — and early returns suggest Democrats are largely behind the upswing in enthusiasm.

According to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, at least 837,998 voters had cast early ballots as of Monday afternoon. That’s roughly 23 percent of registered voters.

“It’s still looking very likely that we will be at or above 1.1 million votes tomorrow,” Garrett Archer, senior elections systems analyst for the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office, wrote Monday in a post on Twitter.

“If that happens we break raw and percentage turnout records for an Arizona primary.”

The state’s existing record for turnout in a primary was set in 2010 — a wave year for Republicans. About 30 percent of registered voters, or 933,650 people, cast a ballot that August.

Arizona could easily exceed that turnout if 260,000 people cast a ballot between by the time polls closed Tuesday.

Democrats appear to be the driving force behind the uptick in voter participation. Several key numbers that experts were watching:

Primary turnout for Democrats was already above 2016 levels in 625 precinct by Mondays, according to the state’s forecast. Republicans had exceeded their 2016 turnout in 28 precincts.

❚ There are still more GOP voters overall, but the gap in voter turnout between the parties is at its lowest since 1994. As of Monday, Republicans had cast about 55 percent of ballots, compared with 44 percent for Democrats.

❚ Democrats have seen a sharp increase in voter registration. Democrats have added 21,270 voters since March; Republicans added 5,301 during the same period.

Bill Scheel, a Democratic strategist working on campaigns this year, said early-ballot returns showed the Democratic base was fired up. He said the enthusiasm boost was largely driven by voters’ support for the #RedForEd teacher movement to increase school funding.

“I think this primary turnout is just another indication that this blue wave is still coming across Arizona quite strongly,” he said. “It really is an indication that Arizona is on its way back to being a purple state.”

An Arizona Republican Party spokeswoman didn’t respond to a request for comment Monday afternoon.

Republicans have said a strong economy and federal-tax reform legislation that cut costs for many small businesses could boost the party’s fortunes for the Nov. 6 general election.

The GOP still has a significant voterregistration advantage in Arizona: 1.26 million voters are Republicans; 1.22 million are independents; 1.11 million are Democrats.

“It’s still looking very likely that we will be at or above 1.1 million votes.” Garrett Archer senior elections systems analyst, Secretary of State’s Office