Florence could be big, but its path is uncertain

Florence, which weakened to a tropical storm overnight, is forecast to restrengthen into a major hurricane as it approaches the East Coast next week.

Where and when it might strike remains a mystery.

The storm is almost 1,600 miles from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and is still as much as a week away from a potential U.S. landfall, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of 5 p.m. EDT Friday, Florence had winds of 65 mph and was moving to the west at 8 mph. The storm’s center was 905 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

After it weakens and regains strength, it’s forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds as it nears the United States.

“Regardless of Florence’s eventual track, large swells will begin to affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents,” the hurricane center said Friday. It is too soon to determine what other effects Florence could have on the East Coast, the center said.

A pair of top computer models from the United States and Europe, however, indicate a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas next week, said weather.us meteorologist Ryan Maue.

AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said that “while it is too early to change plans, all interests in Bermuda and along the East Coast of the U.S. should closely monitor the movement of Florence over this weekend and next week.”

If the storm did hit the U.S., it would be an unprecedented event: Since 1851, 33 named storms have been within 100 miles of Florence’s current position, and none of those storms made U.S. landfall, said Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.