Ariz. Dems eye control of Senate

Party: Unpopular Trump fueling ‘energy equation’

For more than two decades, Democrats have fallen short in their quest to flip control of at least one chamber in the GOP-dominated Arizona Legislature.

But if there were ever a year for them to turn the tide, 2018 could be it.

Talk of a “blue wave” in this fall’s midterm elections has renewed Democrats’ hopes of winning down-ballot fights for the state Senate, where they last had a majority in 1991-1992.

Their focus is on the Senate because that’s where there’s a better mathematical possibility they could take power.

“We feel like we are more competitive in more districts than we’ve ever been,” said Charlie Fisher, executive director of the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. “We have a deeply unpopular president. That certainly is part of the energy equation.”

Republicans currently hold a 17-13 majority in the Senate. Democrats are optimistic they can flip three seats on Nov. 6 to seize control — or at least two

seats to achieve a split in the 30-member chamber.

The odds are less favorable in the House of Representatives, where the GOP holds a 35-25 majority, though Democrats also look to pick up seats there.

Even GOP leaders say Democrats’ odds are better than they’ve been in many years.

Among them is House Speaker J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler, who’s running for the Senate in a battleground district.

“The trends have been moving against us,” he said. “I’m running scared, and I’m advising every Republican to run scared.”

Democrats are optimistic a blue wave could be on the horizon statewide for several reasons:

❚ Momentum from #RedForEd movement could hurt Republicans. Teachers who stormed the Arizona Capitol by the tens of thousands during a historic school walkout this spring largely weren’t satisfied by the pay raises lawmakers approved. They still want overall classroom funding restored to pre-recession levels.

❚ President Donald Trump has unusually low approval ratings, and the party that holds the White House historically struggles up and down the ballot in midterm elections.

❚ Arizona Democrats have seen a surge in enthusiasm. This summer, they shattered the state’s voter-turnout record for an August primary; 147,000 more Democrats cast a ballot than in the 2016 primary.

❚ The Democratic Party has had a string of wins in special elections across the country since Trump took office, and could win the majority in the U.S. House this fall.

If Democrats take the state Senate, the impact on Arizonans’ lives could be profound: Controlling just one chamber at the state Capitol would give them significant leverage to demand more funding for schools.

A divided government also would allow Democrats to block bills offensive to their base, such as restrictions on abortion or measures targeting immigration.

But even with political winds shifting in their favor, the Democratic Party faces an uphill slog in Arizona.

There are still more registered Republicans in the state — about 150,000 more — and GOP voters are more likely to turn out.

Republicans also are confident that a booming economy and strong growth in the state’s metropolitan areas will swing independents their way.

Democrats’ hopes of winning the majority hinge on about a half-dozen districts.

Most of the battlegrounds are suburban districts that ring the Phoenix area.

Two sprawling rural districts, including parts of northern Arizona and Pinal County, also are included in the equation.

It’s clear Republicans see the same battlegrounds.

Evidence of their concern was on display Sept. 12 when seven GOP candidates, mostly incumbents, held a fundraiser in downtown Phoenix. A flier for the event dubbed them the “Save the Senate” seven.

GOP strategists say they are less worried about rural districts than suburbia.

Chad Heywood, a Republican consultant, said he’s confident that Republicans will carry rural areas because Trump has resonated with voters there who feel “left behind and forgotten” by the media and urban elites.

“I don’t think there’s a blue wave in rural Arizona, or even rural America,” Heywood said. “Donald Trump has (rural voters) fired up.”

He said that includes Legislative District 6 in northern/eastern Arizona’s mountain country, a prime target for Democrats. They are trying, for a third time, to unseat Sen. Sylvia Allen, RSnowflake, a fiery conservative.

Democrats disagree. They are optimistic Holbrook Vice Mayor Wade Carlisle, a ranch and railroad worker, can unseat Allen by focusing on education.

However, Heywood said the picture is different for Republicans in suburban districts.

He said the president hasn’t connected as well with suburban voters who don’t like “the combat in our politics.”

Democrats are targeting races in Ahwatukee Foothills, Chandler, Tempe, Glendale and north and east Phoenix.

They predict support for #RedForEd and opposition to about $1 billion that Republicans have cut in funding for district schools over the past decade will drive independents and moderate Republicans to their side.

Fisher said those suburban voters are turned off by the GOP’s shift to the right over the last decade, when several moderate Republicans lost primaries for the Legislature.

“The (Republican) Party has moved away,” he said. “They want more extremists. They want more people who are hard-core partisans, (not) folks who are looking to actually go and find solutions for our kids.”

One prime target for Democrats is Mesnard’s race in District 17, which spans parts of Chandler and Gilbert.

He faces a challenge from Democrat Steve Weichert, a hospital administrator, who has campaigned on his support for the #RedForEd movement.

Mesnard, meanwhile, has stressed that GOP lawmakers approved a budget this year that gave teachers substantial raises.

Democrats hope demographic changes could also boost their chances in suburban districts.

Over the last decade, suburban areas such as Chandler, Ahwatukee and Gilbert have seen an influx of millennials starting their families and people of color, particularly Latinos. Education is a top priority for those voters.

Democrats also have sought to appeal to the new suburbanites by promoting the diversity of the party’s slate.

Of the 83 Democrats on the ballot in legislative races, 46 are women, 34 are people of color and six are members of the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender population.

Republicans haven’t released demographic data about their candidates.

Of the party’s 71 candidates on the ballot, 23 are women.

This year’s legislative races have drawn an unprecedented level of attention from out-of-state groups, particularly progressive political committees hoping to flip the Senate.

Groups such as Forward Majority, Flippable and Act Blue are investing heavily in the state as part of a national effort to retake state Capitols in swing states controlled by Republicans.

The GOP holds power in 31 state Legislatures, but Democrats are eager to break their dominance before new maps are drawn after the 2020 census.

Ben Wexler-Waite, a spokesman for Forward Majority, said the group plans to spend at least $1 million on legislative races in Arizona to grow the map in districts “beyond what is deemed competitive by the political class.”

“Politicians have left Arizona schools to crumble and they need to be held accountable for their votes,” he said. “People are waking up to what’s been going on.”

Most of the Republican incumbents running for Senate have far outraised their Democratic opponents.

Nevertheless, Mesnard said he’s preparing for a flood of attacks funded by liberal groups.

“I’m bracing myself for whatever onslaught is coming,” he said.

7 battleground districts to watch

District 6, northern/eastern Arizona’s mountain country: Democrats are trying for a third time to topple Allen. She’s survived close races before, but faces a spirited challenge from Carlisle.

The district spans Payson, Flagstaff, Sedona and parts of Camp Verde. It has been a GOP stronghold, particularly in rural towns, but growth in Flagstaff has changed the voter base.

District 28, east Phoenix/Paradise Valley: Sen. Kate Brophy McGee, RPhoenix, faces a fight from teacher Christine Marsh. The campaign has been all about education, especially given Marsh was Arizona’s 2016 teacher of the year.

Brophy McGee, a moderate, has portrayed herself as a good fit for the centrist district.

District 21, northwest Valley: Incumbent Sen. Rick Gray, R-Sun City, faces a formidable foe in Kathy Knecht.

While the district is traditionally a GOP bastion, Knecht is an independent with roots in the district, which spans Sun City, El Mirage and parts of Peoria and Surprise. She said she doesn’t know what party she would caucus with, if elected. That could put either party’s path to the majority in limbo.

District 17, parts of Chandler and Gilbert: Mesnard faces Democrat Steve Weichert, a hospital administrator. The race will be a key test of #RedForEd’s influence given the movement’s strong following there, and Weichert’s campaign has focused on education.

District 18, Ahwatukee Foothills and parts of Tempe/Chandler: Sen. Sean Bowie, D-Ahwatukee, faces a rematch of his 2016 race with Republican Frank Schmuck, a commercial pilot.

This is the only swing district where Democrats are on the defensive this fall, and they need to hold it to have a path to the majority.

District 8, Pinal County: Sen. Frank Pratt, R-Casa Grande, is running to keep the seat he took from a Democratic incumbent in 2016. Democrats hope Sharon Girard, a retired physician’s assistant, can reclaim the seat.

Pinal County was once a stronghold for Democrats, but has turned increasingly red.

District 20, north Phoenix and Glendale: Rep. Paul Boyer, R-Phoenix, faces two opponents for the open seat: Democrat Douglas Ervin, an accountant; and Doug “Q” Quelland, a former lawmaker and independent.

The seat is open because incumbent Sen. Kimberly Yee, R-Phoenix, is running for state treasurer.