Senate poll: Sinema has edge over McSally

In the contentious race for Arizona’s open U.S. Senate seat, Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is locked in a tight battle with Republican Rep. Martha McSally.

But many voters still haven’t decided whom they will support in the Nov. 6 general election, a new Suffolk University/Arizona Republic poll shows.

The poll shows Sinema, who has represented a Phoenix-area district for three terms in Congress, leading among likely voters with 44.6 percent.

McSally, who has represented a Tucson-area district for two terms, trailed by three percentage points with 41.6 percent.

The Sinema-McSally results fell within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Green Party candidate Angela Green secured 2.2 percent of support, with some voters saying they intend to vote for another candidate.

Nearly 11 percent of voters said they still were unsure who they would vote for, leaving room for Sinema or McSally to grow their support.

The statewide poll of 500 registered voters, reached by mobile phones and landlines, was conducted with Suffolk University between Sept. 27 and 30 during amid explosive news developments surrounding embattled U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

Voters overwhelmingly said they were either extremely interested or very interested in the race.

About 44 percent of voters viewed Sinema as favorable and about 36 percent saw her as unfavorable, with 14 percent undecided. The rest were either undecided or had not heard of her.

More voters viewed McSally as unfavorable than favorable. About 43 percent saw her as unfavorable and about 41 percent viewed her as favorable. The rest were undecided or had not heard of her.

Sinema led McSally 43 percent to 29 percent among independent voters, a crucial segment of the electorate whose support she will need to wrestle the seat from Republicans.

Sinema is also leading with women voters, garnering 52 percent of their vote, with 32 percent of women supporting McSally. Men, however, broke for McSally 52 percent to 37 percent.

Sinema appears most popular with voters younger than 45 and voters 65 to 74 years old. McSally does best with middle-aged voters 45 to 64.

Immigration topped voters’ minds, followed by the economy, health care, “corruption,” gun control and other issues.

Kathleen Kahn, a 34-year-old Republican, doesn’t feel strongly about Sinema, but she is crossing over to vote for her simply because President Donald Trump “has offended me on all levels.”

“I don’t have any strong feelings either way about either candidate . ... I’m just going to be voting Democrat because of my general distaste of the Republican Party right now,” said Kahn, an attorney and mother of two.

Kahn, who considers herself a moderate, said she opposes the way local Republicans have handled funding for the state’s public education system, the Kavanaugh confirmation process and the treatment of undocumented immigrant children separated from their parents.

But Brad Berlin, a 41-year-old logistics consultant who works in the freight industry, said he is all in for McSally because Trump has endorsed her.

Berlin said he is impressed with McSally’s military background as the first female combat pilot in the U.S. Air Force, and her relationship with the president.

Berlin said he trusts McSally to advance the president’s signature goal of ending illegal immigration and erecting a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

“They’re on the same page,” said Berlin, who lives in north Phoenix. “If there’s a Democrat (elected), they’re just going to resist” Trump’s agenda, he said.

Arizona’s Senate race is deemed a toss-up by political analysts, who see the GOP’s hold on the seat in jeopardy in light of Trump’s divisive presidency and the state’s changing demographics.

Arizona shares that status with seven other Senate races, including those in Nevada, Tennessee and Texas according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

A Democrat has not won an Arizona U.S. Senate seat in 30 years.