Secretary

circles, fueled by talk that the governor — whether Republican Gov. Doug Ducey or Democrat David Garcia — could resign in the next four years to seek higher office.

Those predictions focus on the 2020 election to fill the U.S. Senate seat that was held by Sen. John McCain, who died in August after a fight with brain cancer.

Jon Kyl, who was appointed by Ducey to the post, has said he won’t seek the office in that election.

Ducey also has said he’s not running, but there’s still chatter that he or Garcia could be the next senator-in-waiting. There’s also perennial speculation that Ducey could snag a Cabinet-level post in Washington, D.C.

In a July endorsement meeting with The Republic’s Editorial Board, Ducey promised to fulfill his full term if he is re-elected.

Hobbs or Gaynor could also become governor, under the Arizona Constitution, if the next executive dies or becomes permanently disabled and unable to fulfill his duties.

Who’s the most qualified?

The two have downplayed any personal ambitions to be governor. But Gaynor and Hobbs have been outspoken about why each believes the other is unqualified to lead Arizona.

Gaynor, a millionaire who owns a printing plant in the Los Angeles area, said Hobbs doesn’t have the executive experience he’s gained from the private sector.

He said the effectiveness of state government is determined by a governor’s ability to oversee a large organization and hire and fire the right team to implement state policy.

“I have long experience leading organizations to achieve goals and fulfill missions,” he said in an interview. “That’s what I would bring, more than anything else, to the Governor’s Office.”

Hobbs, the minority leader in the Arizona Senate, said she’s the only candidate ready to be governor because she’s “been in the trenches” for the past eight years at the state Capitol.

She said Gaynor has, by contrast, had “literally zero” direct involvement in issues such as education or health care.

“This is a guy who showed up out of nowhere,” Hobbs said. “Why should we trust this guy at all anywhere near our elections or any other elected office in our state?”

Bill Scheel, a Democratic consultant, echoed that concern, saying candidates need “some minimal level of community or civic involvement, so folks have at least a basic idea what your values are, what your perspective is.”

Hobbs also said she has executive experience, citing her past role as chief compliance officer for the Sojourner Center, a large domestic-violence shelter, where she worked to secure funding.

Chuck Coughlin, a Republican consultant who advised Brewer, said the most important question is who will be able to pull together a strong team as governor.

“You want to make sure that that person is well-versed in state relationships and capable of surrounding themselves with people that are capable of managing the state,” he said. “It’s really about competency to me.”

Where they stand on issues

Coughlin said both candidates have something to prove: Hobbs needs to convince voters she has management experience, and Gaynor needs to convince them that he’s not a partisan ideologue.

During the primary, Gaynor portrayed himself as a more solid conservative than Reagan.

On his website, he stated that he’s “pro-Trump,” “pro-Second Amendment,” “pro-border security” and “prolife.” He also stated his support for Ducey and conservative senators.

But Gaynor appears to be striking a more moderate tone for the general election. The portion of his website with those references has since been rewritten to remove those points.

Gaynor’s site now states that “Steve supports the policies and achievements of the Trump administration.”

Hobbs has attacked him on the subject of ideology, saying she thinks voters need to know “how far out of the mainstream” his views are on social issues such as abortion and LGBTQ rights.

Gaynor’s campaign, in turn, has called Hobbs a “radical leftist.” Last week, he launched his first attack ad of the general election, attempting to portray Hobbs as a liberal extremist.

These are some key policy areas where their ideological differences could have an effect as governor:

Abortion rights

Beyond the basic legality of abortion, which is up to the U.S. Supreme Court, Arizona’s governor often must decide whether to sign or veto bills that place new regulations on the procedure.

Gaynor indicated, on a candidate survey from the conservative Center for Arizona Policy, that he supports banning abortion “with exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother.”

Hobbs called his stance “really extreme and not in the mainstream of Arizona voters.”

Gaynor said he thinks it’s unlikely that the next governor will confront the issue of outlawing abortion, even given the potential appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, which could shift it to the right.

In an interview, Gaynor struck a moderate tone on the issue: “My view on abortion is that Roe v. Wade is the law of the land and that the Supreme Court has made clear what is legal and what is not.”

Hobbs supports the right of women to seek the procedure, and she has sponsored bills to cut regulations that abortion providers say are burdensome.

Taxes

Hobbs, meanwhile, has been attacked on the issue of tax increases.

Gaynor said he’s more inclined to support limited government while claiming Hobbs supports regulation that can strangle economic growth.

“Her orientation has been toward raising taxes,” Gaynor said. “She was certainly for the Invest in Ed initiative that would have doubled the top income-tax rate. It would have damaged the state economically.”

Hobbs said she was “not on the record in support of Invest in Ed” and hasn’t been faced with bills to increase taxes in the GOP-dominated Legislature.

She said she wouldn’t support an across-the-board tax increase, but she didn’t rule out the possibility of a tax hike as a means to fund the state’s education system — where classroom funding is still below 2008 funding levels.

“We’re not fixing it the way we are now, and there’s not really anymore change in the couch cushions,” Hobbs said. “We need collaboration to solve it.”

Education funding

In terms of funding, Gaynor said he supports Ducey’s 20 by 2020 teacherraise plan. The plan aims to increase teacher pay by 20 percent over three years, though some teachers will receive smaller or larger raises based on district funding.

Gaynor said, in an email, that he would build on the plan over the next few years by aiming to decrease “district administrative costs to get more dollars into the classroom.”

Then, in the year 2020, Gaynor wrote, he would “assess the budget and projected tax revenues with the goal of increasing classroom spending without raising taxes.”

Hobbs reiterated that she considers Ducey’s plan inadequate. She said the state could find more money for education by closing corporate tax loopholes and examining the amount of money that’s been diverted to private-school vouchers.

Then, she said, the governor should bring teachers and business leaders together to have a “grown-up” conversation about how Arizona can create a sustainable revenue stream for schools.

“I don’t know how we can seriously address this without talking about revenue,” she said. “I don’t think we’re going to fix this until everyone is willing to get into the room together.”

LGBTQ rights

Gaynor has received criticism from the Human Rights Campaign — a national advocacy group for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer people — for his stance on equality issues.

Gaynor, in the Center for Arizona Policy survey, indicated he opposes a statewide law that adds “sexual orientation” or “gender identity” to non-discrimination protections.

“Steve Gaynor’s contempt for LGBTQ Arizonans is shameful, dangerous and inconsistent with our state’s shared values,” HRC Arizona State Director Justin Unga said in a press statement.

Gaynor said he opposes all discrimination and has been accepting of LGBT people who work for his business, but he has apprehensions about a new law.

“I don’t think it’s a positive thing for society to have a multitude of protected class,” Gaynor said. “The people that I know who are gay … many of them are not necessarily in favor of having a nondiscrimination law.”

Gaynor hasn’t specified what he sees as the potential unintended consequences of creating additional protected classes, aside for saying that it would welcome litigation.

Unga also accused Gaynor of supporting the “abusive practice” of conversion therapy.

In CAP’s survey, Gaynor responded to a question asking if he supports “protecting a parent’s right to seek professional counseling for their minor child with same-sex attraction or gender identity issues to help them reach their desired outcome.”

Gaynor indicated he supports that position.

But Gaynor said in an interview that he didn’t think the question was about conversion therapy.

He said he doesn’t support that kind of therapy, which tries to change a person’s sexual orientation.

He noted that many medical and psychological groups don’t support the practice.

Hobbs has sponsored legislation to create a statewide non-discrimination law. She’s endorsed by the HRC and supports banning conversion therapy.

Gun safety

Hobbs has been a vocal advocate in the Legislature for Democrats’ bills that seek to prevent mass shootings in schools and other public places through stricter gun laws.

She said the top priority should be to require universal criminal background checks on all gun sales. That would close the so-called “gun show” loophole, which allows private parties to sell guns without background checks.

Hobbs said background checks — coupled with a measure allowing courts to keep guns out of the hands of unstable and threatening individuals — would effectively prevent many shootings.

“I’m talking about commonsense things that a lot of people support,” she said.

Gaynor proposes a different set of policies to prevent shootings. He said the state should increase the number of police officers in schools, improve building security in schools and other “vulnerable facilities,” and expand programs to treat mental illness in students.

He said he also would encourage the safe storage of firearms, especially for parents with children.

“I would not abridge any Second Amendment rights in the implementation of this plan,” Gaynor wrote in an email.

Border security

Both candidates said they would work with the federal government to address any security gaps that exist along the U.S.-Mexico border.

But the candidates have vastly different takes on Ducey’s Arizona Border Strike Force, a group that teams multiple law-enforcement agencies to prevent drug smuggling and human trafficking.

Hobbs said Ducey has politicized the effort “to score political points.”

Gaynor wrote that he’s interested in expanding the effort, to the extent the state budget allows, “to stem the flow of illegal drugs and people across the border.”