Democrats shift focus to secretary of state race

Focus shifts to campaign for secretary of state now

With their hopes of unseating Gov. Doug Ducey apparently waning, Arizona Democrats are throwing their weight behind Katie Hobbs’ campaign for secretary of state, Arizona’s second-highest office.

With their hopes of unseating Gov. Doug Ducey apparently waning, Arizona Democrats are throwing their weight behind Katie Hobbs’ campaign for secretary of state.

Political consultants say the race between Hobbs, a state lawmaker, and Republican candidate Steve Gaynor, a wealthy businessman,has increasingly become the more competitive statewide contest on the Nov. 6 ballot.

In Arizona, the secretary of state is the second-highest office holder — next in line to succeed the governor — and he or she oversees the statewide elections system.

Democrats appear to be betting on the secretary’s race, not their gubernatorial challenger, David Garcia.

The Arizona Democratic Party has spent about $2.2 million on TV airtime supporting Hobbs in the final leg of the race, according to records with the Federal Communications Commission. There are no FCC records showing similar spending on Garcia from the party.

DJ Quinlan, a consultant and former executive director of the state party, said there’s a recognition that Hobbs’ race presents “a real opportunity” for a statewide win.

“Obviously, we’ve seen the numbers in the governor’s race head in the wrong direction,” Quinlan said, adding that the party is “choosing to strategically place their investment” in Hobbs’ race.

Democrats had been bullish that gubernatorial candidate David Garcia could beat incumbent Ducey given talk of a “blue wave” this fall and energy around the #RedForEd teacher movement.

But Garcia fell significantly behind Ducey in polls before early ballots hit mailboxes this week.

Matthew Benson, a Republican consultant not involved in the race, said it’s clear that Democrats are prioritizing Hobbs’ race because it might be their best shot to get close to the governor’s chair in the next four years.

“Garcia’s campaign is unsalvageable at this point and the Democratic Party knows it, so they’re shifting resources,” Benson said of investment in Hobbs’ race.

Party officials have downplayed the spending disparity, saying the ad buy reflects strong support for Hobbs, not necessarily that they’ve thrown in the towel on Garcia.

“We are supporting both of those campaigns financially and we’re committed to ensuring that all of our candidates can win in November,” said Les Braswell, a spokesman for the state party.

Republicans currently hold all six of Arizona’s statewide elected executive offices, from governor to treasurer and superintendent of public instruction.

That’s why Democrats are eager to pick up the secretary of state’s seat. They contend the race is wide open after Gaynor, a political newcomer and businessman, ousted incumbent Michele Reagan in the GOP primary.

But recent polling suggests Gaynor has built a decent lead, though many voters are still undecided.

Two recent polls showed different results, with Gaynor leading anywhere from 7 to 14 percentage points. An earlier poll, which didn’t include the candidates’ party affiliations, showed him with only a 4-point lead.

Kevin DeMenna, a Republican lobbyist, commissioned the poll that showed the closest contest. That survey found more than 60 percent of voters were undecided.

He said his firm’s survey suggests many voters simply don’t know what the secretary of state does, so the race could shift dramatically as the candidates battle for traction on the airwaves.

DeMenna said voters ought to take it seriously given Arizona history suggests the secretary has a strong chance of becoming governor. Four of the last nine governors ascended from the office.

“This is still the vice president of Arizona,” he said, adding the lack of familiarity shows the need to rename the position to “lieutenant governor” so voters understand.

Gaynor easily defeated Reagan in the primary after he poured about $1.5 million of his own fortune into TV ads slamming her record of election-related missteps.

He kicked off the general election campaign on the same tenor, with an attack ad that labeled Hobbs an “radical leftist.” So far, he has booked about $865,000 in commercials before Nov. 6.

But Democrats and Hobbs appear determined to not let Gaynor dominate the airwaves and define her to voters.

On top of the Democratic Party’s $2.2 million ad buy, Hobbs has booked at least $300,000 in airtime. She will have over 1,000 television spots by Election Day.

One ad touts Hobb’s experience helping run a large domestic-violence shelter and work as a state lawmaker, including passing a bipartisan bill to end a backlog of untested rape kits.

Another attacks Gaynor, labeling him as “inexperienced“given he’s never held public office. That line appears to be Hobbs’ chief attack in the homestretch.

“We knew that this would be a close race,” Hobbs said in an email to

“I’m looking forward to making the case to Arizona’s voters why I’m the most qualified candidate for secretary of state.”

Brian Seitchik, Gaynor’s political consultant, again attacked Hobbs over a comment she made earlier this year about how winning the seat would help Democrats hold onto elected offices.

Seitchik said that the “promise to use the secretary of state’s office to elect more Democrats made her campaign of high interest to radical leftist donors who want to make Arizona more like California.”

He added that he suspects California billionaire Tom Steyer gave the Democratic Party money for Hobbs’ ads because they have a “shared radical agenda.”

Hobbs has said her comment was about voter suppression and how Arizona has laws and practices that make it harder for certain types of people, such as minorities, to vote.

Hobbs’ campaign fired back at the Steyer accusation. Niles Harris, her campaign manager, said Gaynor “is literally making things up.”

“Katie has received the support from over 8,000 donors and with the average gift under $100,” Harris said in an email. “Gaynor is trying to buy the office for himself and is scared that he is losing.”

The Arizona Democratic Party wouldn’t say who contributed the money to fund the roughly $2.2 million ad buy for Hobbs. The next finance-reporting deadline is Monday.

Hobbs has the cash advantage the moment, but it might not last.

Gaynor has said he plans to continue contributing heavily to his own campaign. He also recently held a fundraiser, headlined by Ducey and other prominent Republicans.

Benson said more cash for Gaynor is likely on the way: “If the Republican party knows the No. 2 office is at risk, you’re going to see the cavalry come in behind Steve Gaynor.” for