Election predictions from both sides

What should we expect on Nov. 6? Will a blue wave materialize, as some have suggested, turning Arizona's traditionally red-state politics on its head? Or will this midterm election wind up like many before it?

We asked experts on both sides of the aisle about what to look for and whom to watch on Election Night.

Here's what they said:

2018 may be year of the woman

Women voters will finally turn Arizona purple. Keep an eye on the women voter percentage. If it hits 52 percent — as I expect it will — look for Kyrsten Sinema, Ann Kirkpatrick, Katie Hobbs, Kathy Hoffman, Sandra Kennedy and (maybe) January Contreras Democratic victories.

Today all 11 Arizona non-federal statewide offices are held by Republicans. That’s about to change. Purple indeed!

— Chris Herstam, Democratic strategist

What is being said about taxes?

If the polling is correct and Proposition 126, the ban on a sales tax on services, goes down, that would be one of the most astonishing things I’ve seen in more than four decades of Arizona politics. Millions of dollars spent in favor of putting a lid on taxes, with little in the way of funded opposition. And Arizona voters reject it?

It would also be consequential. Tax wonks have long advocated broadening the sales tax base.

Steve Farley made it the cornerstone of his bid for governor. Doug Ducey has hinted vaguely about fundamental tax reform in a second term, which presumably would include broadening the sales tax base.

A "no" vote wouldn’t signal voter support of such a move. But it would signal an openness to having the discussion.

— Robert Robb, columnist

Watch the Democratic turnout

There are 3 areas I’ll be watching for Tuesday: turnout, turnout and turnout.

Based on early voting results, the huge blue wave that exists in many eastern states may be smaller than hoped for in Arizona. On the other hand, Republicans always out-vote Democrats in early balloting, and the spread was less than normal for a non-presidential year election. Dems tend to vote in higher numbers on Election Day.

I’ll also be watching closely the Sinema-McSally result, along with everyone else. The winner might not be known until Wednesday, Thursday or even Friday, because of the tightness of the race.

— Barry Dill, Democratic strategist

Look to the Midwest for a preview

For those who can’t wait until 8 p.m. on Tuesday, election results in the Midwest should give people a good idea of how things will play out in Arizona.

If Democrats make significant gains in legislative and congressional seats in that area of that country, then they have reason to be optimistic in Arizona.

Conversely, if Republicans are doing well in the Midwest, then there’s a good chance that there won’t be any sort of blue wave and things will look good for Republicans in Arizona on election night.

The results in other states are admittedly an imperfect predictor, but in a year like 2018 where we are looking at a somewhat nationalized election, the results in the Midwest should give us an early indication of how things will go here in Arizona. — Chris Baker, Republican strategist

The big surprise? Arizona's House

History will be written by female voters this election cycle. Kyrsten Sinema will become the first female to serve Arizona in the U.S. Senate. Katie Hobbs (secretary of state) and Kathy Hoffman (superintendent of public instruction) will end the Republican dominance of state offices (keep your eyes on the attorney general and Corporation Commission races, too).

But the really big surprise? That could be in the Arizona state House. Democrats could pick up three to six seats in that chamber, making it closer than it’s been in decades. Hold onto your hats — Election Day is going to be a roller coaster.

— Chad Campbell, Democratic strategist

This union may rue its choices

Save Our Schools, an all-volunteer effort, referred the voucher bill passed by the Legislature. Fifty-thousand teachers marched and got themselves a 20 percent pay hike by 2020.

Then the Arizona Education Association got involved. They gave bad advice to legislative Democrats, encouraging them to vote against the pay hike. They played progressive politics on an income tax initiative that didn’t make the ballot (a sales tax would have passed handily).

They backed Proposition 127 and gubernatorial candidate David Garcia — both are about to lose by double digits. The AEA is a deeply partisan union that used teachers and failed to manage electoral momentum. Time for change.

— Chuck Coughlin, Republican strategist

Moderates will be rewarded

If someone were to ask me what Arizonans want from their elected officials, I would say that we want folks who think independently, who are willing to work across the aisle, and whose focus is on solving real problems.

And as the late Sen. John McCain reminded us, I would say that we also want folks who are willing to be honest and give us some straight talk.

In these final days of the election, as Republicans like Donald Trump and Martha McSally continue their appeals to the far-right, Kyrsten Sinema is campaigning as a true moderate who will get things done.

That message is ultimately why I believe she is going to win.

— Roy Herrera, Democratic strategist

Voters will probably confound us

When you’ve been hit between the eyes (and ears) with months' worth of back-to-back campaign ads, numbness sets in, and the act of actually casting a ballot on Election Day almost seems anti-climactic.

Even so, off to the polls we go ... with $100 million of outrageous adjectives, grainy images and ominous soundtracks balled together in one big, bad memory loop.

So, what’s going to happen?

All the self-appointed smart people in politics are talking about waves, blue and red.

My guess is voters will not get the memo and instead do what they always do: Confound those who make a living trying to understand the elegant performance of self-governance in action.

— Stan Barnes, Republican strategist