Elections offered unexpected lessons
WASHINGTON – The most tumultuous midterm elections in a generation broke new ground and shook old norms.
What have we learned?
1. It’s 2020 already
President Trump filed for re-election the day he was inaugurated, and his campaign already has raised $100 million and begun airing TV and digital
ads. So it should be no surprise that Trump strode on center stage more aggressively than any other modern president during the election midway through his term. He drew thousands of supporters to huge rallies, where he talked more about himself than the candidates he was there to boost. Some were in states crucial for his re-election prospects. On Monday, he closed the campaign with events in Ohio, Indiana and Missouri, and officially announced his 2020 slogan: “Keep America Great.”
For Democratic presidential hopefuls, the campaign was an opportunity to audition. A stream of potential contenders managed to make their way to Iowa, the state that is slated to hold the opening presidential caucuses in 15 months or so: Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Kamala Harris of California and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Plus governors Steve Bullock of Montana, John Hicklenlooper of Colorado and Jay Inslee of Washington State. And Representatives Eric Swalwell of California and John Delaney of Maryland. Even Stormy Daniels’ lawyer Michael Avenatti.
2. There’s a new political divide
A college diploma is the new political divide.
The gender gap — the tendency for women to vote more Democratic than men do — is familiar, a regular feature of American elections since 1980. Now a sharp divide over education has added another dimension and opened a new breach between white voters who have a college degree and those who don’t. (African American voters at all education levels typically vote Democratic.)
The education gap is particularly spectacular between college-educated white women and non-college educated white men.
Going into Tuesday’s election, white college-educated women preferred Democratic congressional candidates by 18 percentage points, a Marist/NPR Poll found, while white men without a college degree backed Republicans by 33 points — a 51-point swing.
That helps explain both parties’ campaign strategies. Republicans focused on ousting Democratic senators from heartland states like Indiana, Missouri and Montana, where the population is whiter, older and less likely to have a college degree than states on the coasts. Democrats aimed their efforts at defeating House Republicans from suburban districts across the country where more residents have graduated from college.
3. Obamacare is recovering
In the last two midterms, no issue hurt Democratic congressional candidates more than the Affordable Care Act. Backlash to the law contributed to the historic loss of 63 House seats in 2010 — and with that Democratic control — and another 13 in 2014. But in a turnaround, most of the ads that mentioned the Affordable Care Act this time were being aired by Democrats.