Michigan moves to 4th in CFP as picture clears up

Michigan moved into the fourth spot of the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday night, behind Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame.

Georgia was next at five, followed by Oklahoma.

The playoff picture cleared up after a weekend where several contenders asserted themselves. The top-four teams in the final rankings Dec. 2 will play in the national semifinals.

The Crimson Tide easily dispatched LSU from the top four, beating the Tigers 29-0. LSU, though, only dropped to No. 7 after its second loss, ahead of Washington State, West Virginia and Ohio State – all with only one loss.

Unbeaten Notre Dame moved up one spot to No. 3, and Michigan jumped a spot after a 42-7 victory against Penn State.

With four weeks left in the season, nine of the top 10 teams are serious contenders. LSU is basically out, because the Tigers have no chance to win a conference title.

Assuming the top three unbeaten teams would get in by winning out, here are the paths to the playoff.

No. 1 Alabama (9-0): The Tide is already locked into the SEC championship game and has built up enough equity that even a regular-season loss to Mississippi State or Auburn won’t keep Tua Tagovailoa and Co. out of the playoff. Now if they lost twice … yeah, that’s probably not happening. The only intrigue involving Alabama is whether the Tide could lose the SEC championship game, finish 12-1 and still get in? The chances are probably decent.

No. 2 Clemson (9-0): Like Alabama, the Tigers have some room for a regularseason misstep, but their position is not a strong as the Tide’s. With a loss to ACC Atlantic rival Boston College on Saturday, Clemson would be at risk of being shut out of the conference title game. Ohio State and Alabama both made the playoff at 11-1, without even playing for a league title the last two seasons. The Tigers could, too, but it is no slam dunk.

No. 3 Notre Dame (9-0): The Irish finish with three winnable games, but no locks. Notre Dame fans believe their team holds a trump card against Michigan, with that season-opening victory in South Bend. That could buffer the Irish against one loss in their final three games, but with no conference title and some struggling marquee teams on their schedule such as Virginia Tech and Stanford, Notre Dame is not a lock if it gets into a resume contest with other one-loss teams. Even one it beat.

No. 4 Michigan (8-1): The Wolverines have to feel good about controlling their path to the playoff. Winning out, including at Ohio State, puts Jim Harbaugh’s team at 12-1 with a Big Ten title. That’s a resume with victories against Michigan State, Wisconsin and Penn State, and a seven-point road loss to Notre Dame. One loss and Michigan is out, right? Not so fast. Take a quick glance at the rankings and notice how many highly ranked teams still have to play each other. It won’t take more than one or two mild upsets to have the selection committee sifting through a bunch of two-loss teams to fill the final playoff spot.