The evolved Ducey fits today’s Arizona
The size of Gov. Doug Ducey’s reelection will be dismissed as a function of an overwhelming funding advantage and the incompetent campaign of his Democratic opponent, David Garcia.
Those are undoubtedly factors. But to attribute the enormity of the victory exclusively, or even primarily, to those factors is to miss the true significance.
Ducey, as he has evolved in office, fits today’s Arizona very well.
Referring to the “evolved” Ducey is purposeful and central.
Ducey first ran for governor, in 2014, as a transformative conservative reformer. Income taxes would be reduced to as close to zero as possible. The school finance formula would be re-engineered to produce more bang for the buck. And that would be an interim step to true backpack funding, in which the same bucks would follow each student to whatever school the student attends in an expansive school choice milieu.
That Doug Ducey never showed up for work. In his first term, virtually nothing was done on this conservative reform agenda. Instead, Ducey governed as a prudent caretaker and a pragmatic problem-solver.
A state budget in deep distress was guided to reasonable sustainability. A lawsuit over inflation funding for K-12 education was settled. The #RedforEd movement was finessed.
The state’s economy has been steadily improving. Ducey’s contributions were mostly in signaling — a favorable and predictable regulatory environment and a tamper on legislation that invited national scorn and ridicule.
Ducey’s principal concrete contribution to the improving state economy was inaction: allowing the corporate income tax rate cuts that were approved before he became governor to be phased in as scheduled.
While there are still a lot of votes to be counted, Ducey is on track to gain about 58 percent of the vote in an election in which Republicans were around 40 percent of the turnout. That suggests he did very well among independents in an election in which they generally tilted strongly toward Democrats. And perhaps even got a higher-than-usual crossover Democratic vote.
In this election, that was an accomplishment with cascading impact.
For Republicans, the threat was that the blue wave would not only elevate Democratic turnout. But that independents and Never-Trump Republicans would vote against Republicans up and down the ticket to express disapproval of President Donald Trump.
Ducey kept that from happening in Arizona. By holding the GOP vote intact and doing well with independents, he made it less likely that other Republican candidates would have the sins of Trump held against them.
Some of us would prefer Ducey the conservative reformer. And some in conservative circles even hope that he will show up for work in a second term.
The election results for the Legislature, however, don’t seem to provide much political space for that.
Some races remain in doubt as of this writing. But even if Republicans retain their 17-13 advantage in the Arizona Senate, that body’s GOP caucus will be far more moderate than in recent years. The days of Senate President Andy Biggs cementing a conservative consensus and outmaneuvering the House are over.
And, if Republicans retain control of the House, it will be by a narrow margin.
Legislating will be more difficult and ideology will count for less.
This is not a political environment conducive to implementing big ideas. It’s an environment in which just coping with issues and problems as they arise will be challenging enough.
Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a liberal politician and thinker, once gave a collection of his essays titled, “Coping.” His point was that a government that copes competently is actually an important achievement.
That is what voters saw and appreciated in Ducey: the prudent caretaker and pragmatic problem-solver.
I suspect that Ducey the transformative conservative reformer still lurks within him somewhere.
Voters, who rewarded Ducey for being a steady hand, either consciously or serendipitously have created a political environment around him in which that guy probably stays bottled up.