ASU, UA still have paths to Pac-12 championship
Breaking down how ASU, UA can secure a trip to the Pac-12 Championship Game
There are a blitz of football bowl scenarios in the Pac-12, and in Tempe and Tucson, the Sun Devils and the Wildcats still have roads available to reach the conference title game and the Rose Bowl.
If, if, if, if, if …
There are a blitz of bowl scenarios in the Pac-12, but the ones that matter in this state speak to a range of possibilities that would make an actuary want to set fire to a spreadsheet.
For Arizona State and Arizona, there are roads to the Rose Bowl. Of course, ASU could end up in the lowest-tier game associated with the conference, and UA might not make one, at all.
In this carnival of a college football season, ASU coach Herm Edwards and UA coach Kevin Sumlin know how far their pirate-ship rides can swing.
“To me, it’s kinda like in the NFL, getting in the playoffs,” Edwards said. His team is already bowl-eligible.
“We always said it’s a race to 10 (wins) in the National Football League,” Edwards said. “You get to 10, then things
start looking real good. You’re probably gonna get in the playoffs. More than that, you might win a division. … In college, you need to win six. That’s always the number out there, that’s the carrot. If you get to that, you’re eligible. If you win more, then bigger bowl games appear. Players are wellaware of that. It’s a good thing.” Sumlin is staying in the moment. “Everybody else wants to talk about what could be,” he said, “but we have to be mature enough and focused enough — and we have been with the way we’ve played the last couple weeks — to focus on the task at hand, which is Washington State. If you’re worried about anything more than that, then it’s gonna affect your play.”
But given where each program was back in January, it’s remarkable where they stand.
The Sun Devils were being dragged for filth after bringing Edwards from the ESPN studios to the sidelines, and the Wildcats were scrambling to move past a sexual harassment lawsuit that created the opening that led to Sumlin’s hire.
Eleven months ago, anyone who predicted a Territorial Cup with the Pac-12 South title on the line would have been dismissed as a homer or been put on an Illuminati watch list.
For the record, here’s the straightest path to Pasadena for ASU:
❚ ASU gets a road win over Oregon on Saturday night.
❚ ASU beats Arizona in Tucson on Nov. 24.
❚ ASU wins Pac-12 Championship Game on Nov. 30.
Arizona needs a little help on its road to the Rose Bowl:
❚ Utah loses at Colorado on Saturday afternoon.
❚ UA wins at No. 9 Washington
State on Saturday night.
❚ UA beats ASU in the Territorial
Cup.
❚ UA wins Pac-12 Championship
Game.
ASU (6-4, 4-3 Pac-12) is better positioned than UA (5-5, 4-3) on trails toward the Tournament of Roses, and in general.
With six wins, the Sun Devils already are bowl-eligible. If they lose their final two, they could end up in what’s essentially a home game, the Cheez-It Bowl at Chase Field. Also possible are the Alamo, Holiday and Sun bowls.
The Wildcats face a tougher schedule and need another win to get eligible.
Aside from being a top-10 team, Washington State (9-1, 6-1) is undefeated at home, and UA has only one win on the road.
The Territorial Cup could be the difference between playing in a bowl and sitting at home.
“I just think you make yourself eligible for postseason play, that’s a step in Year 1,” Sumlin said. “But you can’t get caught up in all this other stuff. … The things that you’re talking about, nothing really happens without going to Pullman and playing very, very well this week.”
For what it’s worth, ASU can secure the South on Saturday, but it’s comical how convoluted it gets. (Take a deep breath. We’re going to get through this together — with the help of Pac-12 contingency crunchers, who assisted with the following walkthrough.)
If ASU beats Oregon, and Arizona and Utah (7-3, 5-3) both lose, ASU wins the South — even if the Sun Devils go on to lose in Tucson.
Now, you would be correct if you’re thinking, “But, dude, if that happens, all three of those teams would be 5-4 in conference, and USC could be, too. Also, Arizona would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over ASU.”
But that’s where it gets tricky. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head matchups.
USC would be out with losses to ASU and Utah. The remaining three teams — ASU, UA and Utah — would be 1-1 against one another.
The next tiebreaker is divisional record. ASU and Utah would be 3-2. UA would be 2-3, eliminating the Wildcats.
Going back to head-to-head games, ASU beat Utah, so the Sun Devils would head to the conference championship game with a trip to the Rose Bowl at stake.
Again, it’s amazing that we’re at this point, given where we were back in January.
“It’s just fun,” Edwards said of bowl games, in general. “I think it’s fun.”