Timetable for Kyl’s expected Senate exit still unclear

Gov. Doug Ducey and Sen. Jon Kyl are not offering a timetable for Kyl’s potential departure in the U.S. Senate, but outwardly there appears to be no rush to appoint a Republican replacement before Democratic Sen.-elect Kyrsten Sinema takes her oath of office in January.

Ducey tapped Kyl, a Republican who had previously served three terms in the Senate, to return to the Senate in September, following the Aug. 25 death of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.

Kyl made no commitment to stay in

the Senate until Arizona’s 2020 election, when the seat would appear on the ballot. If he departs, the governor would have to make another appointment to the seat.

Ducey’s staff would not talk about the governor’s discussions with Kyl or other advisers about the scheduling of meetings to discuss an appointment or the names of those under consideration to succeed Kyl.

“We’re hopeful that Sen. Kyl will serve the term all the way through,” Ducey spokesman Daniel Ruiz said. “At this point, there is no vacancy and we will not speculate.”

There are signs that Kyl may be looking to leave.

In a recent interview with The Arizona Republic, Kyl spoke as though his departure was inevitable. The Washington

Post reported that during a private phone call, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell asked Ducey to consider appointing Republican Rep. Martha McSally, who was the losing GOP nominee in this year’s Senate race.

Seniority is based on the date of swearing-in and is a key factor in deciding committee assignments, appointments and the selection of offices or desks. It can be particularly valuable over time when it comes to getting membership on a committee or a subcommittee, but party control generally trumps seniority.

Each state has a “senior senator” and a “junior senator,” based on which one was sworn-in first. In Arizona’s situation, the distinction wouldn’t matter much, given that the two new senators would roughly have the same amount of seniority and would hail from different political parties. State law would require Ducey to appoint another Republican to replace Kyl.

“Seniority only matters if your party is in the majority,” said Lara Brown, the director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University. “Being a minority member of either chamber drastically reduces your influence.”

Senate rules and traditions reward seniority. A six-term senator, McCain was Arizona’s senior statesman and had amassed an enormous amount of clout, including as the chairman of the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee.

Sinema will be sworn in on Jan. 3 and her spokesman did not return a call to talk about the timing of any possible appointment of another new senator from Arizona.

After serving three terms in the House of Representatives, Sinema joins a chamber in which Democrats are the minority. Republicans kept and expanded their majority in the Senate to 53-47 during the 2018 elections.

It would be unlikely that Kyl would leave the Senate before the end of the lame-duck session, when Republicans and President Donald Trump will try to push some significant policy wins before the incoming Democrat-controlled House is seated in January. The session could adjourn in mid-December.

Republicans may try to help Trump fund a border wall, setting up a battle that could lead to a partial government shutdown.

“We have to finish the session of the Senate,” Kyl told The Arizona Republic on Oct. 31 when asked about his plans. “... That will finish up. There’s still work to be done … and I’m going to tell him (Ducey), we’re going to finish all of that and then we’ll see.

“It’s not for any lack of interest, and it’s certainly an incredible honor to go back and work for the people of Arizona. … But I have family needs as well, so we’ll decide what to do at that point.”

Brown said a more likely scenario is that Kyl announces his resignation without stepping down.

“I have a hard time imagining that Mitch McConnell is going to be in favor of a Republican vacancy when the Senate is still closely divided because it’s still 51-49,” she said. “... They need every vote for every piece of legislation.”

Any new appointee could be sworn in before Sinema takes office, denying her senior-senator status. Or, Sinema and a new appointee could both be sworn in on Jan. 3. Under that scenario, they would have near-equal seniority unless Sinema’s years of service in the House of Representatives outweighs years of service of the appointee’s. Alternatively, a new appointee could be sworn in after Jan. 3, giving Sinema the seniority.