DECISION ’19
Buy? Sell? Complicated decisions await Diamondbacks as trade deadline looms
As the days and games fall off the calendar, the decision for Diamondbacks General Manager Mike Hazen seems to grow ever more difficult. His team cannot sustain a winning streak – or a losing streak, for that matter. It cannot separate itself from the herd of wild-card contenders.
And so Hazen must continue to wait for clarity that might never come, doing so with the prospect – perhaps even the likelihood – of a potentially regrettable decision looming at the end of the month.
“We’re going to have to make a complicated decision,” Hazen said. “It just doesn’t appear that it’s going to be an easily defined decision.”
The decision is whether to buy or to sell when the July 31 trade deadline arrives. Hazen’s team has sent all manner of mixed messages beyond just its 46-45 record at the All-Star break.
On the bright side, the Diamondbacks have outscored their opponents by 53 runs, the fourth-best mark in the league. Such a run differential works out to an expected record five games better than their actual record. Their offense, though inconsistent, is fourth in the league in runs scored.
The pitching is another story. Outside of a small handful of arms, the staff has struggled in a variety of ways. The rotation, its depth tested by injury, has had ugly stretches, while the bullpen has had issues both protecting leads and keeping games close.
The Diamondbacks have played competitively on the road but they are under .500 at home and are just 19-29 against National League West opponents.
As such, Hazen said the front office is preparing to go in either direction at the deadline. He said the organization’s recent increase in scouting activity at the minor-league level is not an indication it has decided to sell.
“We had done a lot of work at the major-league level early,” he said “I think we are just now making sure we have multiple looks on the other side. I wouldn’t read into how we’re maneuvering our scouts. We’re not changing course here in any way. We’re just trying to maximize our preparation as much as possible.”
Hazen seemed to think there were two possible directions – buying or selling – with the possibility of doing both simultaneously. He did not seem to think standing pat was a likely outcome.
“I don’t think it has to be as drastic as buy/sell,” he said. “Like in this offseason, there may be some creative things we need to do to help us now and in the future and I think those possibilities exist.”
What that means, exactly, remains to be seen. The club seemingly has a couple of categories of potentially available trade chips. First, there are the impending free agents such as relievers Greg Holland and Yoshihisa Hirano, outfielders Adam Jones and Jarrod Dyson and infielder Wilmer Flores.
Then there are those with one-plus year of club control, including left-hander Robbie Ray, outfielder David Peralta, infielder Jake Lamb and shortstop Nick Ahmed. (Flores could fit into both categories; his contract includes a team option for 2020.) Removing some of players from the roster, of course, would be far more painful than others.
If they were to buy, the Diamondbacks have any number of needs on the pitching side. Rotation depth seems an obvious area, as does bullpen help. If the club buys, Hazen said, it doesn’t have to buy solely with this year in mind; for example, the past two deadlines have seen the Diamondbacks add catcher John Ryan Murphy and pitcher Matt Andriese, both of whom were under club control for multiple years.
Given where they are in the standings – 13 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the division, bunched together with eight other teams in the wild-card race – buying seems riskier than in previous years. Doing so would mean the Diamondbacks would be gunning for merely a one-game playoff.
The Diamondbacks also must take stock of where they are now and down the road, especially within their division.
The Dodgers look like nothing less than a juggernaut, a power that isn’t going away anytime soon. The Padres are on the rise and a threat to pass the Diamondbacks soon. They serve as an example of a club that is close to enjoying the payoff of a drawn-out rebuild.
The other two clubs in the division are examples in their own way. The Giants of the past few years repeatedly tried to prolong their window and instead backed themselves into a bleak organizational reality. The Rockies, meanwhile, haven’t been bad in recent years, but they haven’t been able to consistently contend with the Dodgers.
Hazen doesn’t seem to view the juxtaposition of directions in terms so black and white. He believes the organization has improved its farm system significantly in recent years, both through the draft and the international market, and he has argued that the building of a healthy organization does not require a full teardown, even with small- to mid-market teams, citing the Milwaukee Brewers as an example.
But Hazen said he isn’t going to charge ahead if he doesn’t have reason to do so. With less than three weeks before the break, the Diamondbacks are running out of time to make their case.
“We’re not going to get to a point where I think we’re going to behave irresponsibly,” Hazen said. “I think we’re cognizant of where we stand relative to the division. But I don’t think we would just pass up on an opportunity to try to win if that were in front of us.
“Like I said, that needs to be in front of us. We’re not just going to hope that it’s in front of us.”