Rain helps but poses risks for firefighters
Museum Fire rages as some areas prepare for storms, flash flooding
FLAGSTAFF – Six-hundred firefighters are preparing for another long day of beating back the flames of the Museum Fire burning about a mile north of Flagstaff. The fire is now estimated to be 1,887 acres and is 12 percent contained, fire officials said on Wednesday.
Acreage estimates fluctuated earlier in the week because crews could not get an accurate estimate. But late Tuesday, they were able to fly over the fire with an infrared camera; this more accurate estimate will help crews work smarter, not harder.
Throughout Wednesday, fire crews focused on lessening the fire’s footprint, working mostly from the ground in areas harder to reach from the air. They’ve already established a perimeter to protect parts of Flagstaff proper, the city’s and county’s watershed, nearby homes, and power and water lines.
Firefighters have been able to contain the fire’s footprint and keep it well beyond that perimeter thanks to some moisture from the rain over the past few days.
No structures have burned, and no one has been injured. The estimated cost of fighting the fire so far is about $2 million.
Storms pose a double-edge sword
While the rain has helped, it also poses risks of flash flooding, which Incident Cmdr. Rich Nieto acknowledged.
Nieto and his crew are working with law enforcement and other Coconino County officials to address this.
“We have not got the rain that we’d like to have,” Nieto said, adding that the moisture and humidity have helped keep the fire from burning intensely in certain areas. Crews expected some light rain and moisture Wednesday, with the rest of the week forecast to be drier.
Those monsoon storms they’re hoping for might be a double-edged sword. Todd Abel, operations chief with the Central Arizona Fire and Medical Authority, said the storms mostly help, but they can bring strong gusts of wind, which could spread the fire.
“We still have heat on the line, and if we get those outflow winds, that will move that fire,” Abel said, adding that it would put hotshots at risk.
“So that’s why we have to be very diligent and careful in kind of easing our way into making sure we have escape routes to leave if we get those winds.”
Abel acknowledged storms also could bring flooding, saying that the more severe the fire burns, the more it ripens the soil for flash flooding. Those walls of water would carry debris from the fire into neighborhoods at risk.
There are some areas where the fire burned particularly long and intensely. Abel said that level of intensity is gone for now, thanks to the wet weather. Now, crews have to focus on “taking that intensity out” permanently as they continue to encroach on the footprint.
However, flooding concerns are still a top priority for the team, Abel said, and they are working closely with city and county officials to make sure they’re ready if anything were to happen.
Nieto added that a burned area emergency recovery team will be in town on Thursday to determine how severe burning is and what the flood risks are.
“We’re trying to avoid that footprint,” Nieto said, adding that they meticulously plan the placement and intensity of intentional fires they set so as not to add to that risk.
“That’s what makes this very complex. We don’t want to put fire where we don’t need to. We’re very mindful of the soil stability and erosion.”
Recovering from flooding connected to earlier fires
Meanwhile, parts of Flagstaff are still recovering and mitigating from catastrophic flooding that started at the burn scars of fires like this. The longer the fire burns into monsoon season, the more likely that flooding could happen.
Some flooding happened last year and happens when heavy rains hit, but
the worst of the flooding the city saw happened after the 2010 Schultz Fire. That fire’s scar left behind a path for flooding that destroyed homes and killed 12-year-old Shaelyn Wilson.
Neighborhoods at risk of flooding, officials have said, are Mount Elden, Lookout Estates, Paradise Road, Grandview Drive and Sunnyside. People living there are filling sandbags.
Residents from that area can pick up filled sandbags from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Wednesday at the Coconino High School South Parking lot, 2801 N. Izael St. in Flagstaff. Those who live in those areas are being encouraged to buy flood insurance, which can be done by contacting an insurance company or by visiting floodsmart.gov.
Neighborhood frustrations
Many neighborhoods were ordered to evacuate Monday night. On Wednesday afternoon, the Coconino County Sheriff’s Office lifted evacuations for the Elden Lookout Road area and allowed people to return to their homes, where they remain in the “set” pre-evacuation order.
Many others are waiting in limbo, stuck on preevacuation notice.
They vented their frustration in a community meeting Tuesday night at Flagstaff High School.
Nieto was part of a panel of city, county, state and federal officials discussing the fire and the hazards that come with it. It took hours to answer the public’s questions and address those frustrations. Like Nieto and others said, they’re in that notice for a reason, and conditions can change in an instant.
This is not in any way a “homestretch,” Nieto said, but crews are making progress and will lift those orders when it’s safe.
“Until you get that real monsoonal push, it’s going to take some time,” Nieto said.