Kingsbury’s calls doom Cardinals in loss to Saints
NEW ORLEANS — Here in the land of voodoo, it would have been wise for the Cardinals to think they would need some magic Sunday to upset the Saints.
Instead, Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury turned actuary and allowed analytics to intercede and created a critical juncture in the game when it wasn’t needed.
It wasn’t the only reason the Cardinals lost, 31-9. The Saints are older, wiser and more talented. Eventually, those qualities won out.
But Kingsbury’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 from his own 30-yard line with 7 1⁄2 minutes left in the third quarter flipped the game, ended the Cardinals chances of upsetting the Saints and moving above .500 for the first time in almost four years.
“Not at all,” Kingsbury said when asked if the decision was difficult. “The analytics, plus myself, I was all for that.”
The decision was as bold as it was unwise.
Despite being outplayed in every phase, the Cardinals trailed just 10-6 at the time. Patrick Peterson had just intercepted a pass by Drew Brees. And the Cardinals faced third-and-one from the 30.
They tried to sneak running back Chase Edmonds out for a pass in the flat, but defensive end Cameron Jordan knocked Edmonds off his route. Quarterback Kyler Murray tried to adjust, but the pass was incomplete.
It wasn’t a bad play selection, especially since the Cardinals had rushed six times for 12 yards at that point. What followed next, however, was a bad call. Edmonds was crushed for no gain on a handoff up the middle.
Saints ball at the Cardinals 30. Five plays later, the Saints led, 17-6, and the game was over except for the twenty minutes or so left to play.
From Edmonds to the offensive line to
Murray, Cardinals players backed their coach’s decision after the game.
“I know I f----d that play up,” said left guard Justin Pugh. “I didn’t do my part on that play. It was loud, we tried to communicate across and it got messed up.” And there was no reason for it. The Cardinals trailed by just four points at the time. The Saints hadn’t scored in nearly 15 minutes. The smarter play would have been to punt — Andy Lee had been flipping field position all day — and make the Saints work for their next score.
Kingsbury is correct. Analytics were on his side.
Edj Sports, an analytics firm that contracts with college and professional teams, tweeted that Kingsbury’s decision increased the Cardinals chance of winning by 3.4%.
A team can expect to convert on fourth down about 70% of the time, according to the digit crunchers, and prior to Sunday, the Cardinals had converted on all five of their fourth-down attempts this season.
But on this Sunday?
In a noisy Superdome? Against one of the NFC’s best defenses?
When you had averaged 2 yards a rush?
With more than 22 minutes left to play?
“They were moving the ball well,” Kingsbury said, “and we felt like at that point, after getting the turnover, we had to make something happen. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out. You’ve got to give them a lot of credit. They have a great defense and made a play.”
The final score, 31-9, is deceiving. The Saints seemed in control throughout, yet the Cardinals were within one score late in the third quarter.
The Cardinals were doing just enough to loiter on the edges of an upset, and at times Murray appeared to be getting into a rhythm.
Kingsbury’s fourth down call wasn’t the only mistake the Cardinals made an offense. They failed to score a touchdown in two red-zone opportunities in the first half, for which Kingsbury accepted blame, saying he made poor play calls.
Maybe. Or, more likely, the Saints are just that much better the Cardinals (34-1).
The Cardinals should be able to put this game behind them quickly. The Saints (7-1) are among the best teams in the NFC, and with the return of quarterback Drew Brees from a thumb injury, the Superdome was rocking.
The Cardinals weren’t expected to make a game of it, and they did for three quarters. It’s obvious they are better than they were a month ago.
Kingsbury has developed as an NFL offensive coordinator in the first half of the season. He’s been flexible enough to use more two-tight end formations and occasionally put Murray under center, things we didn’t see much of in the opening weeks of the season.
There aren’t enough playmakers on defense, but while the Saints moved the ball, they had trouble scoring — until Kingsbury and the Cardinals gifted them the ball with that failed fourth-decision and play call.
The percentages might have been on Kingsbury’s side. But common sense has its place in football, too.