Unbeatens often evenly matched
Arizona Republic sports writer Jeff Metcalfe breaks down Saturday's 49th Fiesta Bowl/College Football Playoff semifinal between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Clemson.
OHIO STATE PASS OFFENSE VS. CLEMSON PASS DEFENSE
Clemson leads the nation in fewest passing yards allowed (138.5 pg) with only two opponents surpassing 200 yards passing. Ohio State QB Justin Fields, who finished third in Heisman Trophy voting, completes 67.5 percent of his passes and is No. 4 nationally in passing efficiency with 40 touchdowns to one interception. Which side will give more in that matchup is one of many compelling story lines between two unbeatens that are largely even on paper. Fields still is not fully recovered from a left knee injury suffered Nov. 23 against Penn State but has played in two games since, wearing a soft brace vs. Michigan and bulkier brace in the Big Ten title game comeback win over Wisconsin. If Fields is somewhat more one-dimensional due to the knee, it helps Clemson's defensive pressure, which then could help the secondary, led by AP third team All-America S Tanner Muse. The Buckeyes average almost 14 yards per completion with receivers Chris Olave and K.J. Hill combining for 1,368 yards and 21 touchdowns. The Tigers are No. 4 nationally with 17 interceptions -- four by Muse and six combined by the three other starting defensive backs -- playing a big part in their No. 5 turnover margin ranking.
Edge: Ohio State
OHIO STATE RUN OFFENSE VS. CLEMSON RUN DEFENSE
Ohio State runs the ball better than it throws it, at least by national ranking. The Buckeyes are No. 5 in rush offense behind J.K. Dobbins, who is No. 4 individually with 140.7 yards per game. Clemson allows an average of just 106.2 yards rushing and only three opponents have cracked 150 yards on the ground. The Tigers are not as fearsome up front defensively as in the recent past but LB Isaiah Simmons is unanimous All-America first-team and Butkus Award winner with 14 tackles for loss and seven sacks. Dobbins, a 5-10 junior, has 4,285 career rushing yards, second in Ohio State history behind Archie Griffin (5,589). He has 20 rushing touchdowns this season, twice as many as QB Justin Fields. The Buckeyes offensive line makes the run game work starting with All-America guard Wyatt Davis. Ohio State has lost 13 fumbles, one of its biggest blemishes, and Clemson undoubtedly will be trying to strip the Buckeyes to add to their 11 fumble recoveries.
Edge: Ohio State
CLEMSON PASS OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE
Like fellow Georgian Justin Fields of Ohio State, Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence is a star sophomore who figures to be near the top of the NFL draft board in 2021. Lawrence is not quite as much of a dual threat as Fields but has run for 407 yards and seven touchdowns on top of 3,172 yards and 34 TDs passing. Ohio State defensive end Chase Young is the highest rated NFL prospect for either team, leads the nation in sacks (16.5) and tackles for loss (21) and was fourth in Heisman Trophy voting. When teams prioritize slowing the 6-5 Young, others in the defensive line -- DaVon Hamilton, Jashon Cornell, Tyreke Smith -- are a problem.
Clemson receivers Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins have 50-plus catches each and a combined 21 touchdowns. The Tigers could get a boost with the return of tight end Braden Galloway, out for a year due to suspension for a failed drug test before last season's Cotton Bowl. Ohio State's secondary is veteran and talented with cornerback Jeff Okudah, like Young, rated among the top five NFL draft prospects by ESPN's Mel Kiper. Shaun Wade, Damon Arnette and Jordan Fuller also are pro potential back-end defenders for the Buckeyes, who have 15 interceptions.
Edge: Ohio State
CLEMSON RUN OFFENSE VS. OHIO STATE RUN DEFENSE
Clemson's Travis Etienne is two-time ACC Player of the Year, the first running back to accomplish that in more than four decades, and All-America second team with 1,500 yards and 17 touchdowns. This is coming off 1,658 yards in 2018, making him the only player in school history with multiple 1,500-yard rushing seasons. Tigers left tackle Jackson Carman will have the unenviable primary duty against Ohio State DE Chase Young, but that job will be exponentially easier if Etienne, who averages 8.2 yards per carry, is able to keep the Tigers out of lengthy third downs. The Buckeyes give up less than 100 yards per game rushing (99.5) while Clemson averages 252.9. So the confrontation is much like that between Ohio State RB J.K. Dobbins and the Tigers' stout run defense. In addition to Etienne, RB Lyn-J Dixon has rushed for 619 yards and QB Trevor Lawrence can't be ignored as a runner.
Edge: Clemson
SPECIAL TEAMS
Ohio State kicker Blake Haubeil made All-Big Ten third team, the individual top recognition for a specialist from either team. Haubeil did not miss on 83 extra points and hit 10-of-12 field goals with a long of 55 yards. Both teams are solid on kickoff return defense. The Buckeyes hold a significant edge in punt return defense but oddly enough Clemson is better in net punting. Football Outsiders computer special teams ranking puts Ohio State at No. 5 and Clemson No. 91. Tigers' kicker B.T. Potter is 12-of-19 on field goals with 50-yard range. The punters are Ohio State's Drue Chrisman (44.1-yard average) and Clemson's Will Spiers (42.5). Joseph Ngata (Clemson) and Demario McCall (Ohio State) are each averaging 23.2 yards on kickoff return.
Edge: Ohio State