Open’s temptress at 17
Is reward worth the risk on hole?
When the lighting hits it from the right angle, the grandstands of the 16th hole can overshadow anything nearby. It’s too early in the day for that to happen on Tuesday, when golfer Xander Schauffele and caddie Austin Kaiser stop to talk strategy on the 17th. And there is something refreshing about their conversation during the practice round: They don’t have to scream.
Normally this part of the Waste Management Phoenix Open is drowned out
in the cheers and jeers from just a few yards over. The 16th hole, the packed in grandstands, the roaring crowd -- it’s all basically synonymous with the Open. But if the 16th hole is the tequila, the 17th is the lime. After the rush of adrenaline, the 17th helps steady golfers, helps remind them that they still have a bit to go, perhaps after a burn.
However, the 17th can be sour, too. It’s a par 4, with a scoring average of 3.74. The 332-yard hole, which can entice golfers to go for the green off the tee but has plenty of trouble spots lurking, is sandwiched between that rambunctious 16th and golfers’ last chance. Plenty of golfers have seen their share of heartbreak there. Strategies and sterile golf skills aside, it can be easy to let the pandemonium of the 16th seep in.
“Coming off 16 is obviously a bit of a mess,” Schauffele said Tuesday, standing on the 17th. “It can kind of influence your focus on this tee box.”
Plus, the spectacle is not contained to the 16th. The grandstands back right up to the next hole, and the rowdy fans, while perhaps very inebriated, are still usually capable of turning their bodies around 180 degrees to heckle the same golfers who just escaped the clutches of the coliseum. They always get the final word.
“Everyone likes to hang over the rails here and yell at you while you try to hit as well,” Schauffele said. “So it’s all in good fun, but it’s such an important hole -statistically one of the harder holes -- before a par-4 18, so you’re definitely trying to pick up a shot on this hole.”
The coupling of the energy of the 16th with the analytics of the 17th makes for a fascinating dynamic. Any player preparing for the Phoenix Open knows he’ll need to steel himself for 16. But how do you prepare to come back to earth? How do you avoid a letdown?
The importance of the 17th is now heightened by the fact that, since last year, it has been part of the Aon Risk Reward Challenge — a PGA and LPGA-wide initiative to track how golfers perform on “the most strategically challenging holes.” For Aon, a global services firm that deals with risk, retirement and health solutions, the emphasis on databased insights and optimization seemed a natural partnership. And at TPC Scottsdale, the 17th becomes more interesting in the context of the flow of the course.
“If this was the second hole, I guarantee the numbers, it wouldn’t be as much of a risk-reward hole,” he said. “Just from the emotional standpoint of things.”
Factor in the lead-up at 15 and the culmination of it all at 18, and those final four holes are a formidable stretch. When the 16th is looked at less as an anomaly and more as one challenge in a gauntlet, the end of the day can become more daunting.
“It’s sort of this entire backside, it all continues out here,” Schauffele said. “So if you’re playing well and can get the crowd on your side, then you’re definitely going to be good to go to make some good decisions and make some good shots.”
Players like Schauffele, who grew up embracing analytics, know that here, they shouldn’t sway from the stats. There’s more data available than ever before. And it helps to work with a caddie like Kaiser, who is also a close friend, to reel him in when emotions run wild. The two have known each other for years, dating back to their San Diego State days, and that deep trust allows them to be adamant in their suggested approach to a hole, especially one like 17.
“There’s certain numbers and statistics and probabilities of certain areas on this hole and I think human error -it is such a simple hole -- and human error is definitely what affects sort of people not making a better score sometimes,” Schauffele said.
“You can put yourself in the right position all you want, and you still have to hit this sort of ‘feely’ shot around the screen here, which is pretty difficult ... especially when your adrenaline is kicked up and everything.”
Throughout the PGA Tour, every designated Risk Reward hole is on the back nine. That was deliberate. That’s where shots are made or missed, and tournaments are decided. Eight different courses feature the 18th as the hole to watch. The winner at the end of the year of Aon’s challenge, on both the PGA and LPGA, receives an additional $1 million. With all that on the line, Kaiser relies on his trust with Schauffele and the data in front of him to strategize.
“We’re both smart-minded people when it comes to golf,” Kaiser said. “And if we combine those two things together, our decision making should never be poor, you know? And taking the emotion out of it — it’s purely purely statistics that we look at — we’ll make a good decision.”
Taking out the emotion is easier when there are not thousands and thousands of fans telling you how you should feel. Schauffele recalls having played the 16th with fan favorites Phil Mickelson and Jon Rahm, making everything louder and louder.
On top of the transition from 16 and the addition of the Risk Reward Challenge, tournament officials have also built up the 17th hole in recent years, hoping to capitalize on spillover from the crowded 16th.
But no matter what changes around them or what happens the hole before, Schauffele is clear about his plan with Kaiser when it comes to taking risks on 17.
“(It) doesn’t matter if you’re nervous or not: Probability is probability,” Schauffele said.