Whatever outcome, impeachment no mistake

There was more uncertainty about the outcome of Soviet show trials than there is about the charade taking place in the U.S. Senate. If we end up with no witnesses or evidence, the entire event will be revealed as what Fielding Mellish, the character played by Woody Allen in the movie “Bananas,” called “a travesty of a mockery of a sham.” But even if former national security adviser John Bolton’s revelations motivate a tiny handful of Republican senators to challenge the order ordained by President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and vote for the semblance of normalcy that allowing a few witnesses to appear would bring, there is still little doubt about how all this is going to end up.

Trump is almost certain to be acquitted by the Senate – not because he is innocent (he is undoubtedly guilty of all he has been charged with and more), but because he has the votes. The senators are reminding us daily that theirs is not the impartial body the Founders imagined. They do not even take their oaths seriously. Nor, for that matter, do those who will reflexively vote to acquit Trump seem to care much about the precedents they will be setting or the damage they will be doing to the institution in which they serve, or to American democracy as a whole.

This raises a question that was heard before the impeachment inquiry began. Was it a mistake to proceed? Can nothing good come out of this process?

I would most emphatically suggest that undertaking the impeachment investigation was far from a mistake. Even with the deck stacked against a just outcome by a GOP leadership that has lost sight of the most basic ideals associated with public service, much good has come out of this process and might come out of it even in the event of an acquittal.

First, the mere pursuit of the facts by the House has both underscored the importance of accountability, and it has, in a very systematic and public way, revealed the facts of this case. Trump, McConnell and the army of parrots spouting White House talking points may repeatedly say otherwise, but the president’s wrongdoing has been made crystal clear, and many of those detailing or corroborating it have been witnesses who are above reproach, objective and distinguished. Many of them are Trump appointees or apolitical career public servants. Today, poll after poll reveals that a substantial majority of Americans believe that the president is guilty of wrongdoing, and about half believe he should be removed from office.

This could fall on deaf ears for Republicans who until this week did not even seem to care that multiple polls also show that two-thirds or more of Americans want to hear from witnesses in this Senate trial. But the judgment of the court of public opinion will matter more to history and, likely, in the election to come, than the verdict in this trial.

The political consequences in this fall’s presidential election will not be not insignificant, either. Trump barely won his last victory, eking it out with fewer than 80,000 votes in three states. Consider the latest polls and the evidence against the president revealed during the impeachment and ask: Might it tip the scales? Might it turn some against Trump who voted for him? Might it lead others not to vote, who would have cast their ballots in his favor?

It seems certain it will have some impact and, contrary to a popular theme before the House impeachment, there will be no backlash in Trump’s favor. There is absolutely zero evidence of a backlash and, indeed with every day of the trial, the numbers have looked worse or unchanged for Trump. He has gotten no bounce from outraged Republicans who want to defend a president’s right to seek foreign intervention on his behalf in an election … again.

Another potential political effect of the trial is that it will reveal Republican senators to care more about party loyalty than justice or the country. Not only is this clear based on the evidence to date, but it is quite likely that an acquittal could be followed by regular instances in which new evidence appears and underscores the Senate’s profound breach of public trust in denying a modicum of justice or seriousness to this undertaking. This in turn might tip the scales against some senators in swing states which could, at least conceivably, return the Senate majority to Democrats this year.

Thanks to the House-led impeachment effort, the truth about the corruption of this president and the Trump years will be much more clear than would have been the case without it, both for voters in November and for posterity.