Trump may not win AZ because of economy
Donald Trump carried the state of Arizona in 2016 by a mere 90,000 votes, enshrining the state as a “winnable state” for Democrats in 2020.
But as political strategist James Carville pointed out in 1992, “it’s (about) the economy, stupid.”
According to a recent Fox News poll, “voters give the economy its best ratings in nearly two decades (55% give a positive rating) — and credit President Trump.” Pair this poll with Fox Business headlines, such as “The Trump economy: President logs big wins with stocks, unemployment and wages,” and Republicans everywhere should consider Arizona a lock in 2020.
But are the “big wins” real for this administration?
First, if you feel confident that the stock market isn’t bloated after witnessing it surge roughly 30% in just three short years as the world’s two largest economies engage in a trade war and while America’s corporate debt load nears $10 trillion – a record 47% of the overall economy – then you reap what you sow.
Either way, considering that only 55% of all Americans even participate in the market in some way, shape or form, perhaps that isn’t the best indicator of an economic “victory” that all Americans, or Arizonans, can truly feel or remain confident in.
Second, the improvement in Arizona’s unemployment rate is deceptive. Yes, the unemployment has dropped from 4.6% from 4.3% from November 2018 to November 2019. But as Josh Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute points out, since 2007, there is “no correlation between the unemployment rate and wage growth.”
Which brings us to said final “victory” for the Trump administration: Arizona’s wage growth.
One of the biggest “victories” for the Trump administration will be to tout the national hourly earnings figure that rose 4.4 percent in 2019 (2.9% nationally).
On the surface, that number appears to be decent growth. But leaning into it a little further, after national inflation and cost-of-living hits, actual wage growth in Arizona rested at just 2.6% (0.1% nationally), or $137 a month ($1,643 a year) based on Arizona’s 2019 median household income of $62,311 for a family of four.
Again, earnings aren’t lowering, so could you call it a victory? Sure. But taken into account a study by Trade Partnership Worldwide that found President Trump’s trade war could cost the average American family of four up to $2,300 a year, then that yearly wage growth of $1,643 just turned to a loss of $657.
If Donald Trump and conservative pundits alike choose to tout the American economy as a “strength” for this administration, then they will have to explain why most Arizonans aren’t feeling it.
With these weaker than expected results heading into the 2020 election, the Democrat who formulates the best economic message on how he or she can reverse a decades-long drought of worker pay failing to keep pace with the U.S.’ net productivity could easily carry Arizona.