Unknowns for 2020 MLB season
Springtime is traditionally a time of optimism in baseball. A new season is right around the corner and every team gets a fresh start in its pursuit of a championship.
But this spring, perhaps more than any other in recent memory, is full of unanswered questions.
Before pitchers and catchers even reported to camp, three teams had already fired their managers as the result of a sign-stealing scandal that goes back to 2017, possibly even further. We have no idea just how much of an impact illegal technology has had on the results, the statistics and the individual performances of the past few seasons.
What’s real and what isn’t? And where does this leave fantasy owners, who rely on those numbers as the basis for their decisions?
That’s how we begin preparation for our 2020 drafts – staring in the face of so much uncertainty.
Astros’ offense
After former Houston Astros pitcher Mike Fiers went public in November with details of the trash can-banging scheme in 2017, MLB launched an investigation into the Astros’ system of stealing opponents’ signs electronically and relaying them to hitters at the plate.
There’s evidence the sign-stealing continued into 2018, both at home and on the road.
And there were persistent rumors the system still existed in some form in 2019. The Astros led the majors last season in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging.
But how much of an advantage did it give Astros hitters? And how might it impact their performances in 2020?
In early drafts, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and George Springer are occasionally slipping a round or two because of doubts they’ll be able to duplicate last year’s numbers.
Yes, Bregman was the only batting title qualifier last season who walked more times (119) than he struck out (83). However, Altuve’s walk rate in 2019 (7.5%) was the lowest it’s been in four seasons and his strikeout rate (15%) was a career high. Springer’s walk and strikeout rates have increased each of the past two seasons.
If the Astros were still gaining an advantage last year, it’s almost impossible to quantify. Even knowing what pitch is coming is no guarantee a player will get a hit. Players’ skill levels change from year to year.
Luck changes from year to year. So sure, go ahead and drop Astros players a few spots if you’re so inclined, but unless you’re drafting five or six of them, any performance decline isn’t going to affect a fantasy team’s overall numbers to any great degree.
Bottom line: If your league gives you a discount on Astros, take it.
Juiced baseballs?
In 2019, major league hitters obliterated the record for home runs in a season. Yes, the prevailing opinion that it’s better to hit the ball in the air might have altered batters’ approaches, the percentage of fly balls has remained virtually the same over the past three seasons.
2017: 35.5% FB%, 13.7 HR/FB 2018: 35.4% FB%, 12.7% HR/FB 2019: 35.7 FB%, 15.3% HR/FB
The difference last year was that 15.3% of those fly balls were home runs – a huge jump from 2018 and significantly higher than in 2017, when the previous single-season home run mark was set.
All signs pointed to changes in the baseball. Yet MLB officials refused to acknowledge there were any changes in the ball’s aerodynamics. When the ball seemed to suddenly stop flying as far in the playoffs, the official explanation of random variance and small sample sizes rang hollow.
But the numbers told a different story. During the regular season, batters hit a home run every 27.5 plate appearances. In the postseason, homers came once every 29.4 plate appearances.
The question hanging over the game is which version of the baseball we’ll see this season.
Steals at a premium
As home runs and strikeouts set records last year, the number of stolen bases continued to decline to a level that hasn’t been seen since 1971. As a result, there’s even less speed to go around in fantasy leagues.
That’s partly the reason Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. is my No. 1 player in this year’s rankings. If not for a hip injury in late September, Acuña had a very good chance to become just the fourth player in MLB history with at least 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases in a season. (He finished with 41 and 37.)
At 22, he has young legs that help him knock Mike Trout out of the top overall spot for the first time since 2014. And while we don’t yet know how the baseball will impact home run hitters, it won’t matter when it comes to players stealing bases.
That’s why you’ll see Trea Turner, Starling Marte, Jonathan Villar, Adalberto Mondesi and Victor Robles pushed up in drafts this year – and sluggers who don’t run, such as Nolan Arenado, J.D. Martinez and Kris Bryant taken later.
Changes of scenery
As is the case every year, players changing teams in the offseason add another level of uncertainty to their expected production. (Unlike last winter, nearly all of the top free agents signed contracts before the start of spring training.)
We can feel pretty confident Gerrit Cole will still be an elite pitcher going from the Astros to the New York Yankees. And Anthony Rendon should enjoy following Trout just as much as he did hitting in front of Juan Soto.
But how will the absence of Mookie Betts impact Red Sox sluggers like Martinez, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts?
And what about possible in-season deals? Arenado and Bryant might fare much differently if they were traded by their current teams.
Everything we don’t know about the coming season might seem a bit overwhelming when staring at a blank draft board. The ability to make adjustments once we start finding those things out will be the key to winning a fantasy title.