2020 NFC record projections
In a typical offseason, I’d release my annual NFL record projections right before training camps begin. But these pandemic-driven times are anything but typical ... so, with the league’s schedule now unveiled, I figured why wait, given none of the 32 teams is likely to change appreciably between now and whenever camps open. they open.
(A note on methodology: Using the most current information, I simply project winners and losers for all 256 regular-season games to arrive at my projections. The outcomes generally allow me to apply tiebreakers, and plenty were needed this year – the first time the league will utilize a 14-team playoff field. I’ll explain later how two of the NFC’s 9-7 teams reached the postseason while two others did not.)
I know you’re dying to be outraged by my predictions, so without further ado (asterisks* denote wild cards) here’s the NFC breakdown ...
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (10-6): Every team that’s changed head coaches is likely to be at some disadvantage given the difficulty of implementing programs and imbuing philosophies virtually this year. But the Cowboys should be able to flatten their learning curve given the retention of coordinator Kellen Moore and an offense that returns largely intact ... assuming franchised QB Dak Prescott reports.
*Philadelphia Eagles (9-7): The reigning NFC East champs are the only team in the division returning the same head coach. Clean bills of health for QB Carson Wentz and the receiving corps plus an upgraded secondary that added CBs Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman are reasons for optimism. Yet red flags remain at safety and left tackle.
Washington Redskins (5-11): New coach Ron Rivera took a measured approach to free agency – novel stuff in these parts – and made the right move by sticking and picking Ohio State DE Chase Young with the No. 2 selection of the draft.
New York Giants (2-14): Rookie coach Joe Judge must not only prove he’s the rare apple that settles near the Bill Belichick tree, he has to navigate a schedule that offers three road games in the first five weeks along with home dates against Pittsburgh and San Francisco. Yikes.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers (10-6): Rookies Jordan Love and AJ Dillon represent a philosophical shift for this franchise, but one unlikely to take root (or help much) in 2020. Not much in the way of free agent reinforcements, either, for a team that fell one game shy of the Super Bowl in 2019.
Minnesota Vikings (9-7): They parted with mainstays Everson Griffen and Stefon Diggs before selecting 15 players, most ever in a seven-round draft. While QB Kirk Cousins and Co. had a playoff breakthrough last season, building on that progress could be a challenge.
Detroit Lions (7-9): They were quietly competitive in 2019 prior to the seasonending back injury to QB Matthew Stafford, who was in the midst of a career year. Rookies Jeff Okudah and D’Andre Swift should provide a bump for a team that was also active in free agency.
Chicago Bears (3-13): The schedule is brutal, and the offensive weaponry supporting the unsettled quarterback position isn’t a whole lot better.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints (12-4): After adding veterans Emmanuel Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins, they aggressively targeted potential impact players (LB Zack Baun, TE Adam Trautman) in the draft in an apparent bid to give QB Drew Brees one more golden opportunity to win the
Tom Brady’s arrival has made them the league’s unexpected darlings, ones boasting a franchise-record five games in prime time.
*Atlanta Falcons (9-7): A team that could have a first-rounder at every position when the offense goes three-wide – RB Todd Gurley, TE Hayden Hurst and WR Laquon Treadwell are recent pickups – quietly went 6-2 in the second half of 2019.
Carolina Panthers (3-13): New coach with limited NFL experience (Matt Rhule). New playbooks on both sides of the ball. New quarterback with six starts in the past four seasons (Teddy Bridgewater). No Luke Kuechly. Three divisional opponents who project as tough outs. Rough ride seems likely.
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers (12-4): Despite the additions of LT Trent Williams and two first-round picks (DT Javon Kinlaw, WR Brandon Aiyuk), the overall talent level seems static – or, said otherwise, sufficient for another championship push. This outfit could be especially imposing if QB Jimmy Garoppolo and/or second-year WR Deebo Samuel take significant steps forward. 48-46 in 2019, could have massive seeding ramifications.
Seattle Seahawks (9-7): Their 11-5 showing in 2019 was rather fluky given they outscored the opposition by a collective 7 points. Seattle must now overcome the apparent loss of DE Jadeveon Clowney, hope its top two running backs (Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny) recover from serious injuries and pray QB Russell Wilson once again masks a subpar offensive line.
Arizona Cardinals (7-9): Their outlook isn’t as sunny as coach Kliff Kingsbury’s crib, but excitement is warranted following the trade for WR DeAndre Hopkins and arrival of rookie LB Isaiah Simmons and OT Josh Jones. RB Kenyan Drake, who established offensive balance after last year’s trade, also returns. Could be tough to overcome the early lineup of games, which includes four of first six on the road.
Los Angeles Rams (6-10): They don’t look good ... literally true in the wake of Wednesday’s uniform reveal. That aside, maybe they won’t miss the production of Gurley and recently dealt WR Brandin Cooks. But what about a still-shaky Oline? Or a linebacker corps devoid of playmakers? Or QB Jared Goff, who took a step back in 2019? Oh, and their first three road games are all 1 p.m. kickoffs on the East Coast.
NFC playoffs
Wild card: (2) 49ers def. (7) Eagles; (6) Falcons def. (3) Packers; (5) Buccaneers def. (4) Cowboys
Divisional: (5) Buccaneers
49ers; (1) Saints def. (6) Falcons
NFC championship game: (1) Saints def. (5) Buccaneers
Super Bowl LV (Tampa)
Saints def. Ravens
def.
(2)