Suns could face tough road in proposed return

The Phoenix Suns aren’t done yet this season. The team that showed flashes of being a playoff contender that was riddled with injuries in their first season under Monty Williams is part of the NBA’s 22team format to resume the 2019-20 season amid the coronavirus pandemic.

With a tentative July 31 target date to begin play in Orlando, the teams will each play eight regular-season games before the playoffs. Jeff Sherman of SuperBook USA, a sports betting service, tweets Phoenix has 10,000/1 odds to win an NBA title. The NBA Finals will conclude no later than Oct. 12.

You don’t need to see those odds to know Phoenix has the slimmest of hopes to win a title, but even returning to play isn’t quite final. The National Basketball Players Association released a statement on Friday saying it will continue to negotiate with NBA on resuming the season.

"The Board of Player Representatives of the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) has approved further negotiations with the NBA on a 22team return to play scenario to restart the 2019-20 NBA season. Various details remain to be negotiated and the acceptance of the scenario would still require that all parties reach agreement on all issues relevant to resuming play."

If the NBA season continues, Phoenix has an outside shot to make the playoffs.

Hypothetically speaking, say Memphis (32-33) maintains the eighth spot in the Western Conference after the eight regular-season games are played.

If the Suns (26-39) could finish 4-4, and have the Grizzlies go 2-6, Phoenix would wind up four games behind Memphis to force a play-in tournament.

That would put Phoenix at 30-43 and Memphis at 34-39.

Then Phoenix would have to go 2-0 against Memphis in the play-in to get the eighth seed; the Grizzlies would have to only beat the Suns once to make the playoffs.

With Suns 2018 fourth overall pick Josh Jackson now in Memphis via trade and the Grizzlies going 3-1 versus Phoenix this season, this would be a spirited matchup.

Obviously, the better Phoenix fares, coupled with the Grizzlies or whoever has the eighth spot doing worse, the better chance the Suns have to make the playoffs.

Before continuing to talk about how Phoenix fits in the NBA’s “competitive format plan,” let’s consider who the Suns may wind up playing in these eight games.

The NBA has yet to officially announce the schedules, but it would seem odd for teams to face opponents with whom they've already finished the season series.

That may very well happen, though. In looking at the remaining 21 teams, Phoenix didn’t finish its season series against 11 of them: Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Clippers, Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans, Utah Jazz, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers

They had two games left against the Mavs before NBA Commissioner Adam Silver put a hold on the season after Jazz all-star Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19.

Phoenix went 6-14 versus those 11 teams this season, posting a winning record only against the 76ers. Here are their records against the Lakers (0-3), Clippers (1-2), Jazz (1-1), Heat (0-1), Thunder (0-2), Rockets (1-2), Mavericks (1-1), Pacers (0-1), 76ers (1-0), Pelicans (1-1), Wizards (0-1)

With that being said, here are three potential schedules for Phoenix broken down into the following categories – toughest, easiest and ideal – based on the idea that the Suns won't play teams they have wrapped up season series with already.

Toughest schedule

Lakers,

Clippers,

Thunder,

Heat,

Rockets, Pacers, Jazz and Mavericks.

Those first two teams are title contenders. The Thunder are a matchup problem.

The Rockets have two closers in James Harden and Russell Westbrook.

The Heat can defend and have shooters. The Pacers and Jazz are solid while the Mavs owe Phoenix for that 29-point beatdown on Jan. 28 in Dallas.

Easiest schedule

Pelicans, Wizards, Mavs, 76ers, Rockets, Jazz, Heat and Pacers.

Let’s see Zion Williamson Deandre Ayton go at it.

The Wizards won in Phoenix, but they went 24-40 for a reason.

Philadelphia is talented, but inconsistent. Phoenix needs to pay back Indiana and Miami for lopsided losses. The Suns battered Houston, Utah and Dallas by an average of 28.3 points the last time they faced them .

Ideal schedule

Another way

and

Lakers, Dallas twice, Heat, Pacers, Wizards, Rockets and Pelicans.

The Lakers are rivals (at least to the Suns).

Before the shutdown, Phoenix had two games left against Dallas. The Suns also had an upcoming sevengame road trip, six against Eastern Conference teams.

It makes sense to play at least three of them.

The Pelicans are the only team in the running for that eighth spot Phoenix had left to play. Houston was the last scheduled road game for the Suns.

Regardless of who Phoenix plays, having the games on a neutral site without fans and with players being tested daily for COVID-19 and having to follow strict safety guidelines brings an unpredictability to all of this.

The NBA had several options on the table to continue the season besides the one chosen.

I don’t know if this one was considered, but the league could’ve combined all the teams into one division, then seed them 1 through 16.

So instead of the Suns being six games out of eighth and final playoff spot, they would’ve been four behind Orlando for the 16th seed.

1 Milwaukee (53-12)

2 Los Angeles Lakers (49-14) 3 Toronto (46-18)

4 Los Angeles Clippers (44-22) 5 Boston (43-21)

6 Denver (43-22)

7 Utah (41-23)

8 Miami (41-24)

9 Oklahoma City (40-24) 10 Houston (40-24)

11 Dallas (40-27)

12 Indiana (39-26)

13 Philadelphia (39-26)

14 Memphis (32-33)

15 Brooklyn (30-34)

16 Orlando (30-35)

17 Portland (29-37)

18 New Orleans (28-36) 19 Sacramento (28-36)

20San Antonio (27-36)

21 Suns (26-39)

22Washington (24-40)