FEMA: No more COVID-19 briefing for Ariz.
State health department relied on federal agency’s disease model
A federal COVID-19 briefing and model of the disease’s spread in Arizona may not be released to the state in the future, one of the federal agencies responsible for creating it said.
The briefing, branded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Health and Human Services assistant secretary for preparedness and response, has been the “most realistic” of all Arizonaspecific models, Dr. Cara Christ, director of the Arizona Department of Health Services, has said.
The report has been dubbed “the FEMA model,” but the agency has “no plan to provide additional modeling to the state of Arizona,” public affairs officer Brandi Richard Thompson said in an email.
There are no plans to provide Arizona any “product” — be it a briefing, report or model — she said.
“We, in coordination with HHS, want to continue to have a dialogue with the state of Arizona on the response to COVID-19,” Thompson said. “We also recognize there are a variety of tools available within the state to provide modeling. At this time, there is no plan to share a product, yet we continue to have conversations with the state and support their efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19.”
That was news to the state health department, which had previously called the model’s projections “reassuring.” The department “has not been notified that Arizona will no longer be receiving the model,” spokeswoman Holly Poynter said in an email.
The decision comes after FEMA refused for weeks to publicly release the report. FEMA also said it doesn’t “provide models” — it helps with analysis, tools and conversation.
“I just don’t want people to continue to be confused about us providing a model. I don’t know anywhere else in the country that we’ve been hung up on this ‘FEMA modeling’ conversation as much as Arizona,” Thompson said.
In April, the agency provided the state health department with a briefing that explicitly calls itself a model. On May 7, a briefing provided by the agencies to the state included recent data, projections and analysis.
The confusion around that one report shows how overlapping federal and state agencies have given conflicting answers on pandemic responses and how communication to the public has suffered.
The public is left swimming in a sea of acronyms to try to get information on COVID-19 that can inform their decisions.
The lack of clear information from public officials has in some cases left the public without critical information during a public health crisis.
Christ said she believes the “model” will continue to be provided by ASPR, the sub-office within HHS.
“It may just be like a technical thing because FEMA may believe that they’re not their models because HHS and ASPR and CDC are the ones that we’ve been working with on it, but FEMA was the one that was emailing it to us,” she said in an interview with The Arizona Republic.
Christ said department staff had a video call with regional HHS staff to discuss a next version of the report last week. The next rendition may include mobility data and county-specific information, Christ said.
“I don’t think they’re planning on not doing it,” she said. “I’m wondering if FEMA is going to be less involved and just allow us to work with our usual partners.”
“I would not anticipate them stopping,” Christ said of HHS.
HHS-ASPR did not clearly answer questions on the matter.
“Modeling is handled by FEMA,” HHS-ASPR spokeswoman Suzanne Sellman wrote in an email. “HHS-ASPR only serves as subject matter experts in support of FEMA. I recommend you work with FEMA directly.
“Our region 9 staff (HHS-ASPR) have not heard from the Arizona State Health Department regarding this request,” Sellman wrote.
Given the circular responses from FEMA and HHSASPR, it is unclear whether the briefing will continue to be provided and what it would look like. The state health department believes it will continue — and it’s especially important because it has guided the state previously.
Which models is the state considering?
The health department has repeatedly said it considers multiple models and real-time data when analyzing COVID-19 trends in Arizona. Various models show significantly different projections for the disease in Arizona.
“While they provide several different projections, we use them to determine potential resource needs and whether our current resources are sufficient,” Poynter, the department spokeswoman, wrote. “We continue to work with our federal partners on all aspects of the COVID-19 response, including models and projections they may provide.”
Previously, the department told a group of university experts to “pause” their modeling work on the disease.
That directive was reversed after public backlash, and the university modelers have continued their work and are briefing the department on updates.
Christ said she expects the next update within the week.
The FEMA and ASPR briefing is based on projection formulas from the Johns Hopkins University and considers current data and mitigation strategies happening in Arizona.
“It has seemed pretty realistic,” Christ said of the model. “Sometimes with the other ones, there’s such variability on them, but these have stayed pretty consistent with what we were seeing. We’ll continue to evaluate all of the ones that we have been moving forward.”
The health department previously said in a blog post that the FEMA briefings were also a “tool the federal government is using when determining resource allocations on a national level.”
For months, the state refused to release the FEMA projections, saying FEMA would not allow them to. FEMA separately told The Republic in May that it would not release the materials created for Arizona, which Thompson said were “not for public distribution and was only provided to support their planning needs.”
The health department eventually released the FEMA model by posting it on their website on May 26. The most recent projections were from May 7. Because of how much had changed since then, with businesses reopening and movement increasing, the projections from May 7 likely don’t capture the current situation on the ground in Arizona.
The May 7 briefing projected hospitalization, critical care and ventilator numbers from May 4 to June 7.
During the period between April 12 and May 7, the report found that hospitalization, ICU and ventilator numbers had slowed their increases, but still remained well above the expected national rates. Arizona was still expected to have enough hospital resources to meet a potential surge.
Christ said when the department receives an updated model, she will release it publicly if allowed.