Democrats being cautious in race
Biden has big lead, but party still haunted by ’16
With four months until the general election, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in polls. While Democrats are gushing about their prospects, they’re not able to shake off their painful memories of 2016, when many Democrats falsely assumed that the Republican Party’s nomination of Trump would ensure Hillary Clinton a victory in the presidential election. Despite trailing in polls, Trump won close races in swing states for a win in the electoral college.
WASHINGTON – Democrats have heard this story before.
Their standard-bearer builds a sizable lead in the race for president against Donald Trump. Everything seems pointed in their direction. Pundits start talking about a Democratic victory like it’s inevitable.
Then it doesn’t happen.
Still licking their wounds four years after Hillary Clinton’s stinging loss, Democrats are grappling with heightened expectations that didn’t seem possible at the start of the year. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden cruised to a double-digit lead nationally weeks ago and has stayed there, as President Donald Trump takes a pounding over his handling of the coronavirus crisis, high unemployment and the fallout from nationwide protests over police brutality.
Not only does Biden lead polls in every battleground state, the former vice president is either ahead or competitive in states that the GOP must carry, including Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Missouri.
But Democrats are not able to shake off their painful memories of 2016, when many incorrectly assumed Trump’s nomination would ensure a Clinton victory in November.
“That memory can’t be erased,” said Luis Heredia, executive director of the Arizona Education Association, the state’s teachers union, and a Democratic National Committee member.
In interviews with DNC members from six battleground states, including state party leaders, each came back to an old campaign cliché: “Take nothing for granted.”
There is a major warning sign, however, for Democrats: Despite Biden’s sizable lead, his supporters are significantly less enthusiastic about him than Trump’s loyalists are of Trump, polling showed.
There are also four months still left before the election, enough time for the race to upend yet again.
Trump’s victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania proved fatal for Clinton in 2016. Winning back the Rust Belt is key for Biden, who holds a polling lead of 6 percentage points or greater in each, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls.
Biden leads Trump nationally 53% to 41%, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, and holds a 9.4% lead in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. At this juncture in 2016, Clinton’s advantage over Trump was smaller, 46% to 40% in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll. In the Real Clear Politics average of polls on July 1, 2016, Clinton led by 4.8%.
Biden downplayed his lead during his first news conference since April following a speech last week in Wilmington, Delaware.
“So far, it remains to be seen. I don’t want to jinx myself. I know the polling data is very good. But I think it’s really early. It’s much too early to make any judgment,” Biden said.