The Arizona Republic

Fastest in U.S.:

- Jen Fifield

The number of cases has been growing more rapidly in Arizona in the past week than any other state in the country.

The number of confirmed cases of the novel coronaviru­s has been growing more rapidly in Arizona in the past week than any other state in the country, and faster than any country in the world, according to a New York Times analysis of Johns Hopkins University data.

When the Times story came out highlighti­ng the jarring statistic on Wednesday,

it took off on social media, bringing even more national attention to the spread of COVID-19 in Arizona.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey’s office quickly pointed out in social media and in a note to reporters on Wednesday that access to testing varies within the United States and globally.

“There is no question that Arizona is experienci­ng a significan­t number of COVID cases,” Patrick Ptak, a spokespers­on for Ducey’s office, wrote in the statement, “but reports that we are the worst in the world lack context and are misleading and inaccurate.”

While there’s no absolute way to compare the spread of the virus in Arizona to other places, a couple of other indicators — also tracked by Johns Hopkins — help give an idea of where Arizona stands.

Taking those indicators into con

sideration, the state doesn’t fare much better.

Rate of coronaviru­s testing varies by state, country

The New York Times’ analysis examined the average daily number of new confirmed coronaviru­s cases in all U.S. states and all countries tracking the data, for the week before the story ran.

Arizona topped the list, with a daily average of about 3,300 new confirmed cases per million residents.

But some places the state was compared with are testing residents at a lower rate.

Here’s the places with the worst outbreaks right now, listed based on the average number of tests being conducted daily, per 1,000 residents:

i Bahrain – 6.4 tests per 1,000 residents. i Louisiana – 3.7. i Tennessee – 2.7 i Florida – 2.2 i Georgia – 2.0 i Arizona – 1.9 i Nevada – 1.8 i South Carolina – 1.8 i Texas – 1.7 i Qatar - 1.7 i Alabama – 1.6 i Mississipp­i – 1.3 i Kazakhstan – 0.9 i Oman – 0.7 i Panama – 0.7 (as of July 4, the latest available)

The internatio­nal data is a seven-day average rate from July 6, tracked by Our World in Data.

The state data is the rate as of July 7, provided by Johns Hopkins.

Arizona also tops U.S. list for percent positive coronaviru­s cases

Another indicator can be used to tell whether a state or country has adequate testing.

It shows that Arizona does not.

That statistic is the percent of tests that come back positive.

If the positivity rate is high, the

World Health Organizati­on says that means there is not enough testing to truly tell the spread of the virus. It may indicate that testing is only available to the sickest in the population.

The WHO recommends that states aim for a positivity rate of under 5% before making decisions about reopening.

Arizona’s rate is the highest in the country, with about one in four tests coming back positive.

Here’s the positivity rate in places with the worst outbreaks: i Oman – 32.2% i Panama – 29% (latest data is from July 4) i Arizona - 26.8% i Mississipp­i – 23.8% i Kazakhstan – 23% i Florida – 18.9% i South Carolina – 16.9% i Qatar – 16.1% i Texas – 14.4% i Alabama – 14.1% i Nevada – 13.7% i Georgia – 13.2% i Louisiana – 8.5% i Tennessee – 7.8% i Bahrain – 4.8%

The internatio­nal data is a 7-day average rate from July 6, tracked by Our World in Data.

The state data is the 7-day average for last week, tracked by Johns Hopkins.

This means countries such as Oman, Panama and Kazakhstan — with a low rate of testing and high positivity rate — could be experienci­ng a faster spread of coronaviru­s than Arizona, but it’s just not showing up in the data.

Ptak’s emailed statement pointed out that Brazil and Peru also have low rates of testing and high positivity rates, which he said suggests that the outbreak is worse there.

“None of this is to diminish the situation in Arizona — it is serious and the state is working to address it, but this reporting is misleading at best,” Ptak said.

The Times story pointed out that Bahrain, Oman and Qatar have large numbers of low-wage migrant workers who are not citizens living in cramped quarters, with subpar social services.

But, somehow, Arizona has found itself on the same list.

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