REST OF NL WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers
106-56
San Diego Padres
70-92 43-17
35-25
They’re the favorites not just to win the NL West but to post the most victories of any team in baseball. The reasoning isn’t complicated: They were a good team last year, they’re bringing back most of their key players and they have added right fielder Mookie Betts, a perennial MVP candidate.
Their lineup is borderline ridiculous, with Betts, Max Muncy, the reigning NL MVP Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner likely occupying the first four spots, in some order. They are also expected to give Gavin Lux the majority of the at-bats at second base; Lux is regarded as one of five best prospects in baseball.
Dodgers pitching staff could be thinner than in previous years, though that is not to suggest any anticipates it to be a major problem. Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias will be asked to carry the load, but with Hyun-Jin Ryu (free-agent departure) and Kenta Maeda (traded) gone and David Price opting out, the Dodgers don’t have miles of depth like they had in the past.
The Padres have been trying for years to break into the realm of contenders only to disappoint time after time. They look, on paper, to be closer than ever, and many seem to be viewing them as a possible surprise team in the division and the wild-card race.
The conversation starts with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who exploded onto the scene last season with a .317/ .379/.590 line in 334 at-bats. His year was cut short by a back injury, but the Padres are banking on a fully healthy campaign and more of the same in the production department.
They have added a number of pieces around him, including outfielders Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham, and they own what many view as the best and deepest bullpen in the National League if not the majors. Closer Kirby Yates, who had a 1.19 ERA in 60 2/3 innings last season, is the best of the bunch.
Colorado Rockies
71-91
The Rockies were in contention through the middle of June before a monumental nosedive caused them to plummet to within one game of the basement in the NL West. They are a similar team to the one that finished with 91 wins and won a wild-card spot in 2018, but they made no notable additions in the offseason after last year’s disappointment.
If the Rockies hope to contend, they will need a slew of things to go right. Perhaps most notable among them is a bounceback season from lefty Kyle Freeland. A down-ballot Cy Young candidate in 2018, Freeland was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season.
Their bullpen includes closer Wade Davis, who is coming off a miserable season, and setup man Scott Oberg but not many other names recognizable to even hardcore fans. The Rockies will need several of those unknown pitchers to emerge as reliable options.
San Francisco Giants
27-33
77-85 37-23
25-35
The Giants are slowly closing the door on their championship core while trying to transition to their next competitive cycle. Gone is Madison Bumgarner, who signed with the Diamondbacks in December. Also gone: catcher Buster Posey, who opted out of the season.
The Giants still have a number of recognizable veterans, including Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt, but they no longer appear to have any standout players. Left fielder Mike Yastrzemski had a nice debut season last year, but at 29 he is not the kind of player around whom a team is likely to build.
Sure, anything is possible in 60 games, but perhaps the more realistic, bestcase outcome for the Giants is for Johnny Cueto to throw well and reestablish trade value either for this year’s deadline or heading into the winter.
Wild-card competitors
The Braves and Nationals each project to win 33 games, according to FanGraphs, so if both clubs play up to expectations one of them figures to be in the hunt for a wild-card spot. The Nationals are without Anthony Rendon but return the same dominant pitching that carried them to a World Series title. The Braves have a talented young core could continue to improve, but they are without Nick Markakis, who opted out, and lefty Cole Hamels (triceps), whom they signed as a free agent in December.
Four of the five teams in this division – the Pirates being the exception – are projected to win 31 or 32 games, making it hard to anticipate who might sneak into the wild-card picture. On paper, at least, the Reds are the most improved team in the division, having added outfielder Nick Castellanos, infielder Mike Moustakas, center fielder Shogo Akiyama and lefty Wade Miley. The Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers will be trying to remain in the hunt like they have been in recent years.