Arizona’s jobless rate increased last month

Arizona’s economy showed some signs of life in September, as the state created 30,200 more jobs last month compared to August, with the private sector accounting for nearly twothirds of that increase.

However, Arizona’s unemployment rate rose to a seasonally adjusted 6.7% in September from 5.9% in August, the state Office of Economic Opportunity reported. As more people are encouraged to look for work and re-enter the labor force, that often pushes up the jobless rate, as appeared to have happened last month. Many of those job seekers still hadn’t found work.

Unemployment nationally is higher than in Arizona, though the U.S. jobless rate dropped to 7.9% last month from 8.4% in August.

George Hammond, an economist at the University of Arizona, said the latest data suggested that “Arizona’s recovery continued in September at a modest pace.” Still, he cautioned not to place too much importance on the estimates for any given month, especially those derived like this report from surveying residents about their job situation.

The monthly numbers appear more “volatile” than normal this year, Hammond said.

Tom Rex, an economist at Arizona State University, said there always has been some skepticism regarding the accuracy of employment estimates at the state, city and county levels, and this uncertainty has been amplified in recent months amid the economy-shutting measures to slow spread of COVID-19.

Arizona has shown large swings in the number of people with jobs, the number without jobs and in other measures, he noted.

“While the variations in employment and unemployment could be real, the bouncing of the labor force figures is troublesome,” Rex said, adding that he didn’t know how to interpret a rebound in the labor force without a significant increase in jobs.

“Many economists feel that the actual unemployment rate is higher than what is being reported,” he said.

But one thing that is clear: Arizona’s overall non-farm employment still hasn’t recovered from the COVID-19 virus and economic-shutting measures to slow the pandemic. About 90,000 fewer Arizonans were employed last month compared to September 2019, when the state’s jobless rate stood at 4.6%.

Arizona’s leisure and hospitality industries remain the epicenter of weakness with net job losses of 56,000 over the past 12 months, though they showed modest improvement in September.