Is state Treasurer Yee’s opposition to Prop. 208 about more than taxes?

With the clock ticking down to Elec- tion Day, Republican state Treasurer Kimberly Yee has emerged as the face of the campaign against Proposition 208, a ballot measure designed to boost education funding by taxing the state’s highest earners.

Her primary forum: television.

Her backers: conservative, pro-business heavyweights.

Her assessment of the potential tax hike: “devastating.”

If you’re having flashbacks to 2012, you’re not alone. That year, then-state Treasurer Doug Ducey rose to prominence leading the opposition campaign against Proposition 204, a measure that would have extended a 1-cent sales tax to bolster education funding.

Appearing in ads and televised forums — with support from conservative groups and business leaders — the relative unknown slammed the proposed extension as economically “devastating.”

Two years later, with Proposition 204 soundly defeated, Ducey was elected governor. And it appears Yee, who’s long been rumored to have gubernatorial aspirations for 2022, is taking a page out of his playbook.

“A key to success in politics is visibility and name ID, and treasurer is not a high-visibility job in the state of Arizona,” GOP strategist Doug Cole said. “Unlike secretary of state or superintendent of public instruction or attorney general, you don’t inherently have a public platform.

“This measure is a godsend to a treasurer, just as Prop. 204 was a godsend to Treasurer Ducey in 2012.”

Strategist: Political ambitions ‘for sure why she’s out there’

Yee, who pulled in the second-highest number of votes among candidates for statewide office after Ducey in 2018, declined interview requests from The Arizona Republic. She instead provided a written statement saying she had “been extremely concerned by the tax increases in Prop. 208 since they were proposed.”

“As Arizona’s Treasurer, the mother of two young children, and coming from a family of small business owners, how we fund education, while maintaining our business friendly environment is something for which I am constantly focused,” she said.

“Dramatically raising taxes on Arizona’s small businesses, especially now, would be a disaster for our state, and I’m proud to be leading the charge protecting the future of Arizona’s economy.”

Despite Proposition 208 supporters’ contention that very few small businesses would actually feel the impact of the increase, Yee has continued to make her argument on Twitter, in a television ad and in a testimonial posted on the “No on 208” campaign’s website — two spots below Ducey’s.

“Keeping your name out there so that you’re able to make a run at something — that’s for sure why she’s out there,” Republican political strategist Tyler Montague said. “And there is no great heir apparent for the governorship at this point.”

Republican Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who also is mentioned among possible 2022 contenders, has drawn the ire of Ducey, the Arizona Board of Regents and prominent members of the business community during his tenure.

Other prospective GOP candidates have cozier relationships with the political establishment but lack the compelling story analysts believe could make Yee — the great-great-granddaughter of a Chinese immigrant and the first Asian American woman elected to the state Legislature — particularly attractive to a party struggling among minority voters.

Montague said he was not aware of “any master plan to position her” for a gubernatorial run. But many of the high-profile groups that joined Ducey in opposing Proposition 204 are standing alongside Yee against Proposition 208, such as the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the National Federation of Independent Business, the Arizona Free Enterprise Club and the Arizona Tax Research Association.

There’s also some overlap among campaign donors, though the anti-208 “Arizonans for Great Schools and a Strong Economy” has already significantly out-raised the anti-204 effort.

According to its most recent filing with the state, the anti-208 campaign has brought in nearly $3.3 million to date. It collected more than $2.6 million of that during the latest reporting period, with $350,000 coming from the Arizona Chamber, a key Ducey ally.

The campaign has spent more than $3 million on TV ad buys, according to its financial reports.

“Just like back in 2012, (Yee) is getting a lot of gross rating points that she doesn’t have to pay for,” Cole said.

What happens if Prop. 208 succeeds?

Some analysts wondered whether Yee attaching her face and name to the anti-208 campaign was the best move ahead of 2022, given public support for the proposition. An October poll of registered Arizona voters conducted by Monmouth University pegged support at 60% and opposition at 34%.

The state’s demographics and political makeup have shifted over the past eight years, transforming what was a solidly red state into a purple battleground. And the teacher walkouts of 2018 thrust education funding into the spotlight for many voters —particularly among independents and Republican women.

“Typically, you want to be championing winning messages,” Montague said. “I don’t know that championing a losing cause would necessarily be a dealbreaker, but you do risk co-branding yourself with something that may not help you.”

Cole disagreed, pointing out that any Republican aspiring to be governor would have to win a GOP primary first. Opposition to taxes consistently resonates there, he said, and only 31% of Republican respondents in the Monmouth poll favored Proposition 208.

“Arizona is pushing more toward purple, but it’s still a Republican state,” he said. “(Being the face of this) may not have the same effect that it did for Treasurer Ducey in 2012, but ultimately, it’s good for her.”

Cole also noted the difference between the sales tax extension proposed in 2012 and the tax on high earners Proposition 208 would impose. Proposition 208 allows for a “very strong talking point on the business side,” he said.

“Saying ‘I’m protecting job creators and small businesses’ is a great talking point from the right for a primary,” he said. “And with enough name ID and a lot of money — like Treasurer Ducey had in 2014 — you can (go on to) overcome opposition from the left.”