Liberals worry about repeat of 2016
The 2016 election lives loudly in everybody right now.
On the Trumpian right, “the polls were wrong before” isn’t merely an observation, it’s a catechism.
And on the anti-Trumpian left, it’s a source of anxiety bordering on panic. It’s making many folks a little crazy.
My friend John Podhoretz, conservative editor of Commentary Magazine, pointed this out to me a few months ago. He lives in New York City, surrounded by Upper West Side liberals prone to flights of jangly rage if you suggest that Joe Biden has the race in the bag.
“Don’t jinx it! That’s what people said in 2016!” they shout.
Since then, it’s only gotten worse. The fear that the country could reelect President Donald Trump after so much muchness these last four years is almost an existential dread, manifesting as quick-tempered outrage at anyone or anything that might upset Biden’s trajectory.
It doesn’t help that Biden is running a defensive campaign, predicated on the assumption that the more Trump is the center of attention, the better it is for Biden. Add in the fact that while Biden has a reassuring personality, he’s not a reassuring campaigner. He’s not a senile basket case, as the Trump campaign foolishly tries to paint him. But he is very much a man showing his age. And even as a young man, Biden had a gift for shoving his foot in his mouth. Put it all together and there’s dancing-on-arazor’s-edge anxiety coloring every news cycle.
For instance, Trump lost the first debate, badly. The reaction from liberals wasn’t, “Hooray, we’ve got two more debates to drive nails into Trump’s electoral coffin!” Rather, the call went out that Biden should refuse to debate Trump again. Some of this was no doubt revulsion at Trump’s debate demeanor. But some of it was clearly rooted in a fear that Biden dodged a bullet. Like Apollo Creed at the end of the first “Rocky” movie, a “there ain’t gonna be no rematch” feeling took over.
This panic isn’t just a phenomenon of elected Democrats and blue checkmark liberal journalists and activists. It’s seeping into the electorate.
Among Trump supporters, there’s a widespread belief that “shy Trump voters” – i.e., people who didn’t want to admit their preference to pollsters – carried the day for Trump in 2016 and will do it again. There’s little evidence for this theory. What looked like shy voters in 2016 were actually a surge of undecided voters breaking late for Trump. That could happen again, but the problem for Trump is that there are far fewer undecideds this time around, and the few that exist seem to be leaning toward Biden.
Anxiety, however, is what is driving liberals to the polls in record numbers. Turnout is on track to dwarf 2016 levels, which makes a repeat of Trump’s narrow Electoral College victory difficult. Indeed, nearly 30 million people have already voted. And where partisan affiliation is reported, Democrats are outvoting Republicans more than 2 to 1. In other words, fear of a 2016 replay may be the reason we won’t have one. So maybe take a Xanax, everybody?