Democrats hold narrow leads in Arizona’s most-watched races
Democrats led in both of Arizona’s most-watched congressional races, but each remained too close to call late Tuesday as vote-counting turned to those whose ballots came in on Election Day.
Democratic challenger Hiral Tipirneni narrowly led incumbent Rep. David Schweikert, R-Ariz., in unofficial results in the race for the Scottsdale-based 6th Congressional District.
Rep. Tom O’Halleran, D-Ariz., also led Republican challenger Tiffany Shedd in the 1st Congressional District that spans northeastern Arizona.
The outcome of both races appears to hinge on those who voted Tuesday or who were among the last to turn in their early ballots.
The outcome of Arizona’s seven other House races was going as expected.
Incumbent Democrats Ruben Gallego, Raúl Grijalva, Ann Kirkpatrick and Greg Stanton were leading handily in their races.
Incumbent Republicans Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Debbie Lesko were also well ahead in theirs.
Schweikert’s district has usually been safe ground for Republicans, but his 11 House ethics violations and the district’s college-educated demographics gave Democrats hope they could win there.
Schweikert has represented the 6th District since it was created ahead of the 2012 elections. He won his first three races there by an average of 27 percentage points.
In 2018, after his ethics investigation opened, Schweikert won by just 10 points.
Tipirneni ran that year as well, in the 8th Congressional District where she lives. She lost the special election to replace former Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz., who resigned mid-term over allegations of sexual misconduct.
Tipirneni also lost a rematch in November to Lesko.
This year Tipirneni was one of the nation’s best-funded challengers running for the House, and Schweikert was one of the worst-funded incumbents in a competitive election. But the fiveterm lawmaker hoped the GOP’s 12 per
centage-point registration advantage would serve as a firewall.
Meanwhile, the close race in the 1st District vote is nothing new. President Donald Trump won the district by 1 percentage point in 2016 and voters there have collectively moved rightward in the years since.
O’Halleran has faced tight contests there in years past against GOP candidates with significant personal or ideological baggage. Shedd, a lawyer and cotton farmer, was a less-controversial opponent.
O’Halleran had a substantial cash advantage over Shedd in their race, and Republicans were slow to invest in that contest, though that changed by the end.
Democrats had a 4-percentage point registration advantage entering Election Day, and they have won all four elections since the district took its current shape.
But that obscures the reality that Democratic margins have shrunk in the 1st District, and, like much of rural America, it is increasingly friendly to Republicans.
Since the August primary, the GOP closed the voter gap there by another 3,000 people, suggesting the Republican brand still has plenty of appeal in that part of the state.
O’Halleran had the closest House race in Arizona in 2018, when he won by nearly 8 points, or 20,000 votes.
Among the other races, perhaps Lesko’s race in the northwest Valley’s 8th District was the most compelling.
In her first two elections, Lesko won by surprisingly narrow margins in both her races in 2018 given the lopsided registration advantage Republicans have there.
But Lesko was comfortably ahead of Democrat Michael Muscato in her bid for a second full term in the House.
Kirkpatrick was also in position to win a second term in her Tucson-based 2nd Congressional District over Republican Brandon Martin. She won three terms representing the 1st District before moving to Tucson.
Her race seems to cement the leftward shift for voters in a part of the state that provided a pair of epic finishes in 2012 and 2014.
Stanton was far ahead in his bid for a second term over Republican Dave Giles in the 9th Congressional District that runs through north-central Phoenix down to Chandler. Once again, that district, originally seen as competitive when it was created in 2012, seemed headed for another Democratic win.
The other four House races involved heavily partisan-leaning districts.
In the 5th Congressional District that covers the southeast Valley, Biggs was leading Democrat Joan Greene for the second election in a row in his bid for a third term in the House.
Gosar defeated Democrat Delina DiSanto in the 4th Congressional District that spans northwestern Arizona and is the state’s most-Republicanleaning.
Gallego won his race for a fourth term over Republican Josh Barnett in the 7th Congressional District that includes downtown Phoenix and the southwest Valley. It is the state’s most-Democratic-leaning district.
Grijalva, who is the dean of Arizona’s congressional delegation, was headed for a 10th term over Republican Daniel Wood in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes part of Tucson, west to Yuma.
The Associated Press called the races for Biggs, Gosar, Gallego, Grijalva and Lesko on Tuesday night.