Who will control AZ Legislature?
Arizona Republicans widened their leads in several key legislative races Wednesday, diminishing the hopes of Democrats who had aimed to win majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives for the first time in decades.
Democrats would need to win three seats to cinch a majority in the state Senate and two seats for a majority in the state House but while they looked poised to win a Senate seat, they were falling short Wednesday of claiming control of the chamber.
Teacher and Democratic Senate nominee Christine Marsh still maintained lead over Republican Sen. Kate Brophy McGee in their Paradise Valley and North Phoenix district.
Meanwhile, Democrat Judy Schwiebert continued to lead in the race for a state House seat in the Glendale and Peoria area, potentially ousting Republican Rep. Anthony Kern.
But Republican House nominee Joel John looked positioned to defeat Democratic Rep. Geraldine Peten to win a seat in District 4, which extends from Yuma to Tucson and the West Valley.
And while Democrats saw early leads in other races around the state on Tuesday night, those leads evaporated as more votes were counted.
“It was a great day for Democrats, unfortunately it doesn’t appear to have materialized at the Legislative level,” Sen. Rebecca Rios, D-Phoenix, said of Election Day.
Rios said the results – potentially a slightly smaller and very narrow majority for Republicans – should impress on legislators the need to work together.
Voters are not giving a large mandate to either party, she said.
“We’re about as close to even as we could be,” Rios added.
Rep. T.J. Shope, a Republican from Coolidge who is heading to the state Senate next session, said the results so far disproved the inevitability of a Democratic victory in the Legislature that many had anticipated and spent millions to bring about.
“I can’t help but be excited,” Shope said. “For two years, we have heard the House falling was a foregone conclusion. It wasn’t a matter of whether Republicans would lose the House it was a matter of how many seats Republicans would have in the minority.”
But he anticipated this election would only set up another campaign season of expensive races for control of the Legislature.
Maricopa County election officials said Wednesday night that about 338,000 ballots remain to be counted on top of an estimated 17,334 provisional ballots.
These ballots could still impact some of the tightest races for seats in the Legislature.
Whatever happens, the Senate is likely to have a different dynamic with the defeat of Brophy McGee and of Sen. Heather Carter, who lost her party’s nomination for re-election in the Republican primary. Both were relatively moderate members. Meanwhile, House Minority Leader David Bradley, D-Tucson, is leaving. He had developed a good working relationship with Senate President Karen Fann. And several conservatives from the state House have won
seats in the Senate, such as Majority Leader Warren Petersen, R-Gilbert, and Rep. Kelly Townsend, R-Mesa.
Rios aimed to lead her caucus in the next legislative session as Senate president but said Wednesday she would seek to serve as minority leader.
Senate Republicans met Wednesday and did not announce any changes in leadership.
House Democrats plan to convene next week to discuss their leadership and House Republicans are scheduled to meet Thursday.
Here are a few of the races to watch as ballots are counted:
District 28
Sen. Kate Brophy McGee, R-Phoenix, has represented this district spanning Paradise Valley and parts of North Phoenix for nearly a decade. But she only won re-election in 2018 by 267 votes — a reflection of the increasing difficulties Republicans have faced in some relatively affluent suburbs as Trump has turned off many moderates and shifted the party’s priorities.
Initial results showed her trailing Democratic nominee and longtime teacher Christine Marsh, who is running against the incumbent senator again after that nearly successful 2018 campaign.
Democrats have made inroads in this district, winning both House seats in recent years. But Brophy McGee has been known for her independence, though. She has supported LGBT rights, for example, and joined Democrats along with only a few other Republicans in voting to end the session this year amid mounting concerns about COVID-19. The question is whether that can win over enough voters to hang on to this district as leans it increasingly Democratic.
District 17
Sen. J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler, is at the center of this very expensive race as he seeks re-election in this district that includes Chandler and part of Gilbert.
Democratic groups have spent more than $1.3 million campaigning against him.
And it has turned into a tight race with his challenger, Democrat and businessman A.J. Kurdoglu.
Mesnard took the lead in early results early Wednesday morning.
Even though Republicans outnumber Democrats in the district, Democrats have made inroads as the area has boomed. State Rep. Jennifer Pawlik, DChandler, won a seat there in 2018. She faces Republican Rep. Jeff Weninger, RChandler, and nominee Liz Harris.
District 6
This district spans from Flagstaff to Jerome, Snowflake and Payson and all three of its seats are up in the air.
Four-time failed congressional candidate and retired Air Force Col. Wendy Rogers, of Flagstaff, ousted Sen. Sylvia Allen, R-Snowflake, in the primary to win the Republican nomination and has been a fundraising juggernaut, bringing in more than $900,000.
But Democrats see an opportunity here. Rogers ran to the right of the famously conservative Allen and Allen only won re-election by a couple of percentage points in 2018. Democrats have nominated nurse and veteran Felicia French, of Pine, who has been campaigning on issues like expanding the state's Medicaid program and further improving teacher pay.
Rogers pulled well ahead in early results Wednesday morning.
For the House, Republican Rep. Walt Blackman, R-Snowflake, is running for re-election alongside Brenda Barton, of Payson.
Democrats have nominated Flagstaff Mayor Coral Evans and Coconino County Supervisor Art Babbott is running as an independent.
Evans trailed a few hundred votes behind Barton as of Wednesday night, and Blackman led the group.
It has all made for an eclectic race. Blackman is a die-hard conservative, for example, but is also a leading voice on criminal justice reform in the Legislature.
Babbott is a former Democrat who left the party in 2016 and is supportive of the sort of election reforms that many in the party oppose, such as easier ballot access for independents and rankedchoice voting.
While Republicans hold all of the district’s seats currently, it is worth watching after some tight races in 2018.
The top three candidates for House that year ended up within a percentage point of one another.
District 20
This district extends from Moon Valley in Phoenix to North 67th Avenue in Glendale and is currently represented in the Legislature entirely by Republicans. But Democrats got within a couple of percentage points of winning seats here in 2018.
This year, retired teacher Judy Schwiebert is challenging incumbent Reps. Anthony Kern and Shawnna Bolick.
Schwiebert maintained her lead Wednesday, followed by Bolick and Kern.
Democratic nominee and businessman Doug Ervin trailed Republican state Sen. Paul Boyer Wednesday, after jumping out to an early lead.
Democrats have also targeted Boyer in past years but he is another lawmaker known — like Brophy McGee — for his willingness to break from party leadership. Boyer had represented the district in the House and was elected to the Senate in 2018 (beating Ervin) and went on to help hold up the budget in 2019 as part of his campaign for legislation helping firefighters with cancer claims.
As much as it may have rankled Senate leadership, they ended up needing him this year to help maintain a Republican majority and ads sought to win crossover support.
District 21
Democrats have had high hopes for Kathy Knecht, a former Peoria Unified School District board member who ran unsuccessfully for state Senate here as an independent in 2018 and got about 47% of the vote.
Knecht ran for House as a Democrat this time against fellow Peoria school board member Beverly Pingerelli and incumbent Rep. Kevin Payne.
The district leans Republican. About 13,000 more voters here are registered as Republicans than Democrats.
But outside groups spent more than $400,000 backing Knecht and spent about $730,000 against Payne, who was first elected in 2016.
The focus on the district seemed to be paying off. Knecht trailed closely behind Payne and Pingerelli on Wednesday morning but Payne expanded his lead Wednesday evening.
District 4
Spanning from Yuma to Tucson and the West Valley, this district looked like a rare opportunity this year for Republicans to win a seat in the House.
The last time the party ran a candidate for state House, they got within a few hundred votes of winning.
Joel John, a former teacher who runs an irrigation company, won the Republican nomination and outside groups started churning out attacks against one of the district’s Democratic incumbents, Geraldine Peten.
Peten, of Goodyear, has spent much of the year quarantining amid the pandemic (four legislators are known to have tested positive this year) and she lagged behind Joel in fundraising over the summer.
Meanwhile, John racked up support in the West Valley, taking a lead over Peten.