Arizona politics 3.0 signals shift in state
Democrats, powered by copper, controlled Arizona politics from statehood to the 1952 election of Barry Goldwater. The Republicans, powered by real estate, dominated for the seven decades since.
Welcome to Arizona politics 3.0. Arizona voted blue in the presidential race. It now has two Democratic U.S. senators. There is rough parity among Republicans and Democrats in the congressional delegation and in statewide offices and state legislative seats. Voters even passed Democratic initiatives on both marijuana and education funding.
How did this happen? There are three main reasons.
Much has been written about Arizona’s changing – and bluer – demographics; arriving expats from California, the growth of the Latinx voting population and of college-educated suburban women.
Second, this potential was skillfully captured in stunningly effective, multiyear Democratic voter registration, persuasion and record turnout efforts.
Third was candidate messaging strategies.
Joe Biden was uniquely viable here. He is a bipartisan collaborator and was a genuine friend of John McCain. That and Cindy McCain’s ad for him gave Republicans permission to cross over. Similarly, his LDS support – and Republican former Sen. Jeff Flake’s endorsement – was drawn to Biden’s unique character strengths.
Having – and losing – a son who served our nation in uniform gave military members and veterans reassurance, just as Biden’s faith did for many who share his values within a faith tradition.
Similarly, Mark Kelly is a veteran and astronaut, a moderate in ideology and temperament, who ran on character, service and collaboration. That – aided by Martha McSally’s decision to run a partisan race – earned him GOP crossover votes.
Democratic candidates pragmatically addressed issues that animate Arizona voters: health care, education and economic opportunity. Arizonans reward leaders – of both parties – who take on problems rather than each other.
As a result, like the Sinema, Hobbs and Hoffman successes in 2018, Biden and Kelly won twice as many Republi
selection and can votes as they lost Democratic votes and carried independents by large margins.
The takeaways?
● There are swing voters in Arizona.
● Center-left candidates can turn out the Democratic base.
● As independents state.
● And when either party forfeits the center, it is available to the other – if they are positioned to capture it.
The other big election 2020 change? Arizona issues will get more traction on the national stage.
Consider how familiar presidential candidates are with farm subsidies in Iowa, the car manufacturing industry in Michigan, trade policy in Ohio or with off-shore oil drilling when they campaign in Florida.
In the Clinton White House I witnessed how the issues of swing states were treated differently. The White House was more engaged and solutions were more urgent. A swing state governor’s visit was red carpet time. Every White House does likewise.
Candidates often visit, dote on and deepen their knowledge about swing states, which emboldens them to act confidently on their most pressing issues.
Arizona joining their ranks will be an
go, so goes
the opportunity to drive attention to issues that are essential to our success as a state.
● How will we address the border beyond security and galvanize our economic relationship with Mexico to fully leverage Arizona as a trade route?
● How can the federal government encourage a sustainable multistate compact for the use of the Colorado River?
● How can Arizona use our rich soil to grow biofuels in a clean energy economy?
● How will the Bureau of Indian Affairs fully embrace its obligations to our tribal communities?
When every vote counts, national candidates will get steeped in – and will produce on – Arizona issues.
2020 was a change election for Arizona, and political power is now permanently distributed differently and more broadly.
That power – in the hands of both parties – can more effectively be used to build Arizona’s future.