Analyzing child-abuse hotline call data

As expected, calls to the state’s childabuse hotline dropped once the coronavirus pandemic hit and schools switched to online learning, meaning children were not seen daily by their teachers.

But the resulting impact on Arizona children’s well-being is not clear.

● Since March, there have been monthly fluctuations in the number of kids placed in foster care, with recent months showing a return to pre-pandemic levels.

● Department of Child Safety workers are investigating about the same share of hotline calls — around 55% of the overall total — as before the pandemic hit.

● But the share of those investigations that result in a child being removed from his home has increased every month since March.

DCS Director Mike Faust said he can’t draw any conclusions from these statistics, at least not yet.

“I’m trying to be super-mindful and not guess because I don’t want to sound alarm bells early, I don’t want to overstate things,” he said last month. “We’re just trying to state the facts for what the facts are and let folks reach

their own conclusions.”

Others say the numbers suggest the more-severe cases of abuse are still getting reported and addressed.

The unanswered question revolves around the calls that aren’t coming in. Do they signal that children are in harm’s way but no one is seeing it? Are child-welfare workers missing signs of neglect that could fester into larger problems? Or do they suggest families are faring OK during the pandemic?

Molly Dunn at the Arizona Children’s Action Alliance said she’s less worried about the drop in calls than she was in the spring.

“We don’t know what will happen when things get back to normal,” said Dunn, director of child welfare and juvenile justice for the alliance. “But when I look at the research, I’m less concerned. The real threat is the economic stress that families are under.”

Programs that can help families deal with income and job loss brought on by the pandemic would go a long way toward keeping families together, she said.

This could eliminate the need to call DCS.

“We don’t need to redouble (efforts) to detect child maltreatment, we need to redouble efforts to reduce the economic stressors that could lead to abuse or neglect,” Dunn said.

Programs such as eviction protection, improved unemployment benefits and help with necessities, such as food, could go a long way to reducing that stress, she said.

Worries about the reduction in “eyes on the child” due to teachers not having physical contact with kids might be overblown, Dunn said.

She pointed to a study of mandatory reporters (which includes educators, medical personnel and law enforcement) that showed while they called childabuse hotlines, their expectation was not necessarily that children should be removed from their homes. Instead, they were looking for a place to get help to the family and child-welfare agencies are often the onestop-shop.

More robust data needed

Like others interviewed for this story, Fred Wulczyn said more information is needed to understand what the numbers mean.

“We don’t know enough about this as we should,” said Wulczyn, director of the Center for State Child Welfare Data at Chapin Hall, a center that focuses on child and family research at the University of Chicago. Where, he asked is the Johns Hopkins data dashboard for child welfare?

If states had more robust data such as they have for COVID-19, it might shed more light on the situation, he said.

The drop in hotline calls doesn’t necessarily portend bad things when routines return to normal and more mandatory reporters are seeing children, he said. But child-welfare agencies should be prepared to deal with undetected cases of child maltreatment.

If more were known about what agencies have available at any given time to serve families, it could eliminate a lot of uncertainty about what may happen if hotlines start ringing more, Wulczyn said.

For example, the decision to place a child in foster care depends on how many beds are available. But beyond a raw number, agencies should know more about those beds: Are they in homes that would accept a teenager? Are there limits on how many children a foster home would accept, which could affect the ability to keep siblings together? Are these experienced foster parents or newcomers to the system?

Likewise, agencies need to be better attuned to what services they can offer families so they don’t have to be separated from their kids.

Hotline calls from mandatory reporters such as teachers, he said, are a “vital link” to what is known about children.

At child advocacy centers, which see the more severe cases of physical and sexual abuse, calls are down both nationally and statewide. But Arizona has seen a steeper dropoff in such reports: down 24% for the first half of 2020, compared to a 17% decline nationally, according to the National Children’s Alliance.

Blame it on the isolation caused by the pandemic, said Blake Warenik, communications director for the alliance.

“People aren’t seeing the early signs of trouble, so problems escalate and only get noticed when things are bad,” he said.

Marie Fordney, executive director of the Southern Arizona Children’s Advocacy Center, echoes that explanation.

“I think kids are bored and restless and families are stressed, financially and emotionally,” she said. “There are a lot of families that have lost jobs, or are relying on one job. That always causes relationship stress.”

Her center, one of 15 in Arizona, saw a dramatic drop in referrals in the early days of the pandemic, although the numbers are climbing back to normal levels, she said. But the referrals that are coming in are more severe.

“There was a little boy whose stepdad tried to strangle him,” she said of one case that was referred to her center. “He had visible marks on his neck, bruising and red marks on his neck from this violence. In his word, he said his stepdad tried to break him.”

When to call the hotline

Severe cases of physical or sexual abuse come to DCS primarily through police agencies. Calls from law enforcement have risen as reports from teachers and other educators have dropped, DCS director Faust said.

Educators historically have been the biggest group of mandatory reporters to the hotline, after law enforcement. As of 2020, they ranked fifth or sixth, he said.

However, overall calls are starting to come back in line with historical trends, he said, something the Children’s Action Alliance has also noted.

Faust said a more rigorous examination of their numbers is needed before he can pinpoint any new practices DCS should do to address smaller problems that could grow into more serious matters.

“I’m very clear not to guess, but we have not reached any firm conclusions as to any leading indicators that we could go target for preventive type work,” he said.

Hotline reports generally hinge on physical health, but it’s important to consider the social and emotional issues a child might be dealing with, he said.

People should not shy away from calling the hotline, 1-888-SOS-CHILD, he said. About 5% of calls result in a child being removed.

“I consistently say the same thing, and I have and I will forevermore: If you believe a child is being abused or neglected, call the hotline,” Faust said.

“I don’t want them (the community) to have to decide. If you think abuse or neglect is occurring, call. We’re going to go out, we’re going to respond, we’re going to assess the situation.”

If a child doesn’t need to be removed, DCS can offer services instead, he said.

Fordney said DCS is hesitant to pull a child out of his home.

“When I talk to DCS, they are not interested in removing children right now,” she said. The message, she added, is to keep the child in their normal environment because it’s better for their long-term outcomes.