Pitcher workloads present a conundrum for D-Backs
Most years, when a pitcher experiences a velocity drop or a decline in spin rate or a change in his arm angle, it would be viewed as either part of the ebbs and flows of a season or as something correctable, something that could be addressed through coaching.
This year, however, clubs will wonder something else: After a two-month season in which no pitcher in the majors started more than 13 games or threw more than 80-something innings, teams will have to contemplate whether workload issues are at play — and, more dauntingly, whether pushing forward might be putting pitchers at risk.
“This is kind of uncharted territory,” Diamondbacks pitching coach Matt Herges said. “I think, like everybody, we don’t know what it looks like because we’ve never been here. We’ve never been in this situation. We’re definitely always going to err on the side of caution.”
Keeping pitchers healthy has been a sort of holy grail for baseball teams for decades. They have yet to find foolproof solutions, but there are certain protocols that tend to be viewed as best-practice procedures. Innings progressions are one of them.
Clubs tend to try to build up their pitchers — particularly their younger ones — on a year-to-year basis, increasing their workloads by about 30 innings every season until they reach the 180inning range. They also tend to be more conservative with pitchers who missed large chunks of the previous season due to injury.
So having a year in which the highest rung of major league pitchers threw about one-third of their typical innings totals — and in which many minor lea
guers didn’t log a single competitive inning — throws a wrench into the upcoming season.
The Diamondbacks say they are going into the year cautiously but aren’t going to impose prohibitive restrictions from the outset. They aren’t ruling out the possibility that one or more of their starters could log 200 innings. Instead, they’re taking more of a wait-and-see approach.
They will keep a close eye on the information at their disposal. They will track velocities. They will monitor spin rates. They will make sure pitchers’ mechanics remain consistent. They will constantly ask their pitchers how their arms and bodies feel.
They do these things anyway; what is unclear is what they will do if the data they see or the answers they receive aren’t satisfactory.
“I think the question is, are you going to proactively address something from a workload standpoint that you wouldn’t have done in the past?” Diamondbacks General Manager Mike Hazen said. “That’s the thing I can’t answer right now.”
Hazen sees the biggest challenge as trying to differentiate between indicators of fatigue or injury and those that are correctable from a fundamental perspective. The team doesn’t want to impose limitations for a pitcher who isn’t actually worn down but rather needs to make a mechanical adjustment.
Hazen sees this more as an issue for the second half of the season, at which point, he acknowledges, the club could go in any number of directions depending on the situation. Perhaps the Diamondbacks have a tiring pitcher skip a start. Perhaps they limit his next start to 60 pitches. Perhaps they have him stop throwing side sessions between outings.
“We’re going to monitor everybody the same,” Hazen said. “I’m trying not to superimpose pre-existing thoughts that it’s all bad, that it needs to be more conservative. I feel like sometimes when we have tried to protect pitchers being conservative that hasn’t necessarily proved to be fruitful, either.”
Herges noted an example of this from his time as a coach in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ system. In 2014, he had lefty Julio Urias on his team in High-A. The Dodgers implemented all sorts of conservative measures to try to keep the then 17-year-old Urias healthy.
“We were really careful,” Herges said. “You still can never tell: He ended up blowing his arm out. … Again, we’ll err on the side of caution. But you don’t know what’s going to happen. You don’t know when that breaking point is going to happen. Some guys stay healthy their whole careers. Some guys have a tendency to get banged up more frequently.”
The Diamondbacks might have one thing working in their favor: They have a rotation filled with fairly established pitchers. Madison Bumgarner has thrown 200 innings seven times in his career.
Merrill Kelly, 32, was a workhorse during his time in Korea. Caleb Smith and Luke Weaver have had their limitations but at age 29 and 27, respectively, neither is inexperienced.
Right-hander Zac Gallen, at 25, is the youngest starter in the rotation, but he threw 171 1/3 innings between the majors and minors in 2019.
“I think (with veterans) there’s more rote physical memorization of mechanics, arm slot, preparation leading up to the season, physical preparation, being ready for all of that having done it so many times over the course of so many years,” Hazen said.
The Diamondbacks also like the depth they have in the rotation. Beyond the first five, the team has right-handers Corbin Martin, Taylor Clarke, Taylor Widener, Jon Duplantier, Riley Smith and lefty Alex Young, among others. Perhaps
they won’t all be healthy or pitching well, but more than likely the team should have some options at its disposal if it needs them.
Herges said the topic of innings totals is not one he has broached with his pitchers, saying he preferred them to have one less thing to worry about. He knows that possible second-half limitations might elicit pushback from pitchers, but he hopes the staff recognizes the organization has the best intentions in mind.
“There is trust that’s being built here,” Herges said. “That’s one of (manager Torey Lovullo’s) main things: We want to build an environment where they trust us. I think we do a good job of that. When we get to that point, hopefully they’ll be receptive to our thoughts and the direction we want to go.
“Their health is the most important thing on our minds. A healthy player is a better player for us. It doesn’t help anybody if we’re pushing them to the point where they’re going to break.”