Soaring Spieth not the favorite
Golfers who are in a slump rarely find lightning in a bottle, suddenly contending after missing cuts, but Jordan Spieth found something on the way to Arizona this winter.
After missing the cut in three of his previous six tournaments before the Waste Management Phoenix Open in early February, he was in the mix on Sunday and tied for fourth.
Spieth backed up that performance at TPC Scottsdale with T-3 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a T-15 at the Genesis Invitational and a T-4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Suddenly, after a three-year slump, it felt like the old Jordan was back.
Then, on Sunday, he won the Valero Texas Open, notching his first title since the 2017 British Open at Royal Birkdale.
Now, heading to the Masters fresh off his first win in more than three years, how close is today’s Jordan Spieth to being the player who won at Augusta National, then won the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay two months later?
Spieth’s performance in San Antonio last week, from a statistical standpoint, was certainly reminiscent of his level of play from 2015 and 2016. He finished third in strokes gained tee-to-green and sixth in strokes gained putting, a lethal combination for his competition.
However, heading into last week’s Valero Texas Open there was still a big difference between today’s Jordan Spieth and peak Jordan Spieth.
Strokes gained total is the average of how much better (or worse) a player performed than the field average over 18 holes, measured in strokes.
So, for example, if a player has a strokes gained total average of 0.5, he would typically shoot a half-shot better than the field average over an 18-hole round. That may not seem like much, but over 72 holes, that’s two shots, and that can make a big difference.
In 2015, Spieth ranked second in strokes gained total with an average of 2.154, a massive number that means he was more than two shots better than the average player over 18 holes that season. He ranked in the top five in the stats the next two seasons, but his average dropped in 2018 and again in 2019. Last season Spieth ranked 99th in strokes gained total and was barely above the Tour average.
Through the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, Spieth’s strokes gained total average for 2021 was up to 0.768 (45th on the PGA Tour).
Obviously, he’s playing at a higher level than last season, but he is still almost one-and-a-half-shots worse than he was at the end of his Masters-winning 2015 season.
So where is Spieth losing those shots? His putting struggled in 2019 and 2020, and his ballstriking numbers, reflected in strokes gained approach the green, also dipped significantly after 2017.
This season, those numbers are both improving.
Winning on the PGA Tour is hard, especially against power players like Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm.
But Spieth is certainly trending in the right direction and starting to blend improved ballstriking and better putting.
Now, after a win, he should have extra confidence.
“This sport can take you a lot of different directions,” Spieth said on Sunday evening after being asked about the climb back from his slump. “So I think it’s just most important to embrace when I have moments like this and just really appreciate them. (I need to) keep my head down, keep the process that I’m doing. Obviously, things are starting to work without feeling like I quite have it all, so that’s a really good sign. (I’ll) take some confidence into next week as well.”
The stats say Spieth’s comeback has a way to go, but that doesn’t mean he can’t contend this week at Augusta National.