A census undercount will hurt us, and that’s not the worst of it
It wasn’t Gov. Ducey’s fault, but his mistake that will cost our state $1.26b — and likely a lot more
Doug Ducey made a mistake that’s going to cost everyone in the state for the next decade – at least.
A few years ago, tagging behind Donald Trump, Arizona’s Republican governor agreed that the census should ask whether respondents are U.S. citizens, ignoring the obvious chilling effect such a move could have on response rates in Latino communities.
Then, last year, he stood idly by rather than using his influence or authority in an attempt to extend the deadline for state residents to file cen
sus responses, despite a raging pandemic that was slicing through Black, Hispanic and Native communities, making it hard for volunteers to do their jobs.
Taken together, Ducey undercut Arizona’s national influence and its ability to improve education, digital infrastructure, health care and a fleet of other badly needed services in a fast-growing state.
It’s going to hit minority communities the hardest.
The U.S. Census Bureau released numbers this week that showed Arizona didn’t turn in enough surveys to gain a seat in the U.S. House, a revelation that stunned demographers and political observers.
Arizona has the residents, but not the responses.
All indications and predictions showed that Arizona grew fast enough to have joined Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas in gaining a congressional seat.
It’s worth mentioning that four of those six states have governors from the Democratic Party, which favors expanding opportunities to get accurate counts.
Arizona was short of gaining a congressional seat by about 80,000 residents.
That number could have and should have easily been offset by a higher response rate.
Instead of making it easier to participate, the federal Census Bureau – which ultimately answered to Trump, a president with political motivation to suppress many of the benefits the count would provide – the department moved up the filing deadline by four weeks.
It was galling, coming in August 2020, when the nation was still gripped by pandemic fear. Minorities showed higher rates of COVID-19 illness and death, because they were more likely to have been front-line or essential workers, compared with their white peers. They were also more likely to live in multigenerational households.
This census could have helped those communities with money to improve schools or internet access. More importantly, an accurate count could have led to more favorable redistricting boundaries.
But Trump and his allies, which in this case include Ducey, took positions that have served to prevent infrastructure improvements and political influence in communities that aren’t inclined to support conservative candidates.
It gives the impression that Republicans would rather change the rules than improve lives, which is what government is supposed to do.
The state ended up showing 7.16 million residents.
Census Bureau estimates suggest it should have been about 7.3 million – a 140,000-response discrepancy.
In fairness, Ducey wasn’t responsible for questions added to the census. He wasn’t responsible for the decision to move up the filing deadline, either. But he was inconsistent.
When it came to adding a citizenship question, he was vocal and public in his support.
When it came to adding time to get a good count, he said “we have to play within the rules the federal government sets.”
The Governor’s Office suggested that every person missed in the census count would cost the state nearly $900 annually.
If that’s true, then an undercount of 140,000 people would cost the state $1.26 billion over the next 10 years. And that’s just in dollars. Imagine how that plays out in lost opportunity. That’s a generation of students who can’t compete. It’s a generation of pedestrians on unsafe sidewalks. A generation of entrepreneurs who can’t connect to high-speed internet.
The undercount isn’t Ducey’s fault. But it’s clear what his preferences were.
He was tagging behind Trump on decisions that are most likely to affect minority communities.
It’s a mistake that’s going to cost everyone in the state for the next decade – at least.