Outlook: Holiday sales could set records
NRF: Prices, shortages won’t deter shoppers
NEW YORK – The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, expects that holiday sales gain could shatter last year’s recordbreaking season even as a snarled global supply chain slows the flow of goods and results in higher prices for a broad range of items.
The trade group said Wednesday that it predicts that sales for the November and December period will grow between 8.5% and 10.5% to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion. Holiday sales increased 8.2% in 2020 compared with
the previous year when shoppers, locked down during the early part of the pandemic, splurged on pajamas and home goods, mostly online.
The group expects online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, to increase between 11% and 15% to between $218.3 billion and $226.2 billion driven by online sales.
The numbers exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants. Holiday sales have averaged gains of 4.4% over the past five years, according to the group.
The forecast considers a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather.
“There is considerable momentum heading into the holiday shopping season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Consumers are in a very favorable position going into the last few months of the year as income is rising and household balance sheets have never been stronger.”
Shay also noted during a call with the media on Wednesday that the lifting of U.S. restrictions on international visitors from more than 30 countries early next next month should also give a jolt to retailers this holiday season.
As they did last year, consumers are shopping early for the holiday season for fear of not getting what they want. But Shay said that retailers are doing a good job keeping inventory on shelves, though there will be gaps in some categories. Still, he has seen shoppers adjust by switching to other brands and items if they can’t find their top choice.
“Consumer will not be deterred,” said Shay. “They will be out shopping for the holidays, and they won’t go home empty-handed.”