Quick action urged to ease climate change
Experts lay out need for political action in report
The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released new conclusions this week about the warming planet that move past recent reports on how scientists know humans are largely to blame and what the changes will mean, and on to outlining what can be done now to minimize, or mitigate, global consequences.
The report is the 14th contribution from the IPCC’s Working Group III, a network of 278 scientists from 65 countries who have been working since 2017 to evaluate options for limiting climate change by preventing or capturing greenhouse gas emissions.
The previous report from the panel, released Feb. 28 by its Working Group II, focused on impacts and vulnerabilities of natural and socio-economic systems. The IPCC’s current sixth cycle of expert reports began in August 2021, when Working Group I summarized the latest science on the physical basis and causes of climate change.
To compile the 3,600-page document , authors reviewed more than 18,000 scientific papers and considered more than 60,000 comments from governments and experts. Their recommendations stem from one central conclusion, stated during Monday’s news conference by Jim Skea, the working group’s co-chair and a professor of sustainable energy at Imperial College London:
“We are definitely not on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”
Limiting the average increase in temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) has been an international goal since scientists estimated, and outlined in a special 2018 IPCC report, the figure as the threshold beyond which the impacts of climate change would be more damaging, per
manent and difficult to address.
With the lag in action that has occurred since, the new report estimates that the chances of that goal being met are only 38%, and even that is possible only “when traveling the most ambitious pathway.”
The reality, Skea said, is that the greenhouse gas emissions known to be causing global warming have never been higher. In 2019, atmospheric concentrations of these molecules — that boost average temperatures by absorbing solar energy — was 12% higher than in 2010 and 54% higher than in 1990. The most common greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, primarily emitted through the burning of fossil fuels, though methane, nitrous oxide, fluorinated gases and water vapor also contribute to warming.
But while these results lock in some daunting challenges in terms of worsening drought, intensifying storms and heat, disruptions to agriculture and supply chains and more, the report still spells out hope if changes are implemented quickly.
“There is increased evidence of climate action,” Skea added. “An increased range of policies and laws have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced rates of deforestation and accelerated the deployment of renewable energy. And climate laws that result in reduced or avoided emissions are present in 56 countries covering more than half of global emissions.”
The path forward, according to authors now willing to make bolder statements than those typically issued by IPCC experts previously (though not as bold as some would like), is through rapid political shifts and a revolution in clean energy and electrification.
“Visionary political decisions and concrete actions are needed for the sake of the welfare of current and future generations and our biosphere,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, during Monday’s news conference. “I hope that this information will be used by the governments in different parts of the world to proceed with mitigation.”
The report offers four central, actionable takeaway messages for climate change mitigation:
Phase out fossil fuels
One reason the new report is able to take a bolder stance on necessary actions for climate mitigation than the previous, 5th report from Working Group III is that advances in clean energy technology have made the transition to renewable sources more logistically and economically feasible than what 2014 assessments anticipated.
This development led António Guterres, secretary-general of the United Nations, to conclude at Monday’s news conference that “investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure is moral and economic madness.”
The main source of the greenhouse gas emissions known to be driving rising average temperatures and cascading climate impacts is the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, primarily for transportation and energy use.
The IPCC report calls for a new goal of halving global emissions by the year 2030, and it estimates the goal can be met for less than $20 per ton of CO2equivalent. Costs of solar and wind energy and batteries have decreased by up to 85% since 2010, the report news release reads.
Yet investments in fossil fuel infrastructure maintenance or even expansion continue while funding renewable energy advances lags behind, despite promising climate and economic benefits. A report summary from the climate action nonprofit Climate Nexus estimates that public, private, domestic and international financing of renewables are currently three to six times lower than they must be to limit future warming to below even 2 degrees Celsius.
“This report tells us that we’re still not doing enough to cut greenhouse gas emissions,” said Inger Anderson, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, during Monday’s IPCC news conference. “The last decade showed the highest increase in greenhouse gas emissions, even though we know the trouble we are in.”
Cut and capture carbon
While reducing reliance on fossil fuels will help cut emissions, the report is firm that other options for lowering greenhouse gas concentrations must also be pursued.
Though less dense in the atmosphere than CO2, methane, or CH4, is a potent greenhouse gas. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that its warming influence is 25 times greater than that of CO2 over a 100-year period and that, in 2019, it accounted for 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions.
A majority of methane comes from agricultural activity, fossil fuel production and waste management. Improved use of already-available technologies to limit leaks from these sources could reduce methane emissions by 50% to 80%, the report’s summary for policymakers suggests.
The report also recommends that research into niche technologies for emissions reduction and carbon capture and storage continue. Trapping and removing greenhouse gases, such as CO2 and CH4, from the atmosphere or directly from their sources has enthusiastic supporters and skeptics. The IPCC report doesn’t label capture and storage a silver bullet, but encourages ongoing investments into possible options for safely sequestering emitted carbon deep underground or elsewhere.
“Overall, there is substantial potential for emissions reductions,” said Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, vice-chair of the working group and a professor of Environmental Sciences and Policy at the Central European University, at Monday’s news briefing. “But this depends on decarbonizing the power sector.”
Electrify everything
It follows that if nations phase out fossil fuels and focus on limiting greenhouse gas emissions, they will need another source of energy. The new report’s summary for policymakers spells out that any chance of limiting warming to non-catastrophic levels is a future in which “in 2050, almost all electricity is supplied from zero- or low-carbon sources, such as renewables or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, combined with increased electrification of energy demand.”
Urban environments, where large buildings could switch to using renewable energy and public transit could run on improved batteries, are the setting in which this shift would pay greatest dividends. Shipping, air and car travel could also eventually be electrified. The report recognizes challenges in the environmental impacts of mining the critical minerals needed for electric car batteries, but puts stock in technological advances minimizing those drawbacks to full electrification.
“The energy sector accounts for about a third of all emissions and major transitions are required to limit global warming,” Ürge-Vorsatz said Monday. “There is untapped potential here to bring down global emissions by between 40% and 70% by 2050, but only if the necessary policies, infrastructure and technologies are in place.”
The report’s conclusion on progress toward this goal since its last report, however, was less than sunny.
“On the green scorecard, we failed loud and clear,” Anderson said. “The solution has to be to kick-start the transition to renewable and cleaner sources of energy. We have the knowledge and the technology to get this done.”
In Arizona, the potential for solar energy expansion and its benefits not only for climate mitigation but also the economy and job production may be especially high, according to IPCC author and Northern Arizona University professor Kevin Gurney.
“Arizona is at the lead of what I see as the opportunity associated with climate change,” Gurney wrote in response to emailed interview questions. “We must be at the forefront of new green technology, better community design, and more equity in how the problem is tackled. There is an opportunity for jobs in new green technology. We must take advantage of that head-start and not allow politics and lack of vision to put us behind.”
Public engagement can make the difference politics hasn’t
Though not always stated in terms as specific as the need to divest from fossil fuels, reduce emissions and transition to renewable energy, the latest IPCC report was clear on how political inaction and lack of public pressure for it have paralyzed climate mitigation more than any limitation in technology, funding or scientific knowledge.
“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a livable future,” IPCC co-chair Hoesung Lee said in a statement released Monday. “There are policies, regulations and market instruments that are proving effective. If these are scaled up and applied more widely and equitably, they can support deep emissions reductions and stimulate innovation.”
This must be done with environmental justice in mind, Lee said. Recent reports from all three IPCC working groups have emphasized the many ways in which climate change is caused by higher-emitting individuals but felt most by lower-income ones. Mitigation efforts have the potential to benefit some Indigenous peoples, minority groups or other marginalized populations much less, or even have negative impacts if policy fails to keep all of humanity in mind.
“How can the world speed up emissions reductions in a just and equitable manner?” Lee said.