LET THE GAMES BEGIN
Here’s who is competing in significant – and dramatic – election races for the Arizona Legislature
Bitter rivalries. New political maps. Resignations by the bushel. Cakewalks, comeback attempts and first-time candidates.
While members of the Legislature still toil at the Capitol, the political races to determine who will fill their seats next year are more clear following a major deadline for potential candidates in the Aug. 2 primary.
And fans of political drama will get more than their fill.
Republicans have matchups that will test the power of the Trump contingent against more traditional conservatives. Democrats will have to nearly run the table just to keep the number of seats they currently have. The odds of their winning the majority in one or both chambers of the Legislature appear more remote than recent years, though if ultra-right Republicans win primaries those chances could improve.
At stake is Arizona’s future on education funding, taxes, housing, abortion, election laws, water conservation, gun rights and LGBTQ issues, among scores of other matters upon which lawmakers can exercise their substantial power.
By last week’s deadline, 69 candidates for 30 state Senate seats and 140 candidates for 60 House seats filed qualifying signatures in hopes of getting on the primary ballot.
Some may not survive the signature-challenge period, which ended Monday, but most will.
Here’s a look at races to watch, significant candidates and who’s leaving the Legislature, at least for now.
The outlook in ‘competitive’ districts
The 2021 Independent Redistricting Commission finished its mapping work in late December, producing new congressional and legislative district maps that shook up the political landscape.
With the new districts still untried by election, some are packed with competitors while others, including a couple of ostensibly competitive districts, have few candidates.
Making sure a few of Arizona’s 30 legislative districts were competitive – that is, they could be won by either party – was one of the mandated goals of the commission.
Five competitive legislative districts — determined by how Republicans and Democrats voted in nine statewide elections in three election cycles — emerged from the commission’s months-long work, but Democrats aren’t going all in on them in House races.
The competitive districts are 2, 4, 9, 13 and 16. Since each House district elects two representatives, Democrats could have fielded two candidates, both of which could theoretically win, according to the redistricting competitiveness estimate.
Legislative District 2 (North Phoenix) has five Republicans facing each other in the primary with only one Democratic candidate, incumbent Rep. Judy Schwiebert.
In Legislative District 4 (Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, North Scottsdale), six Republican primary competitors are in the running, including Matt
Gress, Gov. Ducey’s budget director and former one-term lawmaker Maria Syms. Three people signed up to run in the Democratic primary, but only one, teacher and community organizer Laura Terech, turned in qualifying signatures.
The situation is similar in two other competitive districts.
Legislative District 13 (Chandler and part of Gilbert), where five Republicans including far-right election conspiracy promoter Liz Harris will compete in the primary, has only one Democrat running — incumbent Jennifer Pawlik.
In Legislative District 16, (Gila and Ak-Chin Indian Communities, Casa Grande, county land west of Tucson), Teresa Martinez, who was appointed last year to replace Bret Roberts, will fight to keep her seat against two GOP competitors, Rob Hudelson and Braden Biggs. Only one Democrat, retired educator Keith Seaman, is running.
Having fewer Democratic candidates often is a strategy to better ensure at least one Democrat is elected into each competitive House district. That could help to move against the headwinds in what is forecast as a rough year for the party.
If Democrats running in all the competitive House districts were to win, along all Democrats in safe seats, the House would have a 30-30 split — an improvement from the current 31-29 GOP majority. If Democrats also took all five Senate seats in competitive districts, along with safe Democratic Senate seats there, they’d have a 17-13 majority in the chamber and could claim sole control of the agenda.
But even assuming all candidates were of even quality, that much winning is unlikely. All five competitive districts lean a little — or a lot — Republican, except for Legislative District 9 (West Mesa), which leans slightly Democratic.
The new competitive districts affected some Senate races, too.
Sens. Nancy Barto, a Republican, and Christine Marsh, a Democrat, serve different districts now, but redistricting puts them in the new, highly competitive Legislative District 4. Statewide Democratic candidates won in four of the nine races in the area, as the redistricting commission’s demographic and competitive data analysis found.
Marsh, a Democrat, won her race in 2020 against Kate Brophy McGee, a more moderate Republican than Barto, who this year sponsored bills that ban most abortions after 15 weeks and that prevent transgender girls from playing in competitive women’s school sports.
In Legislative District 2, Republican Rep. Steve Kaiser is trying to crossover to the Senate. He’ll face one of two Democratic competitors who make it through the primary, teacher Jeanne Casteen and Air Force veteran Victoria Thompson.
In Legislative District 9, incumbent Republican Sen. Tyler Pace will face a primary competitor, Robert Scantlebury, a retired Mesa police officer. The winner will try to stay ahead of Democratic challenger Eva Burch, a registered nurse, in the general election.
For the 13th district’s Senate seat, two politically inexperienced Democrats — Cynthia Hans and Michael Morris — will battle over who will try to unseat longtime incumbent Republican Sen. J.D. Mesnard, who’s served in the Legislature since first winning a House seat in 2010.
Incumbent T.J. Shope will try to keep his Senate seat from Republican contender Daniel Wood, a security company executive, in Legislative District 16. The winner will take on Democratic candidate Taylor Kerby, a teacher.
Candidates who likely already won
Some don’t face much competition as others. Some face none at all.
Republican Reps. Jaqueline Parker and Neal Carter, who was appointed last year to replace Frank Pratt, who died in September, have no opposition in Legislative District 15 (East Mesa, Queen Creek, San Tan Valley).
Reps. Andrés Cano and Alma Hernandez from Legislative District 20 (Central and West Tucson), face no Republicans and a single Libertarian, coffee company executive Doug Harding.
The Senate is where Arizona voters will take more of a back seat this year. Candidates in nine of 30 seats — nearly one-third — have no primary or general election opponent. These Senate candidates have already won, assuming they turned in enough valid signatures, no one runs against them as write-in candidates or no calamity befalls them: Democrats:
● Teresa Hatathlie, Legislative District 6 (North and east Arizona)
● Sally Ann Gonzales, Legislative District 20
● Rosanna Gabaldón, Legislative District 21 (Bisbee, Nogales, Arivaca)
● Raquel Terán, Legislative District 26 (West Phoenix, part of Glendale) Republicans:
● Warren Petersen, Legislative District 14 (Gilbert)
● Jake Hoffman, Legislative District
15
● David Gowan, Legislative District 19 (Safford, Sierra Vista, Douglas)
● Sine Kerr, Legislative District 25 (Buckeye, Wellton, southeast Yuma)
● Sonny Borrelli, Legislative District 30 (Lake Havasu City, Kingman)
Redistricting switcheroos
The new Legislative District 7 will result in must-watch races in both the House and Senate. It’s an expansive district that runs from Flagstaff to Snowflake, Show Low and Pinetop to the east, south to Globe and even further south to the portion of Apache Junction.
The Senate race will feature two wellknown Republican Arizona politicians, freshman Sen. Wendy Rogers and Sen. Kelly Townsend, who’s served in the Legislature since 2013. Rogers would have ended up in the Democratic stronghold of Legislative District 6 except for a last-minute change in the redistricting process that put her in a safe Republican district.
Rogers, who’s endorsed by Trump, and Townsend are on the same side when it comes to election issues — that is, both say they believe the 2020 presidential election was marred by massive fraud. Their work relationship was congenial up until last month, when Townsend ripped Rogers for praising Nick Fuentes, an activist who has espoused antisemitic and white nationalist views.
Townsend had planned to run for Congress, but changed her mind after Trump declined to give her an endorsement.
The Republican primary for Legislative District 7’s House race also pits Republicans who previously were in different districts. By law, legislators must live in their districts.
Brenda Barton, David Cook, and John Fillmore, who currently serve three different districts, will now all vie for two open seats along with political newcomer David Marshall Sr., a former California police officer and current pastor of the Cavalry Chapel Snowflake.
Other races pitting lawmakers who previously were in different districts include the Senate Democratic primary in Legislative District 22 (West Phoenix, Tolleson, Avondale), which will feature Rep. Richard Andrade versus Diego Espinoza, who now serve the House in two different west Valley districts.
In the new Legislative District 5 (Central Phoenix, parts of north and east Phoenix), three incumbent House Democrats in two different districts, Jennifer Longdon, Amish Shah, and the newly appointed Sarah Liguori, will vie for two seats against two other Democratic competitors, Aaron Marquez and Brianna Westbrook.
Rep. Kelli Butler, who is currently in the same district as Liguori, didn’t submit qualifying signatures.
11 have previously served
Eleven candidates vying for a seat in the Legislature have previously served there, bringing a wealth of experience — or political baggage — with them. These are the candidates who are seeking a return to office.
Senate
Ken Bennett is running for Senate in Legislative District 1 (Prescott, Yavapai County). He was the public face of the state Senate’s partisan audit of the 2020 election in Maricopa County, serving as its spokesperson and as a liaison between the Senate and the contractors hired to conduct the audit. He served in the state Senate, including two terms as Senate president, from 1998 to 2007. After appointed to Secretary of State in 2009, he won a four-year term to the office outright in 2010.
One of Bennett’s two Republican primary opponents in this year’s Senate race is Noel Campbell, a retired naval pilot and owner of the Chapel Inn in Prescott. He was first elected to the House in 2014 and reelected twice, but he didn’t seek office again in 2020. Campbell could face a controversial run given a December 2020 domestic violence incident with his wife.
The two former lawmakers face former California attorney Steve Zipperman in the Republican primary. Lone Democrat Mike Fogel is headed for the general election ballot in the heavily Republican district.
In Legislative District 3 (North Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Fountain Hills), Republican Darin Mitchell, who owns a home inspection business, served three terms in the Arizona House after voters first elected him in 2012.
He’s trying to unseat incumbent Rep. Joseph Chaplik along with three other candidates: Alexander Kolodin (a lawyer who’s represented Cyber Ninjas and the Arizona Republican party, Ernest Anderson, and Nicole Cantelme.
David Farnsworth, who served in the Legislature in the 1990s and then later in the 2010s, came out from political retirement and will challenge current House Speaker Rusty Bowers, promising an epic primary matchup for the Senate seat in Legislative District 10 (East Mesa, parts of Apache Junction) between two Republican heavyweights.
Farnsworth, who said in 2019 he believes Arizona foster kids were sold into a worldwide sex-trafficking ring, is positioning himself to the political right of Bowers, who some fringe Republicans now see as “Republican In Name Only.”
Bowers, who’s term-limited in the House, has a long record of conservative politics but angered Trump supporters and election conspiracy theorists by failing to work with former President Trump’s team to try to overturn the 2020 election. Bowers was also a critic of the Senate’s audit of the election in Maricopa County.
Whoever wins the primary will cruise to victory, since the race in the Republican-heavy district has no Democratic candidates.
Democrat Catherine Miranda is making another try to return to the state Senate in the new Legislative District 11 (South Phoenix, Laveen). Voters gave her two terms as a representative 2010 and 2012, then two terms as a senator in 2014 and 2016. She gave her up her seat in 2018 to run against Ruben Gallego in Congressional District 7, but lost. She tried unsuccessfully to get back to the Senate in 2020.
Some Democrats won’t forgive Miranda for endorsing Republican Gov. Doug Ducey in 2014, but politics runs deep for her. She’s the wife of former lawmaker Ben Miranda and brother-inlaw to former lawmaker Richard Miranda. She’s faced a primary challenge in 2016 from her daughter-in-law, Miranda Maritza Saenz. In 2018, her ex-husband Roberto Sanchez and and Ben Miranda’s nephew, Cipriano-Gabriel Miranda, ran for seats in the House and Senate.
Miranda has two challengers in the primary: digital media professional Junelle Cavero and Black Mothers Forum, Inc. founder Janelle Woods. The winner likely will face an easy challenge in the Democratic-heavy district from Republican Maryn Brannies, a kettle-corncompany owner and former Army sergeant.
Republican Anthony Kern, a former three-term House member who lost his seat in 2020, now wants voters to hand him a Senate seat in Legislative District 27 (Peoria, Glendale north Phoenix). He’s among the state’s top promoters of 2020 election conspiracy claims and helped count ballots in the partisan review of the 2020 election in Maricopa County.
After Trump lost the election, Kern and other Republican lawmakers signed a letter asking Congress to toss Arizona’s electoral college votes. A photo from Jan. 6, 2021, shows Kern on the steps of the U.S. Capitol wearing a coat and tie.
Kern, a private investigator, was first elected in 2014, around the time the city of El Mirage fired him from a code enforcement job he had held for about 10 years. The city had accused him of lying about reimbursing the city for a tablet computer, among other alleged violations, and the Maricopa County Attorney’s Office placed him on the “Brady List” of law enforcement whose dishonesty might harm court cases.
Jamie Kelly, a public relations professional, is challenging Kern in the primary, and with no Democrats in the race, whoever wins will go on to take the seat.
House
Republican Syms, a Paradise Valley attorney, was a longtime Paradise Valley Town Council member but resigned after she won a seat in the Legislature in 2016. Syms’ politics were hard-right: she criticized the Red for Ed movement, writing in an opinion column that its leaders were part of a socialist movement and a threat to children. Her reelection campaign in 2018 went poorly in her swing district.
She’s running in the above-mentioned six-way GOP primary in Legislative District 4 (Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, North Scottsdale), whose winner will face Terech in the general election.
Republican Laurin Hendrix, a businessman, land developer and partner in a longtime Gilbert cabinet company, is running in Legislative District 14 (Gilbert). He was elected to the House in 2008, then denied reelection in the 2010 primary. He went on to win a seat on the Maricopa County Community College District Governing Board in 2016, then won a term on the Gilbert Town Council in 2020. He’ll have to resign his council role if voters put him in the Legislature.
He’s running in a four-way primary with political newcomers Natalie DiBernardo and Suzanne Lunt to try to unseat incumbent Rep. Travis Grantham. One Democrat, Brandy Reese, awaits the winner in the general election.
Democrat Lydia Hernandez, who’s trying for a House seat in Legislative District 24 (West Phoenix, Glendale), is a longtime Cartwright Elementary School District board member who served one term in the House after voters elected her in 2012. She tried unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2014 and 2016, and made an unsuccessful bid for a Phoenix City Council seat in 2019.
Finally, former lawmaker Steve Montenegro is one off our GOP primary candidates for the House in the Republicanleaning Legislative District 29 (West Phoenix, Surprise).
Montenegro served served four terms in the House after being elected in 2008, and was majority leader for two years. In 2016, voters gave him a seat in the state Senate. He resigned to run for Congress in 2018 and was considered a front-runner, but his campaign hit a setback when a Senate staffer revealed that she and Montenegro, a married
Christian minister, had an online relationship. He came in third.
Bent on returning to the Legislature, he ran for the House in 2020 but came in third in the Republican primary. He later found work for the Trump-supporting group The America Project, helping to run the controversial Twitter account of the Senate’s partisan election review.
He’s running for the House against three political newcomers: Hop Nguyen, a computer programmer and church minister; Austin Smith, enterprise director for Turning Point Action, the political advocacy arm for the pro-Trump group Turning Point USA; and Trey Terry, an Army veteran and elected member of the Agua Fria Union High School District Governing Board who previously ran for the House in 2018.
Air Force veteran Scott Podeyn is running as a Democrat.
Challengers seeking upsets
Several incumbents face a horde of competitors from their own party who seek to replace them. Winning even one seat of two might be tough for some of those currently in the Legislature.
Republican Rep. Quang Nguyen of Prescott Valley, who’s in his first term, faces four Republican primary opponents in Legislative District 1.
Democratic Rep. Lorenzo Sierra of Tucson, who first won election to the House in 2018, will face three Democratic primary competitors in Legislative District 22.
Democratic Rep. Marcelino Quiñonez of Phoenix, who was appointed last year to replace Diego Rodriguez, will face six Democratic primary competitors in Legislative District 11.
Republican Rep. John Kavanagh of Fountain Hills, who’s served in the Legislature since 2007, is running for Senate in the new Legislative District 3, and faces political newcomer Jan Dubauskas of Scottsdale. She collected the second highest total for contributions in 2021 for a legislative candidate (behind Wendy Rogers.)
Sen. Vince Leach of Tucson, who’s served in the Legislature since 2015, is facing two Republican competitors for the new Legislative District 17 (Oro Valley, Marana): Robert Barr and Justine Wadsack.
Democratic Sen. Lela Alston of Phoenix, the longest-serving lawmaker in Arizona, began her career in the state Senate in 1977, where she stayed until 1994. Voters elected her to the House in 2010, then back to the Senate in 2018. She’ll face two Democrats, Sarah Tyree and Al Jones, in the primary for the Legislative District 5 Senate seat.
Lawmakers leaving (for now)
While the coming elections will change things up, the ongoing Great Resignation, new jobs, aspiration to higher offices, and term limits means the 2023 crop of lawmakers will lack nearly two dozen familiar faces.
And that’s on top of the 11 lawmakers who died or quit their position and were replaced by appointed members last year.
Twenty-two lawmakers (nine Republicans and 13 Democrats) currently serving this year will not return to the Legislature next year, including eight who are running for higher office. House members not returning:
● Jasmine Blackwater-Nygren, DTeec Nos Pos
● Walter Blackman, R-Snowflake (running for Congress in Congressional District 2)
● Reginald Bolding, D-Laveen (running for secretary of state)
● Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix, (running for secretary of state)
● Kelli Butler, D-Paradise Valley
● Regina Cobb, R-Kingman
● Andrea Dalessandro, D-Green Valley
● Mark Finchem, R-Oro Valley (running for secretary of state)
● Daniel Hernandez, D-Tucson (running for Congress in Congressional District 6)
● Jennifer Jermaine, D-Chandler (running for justice of the peace – San Marcos)
● Robert Meza, D-Phoenix (running for Justice of the Peace – West Mesa)
● Pamela Powers Hannley, D-Tucson
● Michell Udall, R-Mesa (running for state superintendent of public instruction)
● Jeff Weninger, R-Chandler (running for treasurer)
Senate members not returning:
● Sean Bowie, D-Phoenix
● Paul Boyer, R-Glendale
● Karen Fann, R-Prescott
● Rick Gray, R-Sun City
● Lisa Otondo, D-Yuma
● Martin Quezada, D-Glendale (running for treasurer)
● Rebecca Rios, D-Phoenix (running for justice of the peace - South Mountain)
● Victoria Steele, D-Tucson
For the state’s complete list of qualifying legislative candidates, go to https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/ elections/2022-primary-election/legislative/2520/32/0.
To see the new maps that will be used in this year’s elections and look up an address or place on them, go to https://irc-az.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ instant/lookup/index.html?appid= 424810a4667049388ef6df4f0c73098b.