Arizona’s COVID-19 deaths near 29,900 in latest report

Arizona’s coronavirus case and death numbers were low in the state’s latest weekly report, but the picture for hospitalizations was less clear because of changes in hospital reporting after the state’s emergency declaration ended.

Health officials on Wednesday reported 2,377 new COVID-19 cases and 29 new known deaths over the weeklong period ending April 16.

More than 2,100 new cases were added from tests done during the past week, state data shows, slightly higher than the few weeks prior but generally continuing recent weeks’ lower case reports compared to previous months. Case numbers in recent months are likely not showing the full picture of infections as many more people have been using at-home test kits and may not be reporting their positives to county health departments.

Reported cases since the pandemic began are at more than 2 million. Known deaths in Arizona are nearing 29,900.

Wednesday marked the eighth of the weekly updates to the state’s data dashboard, instead of daily updates that Arizonans became accustomed to following for the latest data on infections, illnesses and deaths.

The previous week’s update added 2,777 cases and 142 deaths, compared with 6,840 cases and 413 deaths, 10,143 cases (high because of a reporting catch-up) and 385 deaths, 4,566 cases and 336 deaths, 5,153 cases and 457 deaths, 6,549 cases and 382 deaths, and 9,647 cases and 449 deaths the six weeks prior.

This week’s update shows the differences between data reported for the week of April 10-16 and the week of April 3-9.

Health officials say moving to weekly updates matches how public health monitors trends and other disease reporting.

Case numbers have been declining significantly in recent weeks, and public health experts estimate cases of the highly contagious omicron variant peaked in Arizona around mid-January.

The state data dashboard no longer shows key hospitalization information since Gov. Doug Ducey ended the COVID-19 emergency declaration on March 30. State health officials said hospitals aren’t required to report some COVID-19 surveillance data to the state anymore, meaning certain graphs showing weekly hospitalization levels for the disease and bed usage by COVID-19 patients are no longer updated.

Hospitalizations for the disease had been dropping steadily since late January.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention still reports state hospitalization data for Arizona and showed a 24% decrease in the seven-day average of COVID-19 hospital admissions from April 11-17 compared with April 4-10. Hospital admissions last week were down 94% from the peak seven-day average in early January 2021.

The number of known deaths in the state was at 29,852 as of Wednesday, after passing 29,000 known deaths in the March 30 update, 28,000 deaths in the March 9 update, 27,000 deaths on Feb. 10 and 26,000 deaths on Jan. 28. The

state surpassed 25,000 deaths on Jan. 13. Deaths are now reported with a fourweek lag.

Arizona’s overall pandemic death rate since early 2020 is third-highest nationwide.

State data on breakthrough infections

The state in December began publicly disclosing data on breakthrough COVID-19 infections, and state officials say the data underscores the effectiveness of the vaccine — especially for people with booster doses.

The vast majority of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are among people not fully vaccinated and boosted.

Data from February show that 30.2% of cases, 24.9% of hospitalizations and 25.7% of COVID-19 deaths were among fully vaccinated people without a booster, with most of the rest among unvaccinated people. Fully vaccinated people with a booster made up 17.4% of reported cases, 11% of hospitalizations and 9.6% of deaths in February.

Unvaccinated adults in Arizona had a 4.9 times greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19, 29 times greater risk of hospitalization from COVID-19 and 59 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 in February compared with fully vaccinated people with a booster, according to state data.

Unvaccinated adults had a 3.9 times greater risk of testing positive, 11 times greater risk of hospitalization and 14 times greater risk of dying from COVID-19 compared with individuals who were fully vaccinated without a booster.

As of Wednesday, there had been 1,867 breakthrough deaths in fully vaccinated individuals, according to state health officials’ preliminary data, which works out to a breakthrough death rate of 0.04% among fully vaccinated people.

Case rates and death reports

The omicron variant and the BA.2 version of omicron are still contributing to many of the cases in Arizona, according to results from sequencing labs.

Percent positivity, which refers to the percentage of COVID-19 diagnostic tests that are positive, varies somewhat based on how it’s measured. It was high in recent months, a sign of more community spread, but has been gradually decreasing.

For most of December, Arizona’s percent positivity for COVID-19 testing was at 11%-13%, before rising to 22% for the week of Dec. 26, 29% for the week of Jan. 2, 32% for the week of Jan. 9, 34% for the week of Jan. 16, 29% for the week of Jan. 23, 22% for the week of Jan. 30, 16% for the week of Feb. 6, 11% for the week of Feb. 13, 7% for the week of Feb. 20, 4% for the week of Feb. 27, 3% for the week of Mar. 6, 3% for the week of Mar. 13, 3% for the week of Mar. 20, 3% for the week of Mar. 27, 3% for the week of April 3 and 4% for the week of April 10. The percentages are now for all diagnostic tests conducted, rather than for unique individuals tested, following a change to the state dashboard.

A positivity rate of 5% or less is considered a good benchmark that the disease’s spread is under control.

The state’s overall COVID-19 death and case rates since Jan. 21, 2020 still remain among the worst in the country.

The COVID-19 death rate in Arizona since the pandemic began is 409 deaths per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the CDC, putting it third in the country in a state ranking that separates New York City from New York state. The U.S. average is 297 deaths per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the CDC.

New York City has the highest death rate, at 478 deaths per 100,000 people, followed by Mississippi at 417.

Arizona’s first known death from the disease occurred in mid-March 2020.

Many of the reported deaths occurred days or weeks before because of reporting delays and death certificate matching.

A total of 2,019,174 COVID-19 cases had been identified across the state through April 16.

Vaccination update

Arizonans ages five and older are eligible for the Pfizer vaccine, while the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are approved for those 18 and older. Many individuals are eligible for booster doses, too.

The state reported nearly 5.1 million people in Arizona — about 70.6% of the total state population — had received at least one vaccine dose through April 16, with nearly 4.4 million residents fully vaccinated against COVID-19. The state’s data dashboard now separates out doses administered to Arizona residents versus all doses administered in the state.

Arizona’s rate of fully vaccinated people out of the total population is 61.3%, which is behind the national rate of 66%, according to the CDC as of Tuesday.

Out of the vaccine-eligible population, people ages five and older, 65.2% of those in Arizona are fully vaccinated, compared with 70.1% at the national

level, CDC data shows.

Health experts strongly recommend booster shots for those eligible, especially with the omicron variant spreading. About 44.7% of fully vaccinated Arizonans over the age of 18 had received a booster shot as of Tuesday, below the national rate of 49% for that same age group.

What to know about latest numbers

Reported cases in Arizona: 2,019,174, as of April 16.

Cases by county: 1,275,525 in Maricopa; 254,407 in Pima; 132,295 in Pinal; 62,659 in Yuma; 57,401 in Mohave; 47,983 in Yavapai; 43,638 in Coconino; 38,200 in Navajo; 31,452 in Cochise; 22,369 in Apache; 17,200 in Gila; 16,662 in Santa Cruz; 11,961 in Graham; 5,206 in La Paz; and 2,216 in Greenlee, according to state numbers.

The rate of cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began is highest in Navajo County, followed by Santa Cruz, Gila, Apache, Graham and Maricopa counties, according to state data. The rate in Navajo County is 33,858 cases per 100,000 people. By comparison, the U.S. average rate since the pandemic began is 24,255 cases per 100,000 people as of Tuesday, according to the CDC.

The Navajo Nation reported 53,221 cases and 1,741 confirmed deaths as of Tuesday. The Navajo Nation includes parts of Arizona, New Mexico and Utah.

The Arizona Department of Corrections reported 14,857 inmates had tested positive for COVID-19 as of Wednesday, including 2,474 in Tucson, 2,280 in Eyman, 2,234 in Yuma, 1,715 in Lewis and 1,170 in Phoenix; 54,990 inmates statewide have been tested. A total of 5,008 prison staff members have selfreported testing positive, the department said. Fifty-eight incarcerated people in Arizona have been confirmed to have died of COVID-19, with 15 additional deaths under investigation.

The race/ethnicity breakdown of cases since the start of the pandemic in 2020 has been 40% white, 29% Hispanic or Latino, 5% American Indian, 4% Black and 2% Asian/Pacific Islander. Race/ethnicity of positive cases since the onset of the pandemic is unknown in 14% of cases, and listed as other race in 6% of cases.

Of those who have tested positive in Arizona since the start of the pandemic, about 21% were younger than 20, 42% were 20-44, 13% were 45-54, 11% were 55-64 and 12% were age 65 or older.

Laboratories had completed 19,150,645 total diagnostic tests for COVID-19 as of April 16, 12.1% of which have come back positive. That number includes both PCR and antigen testing. Percent positivity was at 4% for the week of April 10. The state numbers leave out data from labs that do not report electronically.

The state Health Department includes probable cases as anyone with a positive antigen test, another type of test to determine infection. Antigen tests (not related to antibody tests) use a nasal swab or another fluid sample to test for current infection. Results are typically produced within 15 minutes.

A positive antigen test result is considered very accurate, but there’s an increased chance of false-negative results, Mayo Clinic officials said. They say a doctor may recommend a PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test to confirm a negative antigen test result.

Arizona as of Tuesday had the 11th highest overall case rate in the country since Jan. 21, 2020. Ahead of Arizona in cases per 100,000 people since the pandemic began are Alaska, Rhode Island, North Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah, South Carolina, Guam, New York City and West Virginia, according to the CDC.

Arizona’s infection rate is 27,708 cases per 100,000 people, according to the CDC. The national average is 24,255 cases per 100,000 people, although the rates in states hard hit early in the pandemic may be an undercount because of a lack of available testing in March and April 2020.

Reported deaths in Arizona: 29,852

Deaths by county: 17,103 in Maricopa; 3,803 in Pima; 1,645 in Pinal; 1,435 in Mohave; 1,195 in Yavapai; 1,167 in Yuma; 902 in Navajo; 608 in Apache; 564 in Cochise; 472 in Coconino; 379 in Gila; 228 in Santa Cruz; 176 in Graham; 143 in La Paz; and 32 in Greenlee.

People age 65 and older make up 21,172 of the 29,852 deaths, or 71%. About 16% of deaths were among people 55-64 years old, 8% were 45-54 and 6% were 20-44 years old.

While race/ethnicity was unknown for 4% of deaths, 56% of those who died were white, 26% were Hispanic or Latino, 7% were Native American, 3% were Black and 1% were Asian/Pacific Islander, the state data shows.