GOP teacher pay plan has Democrats gnashing teeth

Republican legislators last week unveiled a proposal to give Arizona’s public school teachers a 7% pay raise — one that likely would boost their pay to near the national average.

Already the knives are out.

Save Our Schools Arizona promptly pronounced the proposal “unacceptable” and “a shell game that in real dollars represents deep cuts to K-12 schools.” This, even before the bill has been written and the details analyzed.

Meanwhile, the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee called the proposal “half baked” and harrumphed that Republicans are trying to “rewrite their history on supporting public schools.”

Which might be true. But it’s also code for, “Drat those Republicans. We’ve been outflanked.”

I understand the skepticism,given two decades of Republican tax cuts that left the state unable to adequately fund education.

But opponents to this plan should take a breath.

Sure, there are politics afoot. The GOP teacher-pay proposal would be on the November 2024 ballot just as Democrats hope to grab the Legislature.

But why so quickly dismiss a plan that just might give the state’s woefully underpaid teachers relief?

The plan comes courtesy of Senate President Warren Petersen, with an assist from Rep. Matt Gress, who earlier this year proposed boosting teacher pay by $10,000 over the next two years — a plan that the Democrats also immediately blasted.

The new plan calls for asking voters next year to renew the soon-to-expire Proposition 123, which provides $300 million a year for schools from the state land trust.

The money then would be earmarked for teacher pay raises rather than general school expenses.

Gress says the state would replace the $300 million for general expenses with general fund revenues so the schools don’t lose any money. That backfill agreement already exists in the current three-year budget plan — though, of course, the Legislature isn’t obligated until the time comes to spend that money.

Though the state is facing a projected $850 million shortfall this year and next – courtesy of a state income tax cut, a runaway school voucher program and this year’s $2.5 billion shopping spree that exhausted the state surplus – Gress predicts we’ll be back in the black by fiscal 2026, when the backfill funding would kick in.

Opponents, meanwhile, say the plan would lead to deep school funding cuts given triggers that allow for reduced spending in the event the K-12 budget exceeds 49% of the general fund. That’s something legislative budget analysts say could happen in fiscal 2026.

Gress, who was Gov. Doug Ducey’s budget director, dismisses that as “highly unlikely.”

“Even if the trigger could be pulled in fiscal year 2026, the majority of the Legislature and the governor would have to sign off on that,” he told me.

That doesn’t seem likely in an election year.

What does seem likely is that if Arizona doesn’t do something, we’re soon going to be sending little Mateo and Emma into empty classrooms. (Or more likely, overloaded classrooms devoid of experienced teachers.)

Right now, we spend tens of millions every year to support aspiring teachers, only to see 40% of them quit during their first four years, according to state Department of Education.

By Year 9, 63% are gone.

The Republican plan would provide an extra $4,000 a year to teachers, increasing average pay to about $60,000 a year.

Yet here is the Arizona Education Association, the union that represents them, giving the proposal the stink eye because they want support staff included in any proposed raise.

Yeah, that won’t happen. Republicans are still furious that a previous 20% pay hike intended for teachers amounted to only 16% once school boards got done divvying up the funds.

And here are the Democrats, gnashing their teeth because those wily Republicans want to raise teacher pay in an election year ... oh, the unfairness of it all.

“Arizona Republicans have held control of the state for decades — and as a result — the teacher retention crisis has spiraled out of control,” Elsa O’Callaghan, executive director of the Democrats’ campaign committee, said. “Now, one year before control of the legislature slips through their fingers — they are deciding to act.”

You almost get the feeling Democrats are against raising teacher pay on Republicans’ watch.

Republicans have made a smart move. They propose raising teacher pay while marketing themselves as pro-public education, just in time for a crucial election that will determine who controls the Legislature come 2025.

And they can do so bypassing Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs and sending the proposal directly to the ballot.

Never mind that it is their policies and priorities that have led to the dismal pay and prompted the teacher exodus.

The Republicans’ plan isn’t perfect — or enough, really, to make up for decades of neglect.

But it just might be doable, and that is something, given a Legislature that has hardly been a friend to public education.

For those who oppose this proposal out of hand, I’d ask this:

What is the (realistic) alternative?