New Year’s Day sees third-highest smoke levels for Phoenix since 2011

Phoenix rang in the new year with record-high smoke levels, thanks in part to ground-based and aerial fireworks. Still, fresher air may be on the horizon, Arizona Department of Environmental Quality officials said Wednesday.

In a social media post to X, formerly known as Twitter, the department shared that smoke levels were the highest throughout the Valley since reliable records began in 2010 and were the third highest since 2011 when the clock struck midnight.

But Valley residents could see a reprieve when a wet weather system rolls into the region.

Prior to New Year’s Day, ADEQ meteorologist Matt Pace forecasted a bleak start to the year, posting a PM 2.5 — known as a smoke forecast — at 176 or unhealthy air quality for the day, exceeding the federal health standard.

“At the levels we’re forecasting on New Year’s Day, everyone can begin to experience impacts,” Pace said in his prior forecast.

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What is Phoenix’s air quality forecast moving forward?

As of Wednesday, ADEQ reported dust and smoke concentration levels in the Phoenix area receding thanks to “an active upper-level pattern” bringing multiple shots at rain for the metro.

Moderate levels of PM 10, or dust, and PM 2.5, smoke, were slated for Wednesday at 55 and 60, respectively, before dust concentrations dip while smoke levels linger in the mid-50s until Sunday.

“Air quality will be good across the board on Sunday due to this rain potential with highs remaining below 50 degrees,” ADEQ Air Quality meteorologist Brody Droppleman said in the forecast.

Why is air quality so poor?

Due to the increased levels of ground-based and aerial fireworks as well as wood burning, smoke levels saw a drastic rise on the year’s inaugural day.

“In 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2021, New Year’s Day air quality ended up in the Very Unhealthy AQI category,” Pace said in the department’s forecast.

The AQI tends to be so poor these days that since 2014, only a 2018 dust storm has produced worse air quality for the Phoenix area than in 2021.